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Thread: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    From what I have read Dunn and the Reds have had no talks regarding a LTC.
    I suspect he will hit the market and get more than the Reds want to pay.
    Carlos Lee got 6/$100M two years ago and is a big stick DH in left field like Dunn. With no Dunn the Reds have holes in LF, CF/RF & catcher.
    We also have below average defense at SS with Kep, an enigma at 3B in EE, holes in the pitching staff and other issues. I have been thinking how Jocketty would go about 'blowing it up' if he chose to:

    1. Dunn is shopped for a return better than the draft picks we will get. If the offers are poor we offer him a reasonable contract in the offseason and take the picks if he walks.

    2. Junior. Most realize he is a goner after 2008. If he wants to play for a ring find a match in the AL where he can DH and get whatever we can for him.
    He really needs to be a DH.

    3. Weathers won't be back. if we can get anything for him do it.

    4. Arroyo. should go in the rebuilding plan but not for a 'fire sale' return. A rotation of Harang plus the kids could use another innings eating veteran so Arroyo's 200+ IP has value. That being said if he pitches well he could have real value at the deadline and we could try to sign a cheap vet this offseason.

    5. Affeldt. he is 29 yrs old and has piched decently. i would try to work out a reasonable extention if he continues to do well this year

    6. Cordero has a no trade clause for 2008/2009 so he isn't going anywhere unless he wants to. a closer is a luxury for a rebuilding team but losing too much becomes a habit so it is nice to win the games where you are leading late. he stays for now unless he wants to go

    7. Certain guys won't be back and have no trade value - Javy, Patterson, Merker, etc

    8. Gonzales could go but needs to prove he is healthy first

    9. Freel goes if healthy and anyone wants him.

    10. Hairston could be reupped if he continues his 2008 play. again do it reasonably not 'krivsky style'


    Keepers:
    Bruce
    EE - Kep/Janish - Phillips - Votto
    Harang & the young starters.
    Cordero - Burton -Bray - maybe Affeldt.
    Bench guys like - maybe Hairston, likely Freel, Gonzo if we can't deal him, some backup catcher.


    Needs:
    1. young catcher
    2. one young outfielder who plays CF or RF ( preferrably a CF )
    3. another outfielder ( LF ) or a 1B with Votto moving to LF. this could be a fill in vet for a year or so
    4. talent

    Looking at what we have to trade it isn't much.
    What Walt could get for Dunn or Arroyo at the deadline is crucial to the 'blow it up' plan. Most of the Reds non pitching prospects are in A/A+ which means they are a 2-3 years away. If Dunn goes for draft picks then those picks are also years away. it would be nice to see walt be able to trade for a catcher and centerfielder who are in AA/AAA. that would speed up the rebuiling process.


    Thoughts?
    .

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  3. #2
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    Two quick, related points:

    1.) The Oakland scenario. They "blew it up" this year, trading their best pitcher and best position player for prospects. They are 5 games above .500 and have a better pythagorean record than the division leading Angels.

    2.) The housing crisis / credit crunch: Both of these related economic issues are predicated on the same sort of cycles we see in baseball. Good fundamentals can lead to speculation, which leads to unrealistic expectations, which leads to inappropriate risks, which leads to an eventual bursting bubble, which leads to a recession as the fundamentals take time to solidify again.

    These are quite related. Done well, the rebuilding cycle can be extremely quick. Cut off your push the moment you realize it is in vein and start rebuilding. The earlier you do it, the more value you get in return, the stronger your actual base still is, and the shorter the recovery period. Done excellently, there is no such thing as a cycle -- you are always rebuilding, and always winning.

    The Reds are past the point when they should have rebuilt. Actually an argument can be made that they have never realized that the 2000 push was a failure and have been in perpetual need of a rebuild since. Instead, they've tried to walk a tightrope unsuccessfully. Luckily, the fundamentals are fairly solid right now. While we don't have a ton of assets to move, a few shrewd moves and another year of maturation from our youth could put us in a fairly strong position for 2009.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    I think it would be almost impossible just to get anyone to take Freel or AGon off our hands. They are both hurt. Freel had a little spurt of playing well, but it's going to be hard to convince anyone that he's an everyday player. The price for bench players has fallen to earth last winter. Both are going to be grossly overpaid next season.

    If we don't resign Dunn, I think we need to trade for a big bat, even if that means giving up prospects. Ideally, Walt pulls another Edmunds type deal

    If Dunn is removed from this lineup next year and not replaced with a comparable bat(s), this team is truly going to be awful next year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I think it would be almost impossible just to get anyone to take Freel or AGon off our hands. They are both hurt.
    agree

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If we don't resign Dunn, I think we need to trade for a big bat, even if that means giving up prospects. Ideally, Walt pulls another Edmunds type deal

    If Dunn is removed from this lineup next year and not replaced with a comparable bat(s), this team is truly going to be awful next year.
    that isn't the 'blow it up plan' , that is the 'we can contend with some moves' plan.

    i would prefer the blow it up plan because i feel that we are too far away from being a real contender. a team that can win 85+ games yearly and make the playoffs a lot. think of the 1987-1995 team or the 1995-2006 Cards. we can trade some prospects for need when we are closer to being a team that can win more than we lose each year
    .

  6. #5
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    I hear often enough that veteran managers like Freels hustle and spunk. You won't get major value, but I think someone would give you something just for his 'intensity'.

    Dunn reportedly told the Reds he'd be open to LTC in Spring Training and they didn't broach the topic. Its not clear if he wanted it done in ST and won't discuss it now, but that sounded like what was being said when you listened between the lines.

    This team doesn't need 'blown up'.

    This team needs to put its best players out there and maybe make one real trade, one big trade. That may even mean Dunn, but its not necessary.

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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    How to Blow it Up, C. 2008:

    1. Trade Aaron Harang, David Weathers, SS Jeff Keppinger, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, and Adam Dunn to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Adam LaRoche, OF Matt Kemp, P Clayton Kershaw, RP Jonathan Broxton, P Jon Meloan, and High A C Carlos Santana.
    Reds get rid of roughly $25 million salary and get back a high-octane bullpen (in Meloan and Broxton), two sluggers ready right now for the bigs (CF Kemp and 3B LaRoche), and a stud catching prospect (Santana) and pitching prospect (Kershaw). Dodgers grab a starting 3B, SS, LF, and an ace to go along with a veteran reliever for now.

  8. #7
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    How to Blow it Up, C. 2008:

    1. Trade Aaron Harang, David Weathers, SS Jeff Keppinger, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, and Adam Dunn to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Adam LaRoche, OF Matt Kemp, P Clayton Kershaw, RP Jonathan Broxton, P Jon Meloan, and High A C Carlos Santana.
    Reds get rid of roughly $25 million salary and get back a high-octane bullpen (in Meloan and Broxton), two sluggers ready right now for the bigs (CF Kemp and 3B LaRoche), and a stud catching prospect (Santana) and pitching prospect (Kershaw). Dodgers grab a starting 3B, SS, LF, and an ace to go along with a veteran reliever for now.
    this kind of trade would be a great one for the Reds. it is the kind of overwhelming offer we would need to trade Harang.
    .

  9. #8
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    "He blowed up, he blowed up real good"

    The idea of building a winning team means that at some point you have some good players and some bad ones on your way to replacing the bad ones with more good ones. I am not sure I would call blowing it up.

    Bailey should be working on his pitching in AAA (he may make that possible soon). The Reds need another #1 starter and have to figure out how to get one. They need a LF and a CF and maybe a catcher. Two more BP arms, one to replace Weathers and another to help Burton and Bray get to Cordero.

    They need a bench.
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  10. #9
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    that isn't the 'blow it up plan', that is the 'we can contend with some moves' plan.
    And that is what Walt needs to do. And the direction he will take IMHO. To blow something up means to obliterate everything, and there are some very sound pieces on this team IMHO.

    The bad pieces are dragging down the good pieces. And those bad pieces, for the most part, will be gone due to contracts/obligations ending at this season's conclusion. Guys like Jr, Weathers, Fogg, Mercker, Patterson, Belisle, Valentin, as well as some others, will be gone. You also complete your obligations to guys like Hatteberg, Stanton, and Castro.

    Clear out the dead wood, free up the money needed to go into that market, and identify/address those glaring needs. But there is no need to blow it up.

    But it has to be done (addressed) in an incremental sense IMO. Some very positive steps forward can be made going into the '09 season.

    The main thing for Walt..... minimize the bad moves.

    Some ideas I've pondered on?

    Move Phillips to SS in the off-season. Or if they are going to write the 08 season off, then do it when Kepp comes back and move him to his natural position of 2B.

    You can then make a decision on Gonzo. If you can trade him, then trade him. If not, he'll be on the last year of his contract next season. Use him off the bench while dangling him out there.

    3B? EE has shown improved defense. His bat is very erratic/streaky. I don't see where this as pressing a need as other areas right now.

    Continue to show patience throughout this season with kids like Cueto and Bailey. Let them pitch. Not only to gain the invaluable experience; but in Bailey's case to see what you have. It's time for him to step up and show us he has what it takes (or not). Demoting him isn't going to help anything IMO. If he ain't got it, or isn't the answer, then lets find out.

    How about trying to acquire Bedard, who I hear Seattle is going to try and deal by the deadline?

    I don't have any idea what direction this FO is taking with Adam Dunn. But if they are thinking of letting him walk and simply getting the draft picks, or entertaining trading him for the right deal, then why not dangle him before Seattle for Bedard? I know they are fed up with Sexson.

    I would then listen to offers for Arroyo. People are always looking for pitching.

    Make a decision on where Bruce is going to play. If it's RF, then you have to go into the market and get that CFer. And if you're letting Dunn walk, as well as Jr, then you should have the money to do so.

    And if you move Votto to LF, then you have to find a 1bman. This Alonso kid hasn't proven anything yet at the ML level, and is 2 years away if anything. So he's not even part of the equation right now. But how about moving EE to 1B with Gonzo at 3rd? Or maybe even Gonzo at 1B till we find other options or Alonso shows us something? You want a sound glove/defense at 1B.

    The catching position. It seems to have become a lean position, for the most part, throughout MLB where teams are platooning. We don't need three catchers on this team, and I don't know what there is in the market. If anything. No, I'm not happy with Ross, Valentin, and Bako. Valentin should be gone at season's end. But I'd exercise the team option on Ross for '09 (3.5 mil), and if not Bako, then look to find that viable replacement somewhere. Again - I just don't see many immediate catching solutions popping up in the market.

    There are some sound pieces shaping up in this rotation and bullpen. Guys like Weathers, Mercker, and Lincoln will be gone. I'd retain guys like Burton, Affeldt, Bray, and even Majewski. But I'd still be out there looking for even more serviceable parts in the market in this area.
    Last edited by GAC; 06-12-2008 at 10:40 PM.
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  11. #10
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    that isn't the 'blow it up plan' , that is the 'we can contend with some moves' plan.
    I see.. so you're thinking of basically trading everyone but Volquez, Bruce, and Ceuto..

    That could work.. but the risk is always that you get less in return and you have to wait 2-5 years for it to arrive..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    All Star Level Talent:
    Jay Bruce
    Edinson Volquez
    Johnny Cueto
    Adam Dunn
    Brandon Phillips
    Aaron Harang
    Coco Codero

    Above Replacement Level Talent
    Jeff Keppinger
    Jared Burton
    Joey Votto
    Affeldt
    Bill Bray

    Questionable Talent Level
    Edwin Encarnacion
    Ken Griffey, Jr. (at this point)
    Alex Gonzalez
    Gary Majewski
    David Ross
    Homer Bailey

    Possible Help
    Darryl Thompson RHSP
    Matt Maloney LHSP
    Shaun Cumberland CF/OF
    Chris Valaika SS
    Adam Rosales IF
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  13. #12
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    Keepers:
    Bruce
    EE - Kep/Janish - Phillips - Votto
    Harang & the young starters.
    Cordero - Burton -Bray - maybe Affeldt.
    Bench guys like - maybe Hairston, likely Freel, Gonzo if we can't deal him, some backup catcher.


    Needs:
    1. young catcher
    2. one young outfielder who plays CF or RF ( preferrably a CF )
    3. another outfielder ( LF ) or a 1B with Votto moving to LF. this could be a fill in vet for a year or so
    4. talent
    Like others have said, that's not blowing it up. Keppinger, Bruce, Phillips, Votto, I agree with. I also keep Harang, Volquez and Cueto. As far as pitchers go, I keep Cordero because no one will take that contract, but only Burton stays. Bench players? There is no purpose in keeping Freel and Hairston. One has to go. Ross, Valentin, Dunn (like EE, I've soured on him lately), Griffey (unless you can sign him for a bargain), EdE, Gonzo--all should go. I'd add Freel to the list. He gets hurt every year and then fades from sight. Bray still hasn't proven a lot to me (wild and can't pitch on consecutive days) and Affeldt is showing why he can only pitch to a couple of batters. Plus, he's going to demand big money next year and he just isn't worth it.

    I'd look for suitors for Homer and give away Belisle, Fogg (who won't be back anyway), Patterson, and Hopper.

    That said, none of this will happen, because like GAC said, there will be some moves, but nothing as drastic as this.

    As far as needs go, I agree on Nos. 1 and 2, but we desparately need another first baseman (right handed please) and a right-handed power bat.
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  14. #13
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    This team doesn't need to be blown up, for once.

    When you blow a team up, you look to create a young core. The young core is there: Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Phillips, Burton, Bray, and Janish. Throw in your steady vets Harang (who will bounce back, I have no doubt) and Cordero, re-sign Dunn and suddenly you're really in business.

    The team should be looking to add complementary talent (talent being they key word) by signing contributing (not necessarily superstar) free agents, looking for undervalued players (ala Jim Edmonds years ago) to acquire for prospects or players not figuring into longterm plans (guys like Drew Subbs and Eddie Encarnacion), and aggressively promoting real talent in the system.

    Blow it up is a bad idea, IMO. The trick is to shed dead weight, identify and sort prospects (trade the bad, keep the good), and improve the talent level on the team.
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  15. #14
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    This team doesn't need to be blown up, for once.
    I agree. A full-scale blow-up is for aging teams whose window of contention has closed. This club already looks like one that's gone through a blow-up and is on the way back up.

    The Reds have some areas that can use retooling, though. I thought Jocketty was pretty good in St. Louis at scrounging complementary talent and there's plenty of room for improvement here.
    Not all who wander are lost

  16. #15
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up? what is the 'blow it up' scenario?

    He's just an observation from last night's game.........

    Freeze the game after Votto's spot in the line up (he batted 7th).

    Here's what the next five guys looked like (OPS):
    .669
    .347
    .599
    .566
    .776 (it's below league average for a RFer but it looks HOF in the context of the Reds line up).

    Seriously, is that a "what the F?" moment or what???????
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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