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Thread: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in June!

  1. #61
    Member durl's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    I don't believe signing Dunn to a LTC would be the death knell for the Reds. Reds pitching has been one of the worst (and often THE worst) in the NL for 6-7 years. You can't give up more runs than any other team in the NL and expect to compete. So do the Reds let Dunn go and spend $7-8 million/year on a couple of good pitchers? Perhaps..I don't know. Still, how many of those 100 RBIs he's averaged each year for 4 years would the Reds be willing to let go?

    Pitching, pitching, pitching...

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  3. #62
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by durl View Post
    I don't believe signing Dunn to a LTC would be the death knell for the Reds. Reds pitching has been one of the worst (and often THE worst) in the NL for 6-7 years. You can't give up more runs than any other team in the NL and expect to compete. So do the Reds let Dunn go and spend $7-8 million/year on a couple of good pitchers? Perhaps..I don't know. Still, how many of those 100 RBIs he's averaged each year for 4 years would the Reds be willing to let go?

    Pitching, pitching, pitching...
    In this day and age, what "good" pitcher is available for 7-8 Million a year?

    Seriously? I like the idea of keeping Arroyo and Harang... Got a Future Ace in Volquez ( I know somebody is going to say, he is our ace now, but zip it- I know this), and Great Promise in Cueto... I know Bailey has had some bad outings but he has went against the Phillies and Red Sox... Hamels and Beckett... And hell it didn't matter if he gave up 3 runs over 6 IP in both those games... The Offense stopped. But anyhow, with Thompson pitching darn good, and this Maloney guy, who I personally think is Belisle II coming...

    Anyhow... Whether Thompson or Bailey turn into Studs, it doesn't matter... Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Thompson or Bailey...

    That has the makings of a great Rotation...

    But back to this Thread. I have wasted countless Hours talking about Dunn's value to the team... I can't do anything until this teams leading Homerun Hitter is hitting 18 a year, then I can finnaly say "I told ya so" to all of you who think this Losing is Dunns fault...

    Get rid of Dunn? How about getting rid of the Players that don't perform at all...

    Patterson, Valentin, Ross, Bako, Lincoln, Weathers, Fogg, Belisle...

    Freel isn't Worth 3 Million... Hmmm.... I posted together a Salary thread not too long ago, and all you Dunn Haters failed to address what you would sugest doing with all the before mentioned Money Savings...

    Including Stantons 3.5 Million, and Griffeys 8.3 Million, and then Dunns 13 Million...

    Somedays it sounds to me if the Reds 86 Adam Dunn and do nothing else, then you will move to another guy under performimg...

    Look out Votto... If you slump... Redszone Dunn hates will have you in their Bullseyez....

    Nice...
    Last edited by Hondo; 06-16-2008 at 01:46 PM.

  4. #63
    ORG Infidel Cicero's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    I never understood why fans always pick certain players to hate and constantly post tirades on an issue that quite frankly has been beaten to death.

    The fact is Dunn provides run production and a lot of it. Unfortunately for some he is an AVERAGE defensive ball player. Not terrible or even bad, just average. Add in a few talking heads on radio/television and you have a bunch of dimple heads posting numerous neverending tirades about him.

    The same has happened to Griffey, Casey, Phillips to an extent and Bailey. I am sure within a few weeks it will be Bruce or Votto.

    If you feel the need to rant about this player or that player that "needs to be moved" please add it to one of the hundreds of other threads on the subject and save us all from having to dig through 4-5 pages of this crap to look for the threads that actually do offer something to read about and discuss.
    Ron Popeil apologist.

  5. #64
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    +1, Cicero.

    People call for players to be moved that may be the highest ranking Red in an offensive category, blaming them for the Reds' losing record, meanwhile the Reds pitching staff gives up more runs than any other NL team.

    Most players have hot and cold streaks but the Reds pitching staff has had a cold streak lasting 7 years. People can blame Dunn's 8 errors a season and .230 BA on why the Reds haven't made the playoffs for years but that's ignoring the true problem. The Reds pitching staff has GOT to stop leading the league in runs allowed if this team is ever going to compete.

  6. #65
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    I got no problem with Dunn other than he is going to be very
    expensive for the Reds to keep.I don't want another Griffey
    situation(a broken down and old OF who can't be traded because of salary and 10/5 rights)yes Dunn is a lot younger than
    Griffey but he is not in the best of shape and if his legs go well...For those who say If Dunn goes so do the Reds I say hogwash.In 1971 the Reds traded Lee May to the Stros for
    Joe Morgan,César Gerónimo and Jack Billingham all that gave
    us was 2 World Championships.
    The Hunt for a Reds October.

  7. #66
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Dunn is far and away the best offensive player on the Reds. Letting him go will leave a huge black hole of offense that will be nearly impossible to replace.

    OBP never sleeps.

  8. #67
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Would some of the anti Dunn crowd be fine with Pat Burrell in left field for the same price as Dunn? I'd like to hear reasons why too.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Fullboat View Post
    I got no problem with Dunn other than he is going to be very
    expensive for the Reds to keep.I don't want another Griffey
    situation(a broken down and old OF who can't be traded because of salary and 10/5 rights)yes Dunn is a lot younger than
    Griffey but he is not in the best of shape and if his legs go well...For those who say If Dunn goes so do the Reds I say hogwash.In 1971 the Reds traded Lee May to the Stros for
    Joe Morgan,César Gerónimo and Jack Billingham all that gave
    us was 2 World Championships.
    Dunn's 28 years old even an Alfonso Soriano lengthed contract puts him at 36 years old. Plus he has only had one year that he played less than 150 games (not including 2001 part year). And the Reds also traded a "wash up" 3b to Baltimore howd that work out? Or how about Paul O'Neill to The Yanks for Who? The Reds record has been far from perfect when it comes to those type of deals.
    Quote Originally Posted by moewan View Post
    Barmaid to patron "Sir you are slurring, I am going to have to cut you off"

    Patron to barmaid "I'm not slurring, I'm speaking in cursive"


  10. #69
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyder View Post
    Dunn's 28 years old even an Alfonso Soriano lengthed contract puts him at 36 years old. Plus he has only had one year that he played less than 150 games (not including 2001 part year). And the Reds also traded a "wash up" 3b to Baltimore howd that work out? Or how about Paul O'Neill to The Yanks for Who? The Reds record has been far from perfect when it comes to those type of deals.
    Roberto Kelly, and that was a Whim-Dinger!

    Yeah, look... I cannot believe Dunn gets the Brunt of this when there are soooo Many players getting paid on this team that are not even worthy of a major league Roster Spot...

  11. #70
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyder View Post
    Dunn's 28 years old even an Alfonso Soriano lengthed contract puts him at 36 years old. Plus he has only had one year that he played less than 150 games (not including 2001 part year). And the Reds also traded a "wash up" 3b to Baltimore howd that work out? Or how about Paul O'Neill to The Yanks for Who? The Reds record has been far from perfect when it comes to those type of deals.
    There is always a danger of a bad trade(Robinson for Pappas was the
    worst of all)but you have to take a chance.Dunn is not helping the Reds
    right now(and believe me he is the least of there problems)and he is
    an established talent that we can get something for him and his 13mill can be used elsewhere like pitching.
    The Hunt for a Reds October.

  12. #71
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Roberto Kelly, and that was a Whim-Dinger!

    Yeah, look... I cannot believe Dunn gets the Brunt of this when there are soooo Many players getting paid on this team that are not even worthy of a major league Roster Spot...
    Those players getting paid on this team that are not even worthy of a major league Roster Spot will be jettisoned at the end of the season
    and quite easily at that.
    The Hunt for a Reds October.

  13. #72
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Here's my final take on Dunn from the Reds perspective. When I see Dunn's contributions offensively, I see him as the ideal "second banana". He's a guy that works counts, gets on base, and hits home runs. He is a very good RBI man, but not an elite, mostly because of his BA. He will knock in 90-100 per year, but I can't see him ever getting to that 120-130 range that the all-timers get to. The Reds need to place him in front of someone who can take full advantage of his .380 -.390 OBP. Unfortunately because of age and injuries, Junior has not been that guy. Phillips isn't really either. Maybe Bruce or Votto can be that guy. But they need someone who can capitolize on Dunn's strengths. If they can't fins that guy, then they might think about moving him. It's kind of like matching a fly ball pitcher with Dodger stadium or Petco Park in San Diego. You need the right fit. Right now, the Reds are wasting Dunn by hitting him 5th with no one who can really knock him in.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

  14. #73
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.
    OK, so I'm not a Stat Wanker. I don't even really like Stat Wankers (there is something off-putting about watching baseball, and trying to train myself to see a run as a by-product of the lone Truly Desirable Outcome, which is "Not Making An Out"; I don't know about you, but if "Not Making An Out" doesn't put a run on the board, it's hard for me to get up off my couch and appreciate the beauty and nuance of the formulas behind the game with a hearty whoop and cheer).

    But at the same time, I am not intellectually incurious, and can't quite go along with the Colbert-esque "gut" argument, either. There must be some middle ground.

    For instance: don't like the current formulae? Propose some new ones. To wit: here's an idea I had, and it relates specifically to Dunn...

    A while back (I don't remember if it was in here or on the ORG), somebody did a cool little statistical analysis that showed that just because your team averages 4.5 runs scored per game doesn't mean you'll win the same number of games per year. The main thrust of the analysis was that you'll win more games the smaller the standard deviation of your run scoring.

    So just because you score more runs than most teams over the course of 162 games doesn't mean you'll win more games. Your team is hurt if you "score in bunches" (i.e. you score 8, 1, 7, 0, 2, 8, 6, 11, 1, 1 over the course of 10 games for a total of 45 runs); your team is better off if you perform consistantly (i.e. you score 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, also for a total of 45 runs in 10 games).

    I can't help but wonder if the same exact thing would hold true if you applied that concept to each individual at-bat, instead of to a game as a whole.

    The Stat Wankers have their formulae for "Runs Created." From there, one should be able to calculate an individual batter's "Expected Runs Created Per Plate Appearance." Then, each Actual Outcome also has a "Runs Created" value. Calculate the difference between the expected and the actual, and keep track over the course of the year: it's a zero sum game, of course, but in doing this, you get each batter's standard deviation RC per at bat, and you can start to determine how that player's THEORETICAL production actually ties into the whole line-up's EFFECTIVE production.

    I think that'd be an interesting line of study. Does the RC standard deviation mean anything? How about if you consider it not just for a single player, but amplified over the course of 9 batters? If it does matter, how much does it matter? My "gut" says that it's better to have consecutive hitters who are more likely to put up numbers like "2-4, w/ single, double, SAC" than to have consecutive hitters with lines like "1-4, w/ HR, 1 BB, 2 K's, 1 GiDP."

    "Runs Created" might tell us the second player is more valuable. But when placed within a line-up, does the idea of consistency and standard deviation from expected values cause that value to degrade? Could there be a multiplicative effect on team production caused by lower standard deviations among batters, and/or a divisive one caused by higher deviations?

    I dunno, I'm far to lazy to work up a spreadsheet. But the little analysis I'm remembering about consistency of runs scored is suggestive enough. Somebody feel free to get on this, chop chop.


    Rick

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    When selling a house one tries to increase its value so the Reds if there thinking
    of trading Dunn bat him 5th or lower Brilliant!!!
    The Hunt for a Reds October.

  16. #75
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    I know this won't be happening necessarily next season, but resigning key coponents to our future long term success must be addressed. Affordable yet relatively lengthy LTC should be handed out to Bruce, Votto, Volquez, and Cueto in the upcoming two years (ala the Indians of the 90's). Tying up $15MM a season to Dunn for the next 5 years won't allow us to do so, which would be a horrible mistake.
    That hit was plenty fair. Atleast by a quarter of an inch.
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