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Thread: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in June!

  1. #31
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    I comprehend very well... Your point was that Starting Pitching Alone wasn't the answer...

    But it was a pointless point, as you mentioned Pitching and Defense was what we needed... So, you included Pitching in your argument... I figured you were going to come with morre than "Pitching & Defense"... I have to give you cred though, you didn't put 1/5 of the Payroll in there... Or did you? And you didn't address anything I was asking about with all the money saving this team will have with the Contracts dropping????

    Even though there are some raises coming for players...
    Pitching should always be this teams #1 priority. We have enough young players comming up to replace more expensive offensive players, so we should always focus on pitching. Thats what I am getting at, let more expensive offensive players walk, spend your money on pitching.

    And Girffey, if you think Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, Thompson is a championship caliber pitching staff then we will just have to disagree. Bailey will be a bust, he's showed me nothing, Arroyo will be gone after next year (And probably Harang), so your championship rotation is Volquez, Cueto, Baily, Maloney and Thompson?

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  3. #32
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    Come on.
    He swings and misses a lot, yes. But he doesnt often chase pitches out of the zone.

  4. #33
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    Come on.
    Career OBP of .382
    Career OPS of .900

    Keep in mind these numbers include when he debuted as a rookie at the age of 21.

    How is that not a disciplined hitter?

  5. #34
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by thorn View Post
    Pitching should always be this teams #1 priority. We have enough young players comming up to replace more expensive offensive players, so we should always focus on pitching. Thats what I am getting at, let more expensive offensive players walk, spend your money on pitching.

    And Girffey, if you think Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, Thompson is a championship caliber pitching staff then we will just have to disagree. Bailey will be a bust, he's showed me nothing, Arroyo will be gone after next year (And probably Harang), so your championship rotation is Volquez, Cueto, Baily, Maloney and Thompson?
    Harang is signed through 2010 with a club option for 2011. Why would we get rid of a guy who had 200+ k's and 16 wins with a 3.75 e.r.a. the previous 2 years when he is well below the market value. We can't ditch him cuz of a rough start. Volquez looks and will be a top of the rotation stud. Im not ready to count out Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, and Thompson as not be good quality pitchers down the road.

    The only way we get dominate pitching is home grown, or through trade. And through trade we have to trade young talent and won't have it to fill out the offense.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Career OBP of .382
    Career OPS of .900

    Keep in mind these numbers include when he debuted as a rookie at the age of 21.

    How is that not a disciplined hitter?
    The guy is inconsistent and streaky. Plus, you have to add his strikeout numbers, his RISP numbers, the fact he couldn't put together a sacrifice fly in over a year, the fact he couldn't routinely move runners over, etc., etc. Again, the game of baseball is more nuanced than simply boiling it down to OPS. And yes, the guy does walk, but many of the walks come simply because he's being pitched around with a hacker and easy out behind him. And, a walk does not always necessarily equal a single.
    Last edited by Nuxhall41; 06-13-2008 at 04:47 PM.

  7. #36
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    That is why he hits much better when a runner is on first as compared to a runner in scoring position with first base open. Pitchers can throw him only pitchers pitches and not be afraid of walking him with first open, especially with whichever hack is behind him. Dunn is 27 entering his prime, and this year he has been much much better as far as sac fly's and getting runners in without using the longball. And he has been CLUTCH for us.

  8. #37
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    The guy is inconsistent and streaky. (See numbers below)
    Plus, you have to add his strikeout numbers: He strikes out quite a bit, yes. What power hitter not named Pujols doesn't strike out a lot.

    his RISP numbers: See numbers below; Not nearly as bad as people think. He doesn't hit for high average, but a few numbers to point out. Man on 3rd with less than two outs, 50 RBI in 70 AB. Runner on 3rd, he's hitting .342.

    the fact he couldn't put together a sacrifice fly in over a year: Who cares if they aren't sac flies? As long as they are RBI's? over a 100 a year basically unlike any other Red.

    the fact he couldn't routinely move runners over: Don't have anything for that

    Again, the game of baseball is more nuanced tham simply boiling it down to OPS. And yes, the guy does walk, but many of the walks come simply because he's being pitched around with a hacker and easy out behind him. And, a walk does not always necessarily equal a single.:

    It would be if he batted in the two hole, where is career numbers are insane, which is also below

    Wow.

    Code:
    Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
     2001	CIN	66	244	54	64	19	43	38	74	0.262	0.371	0.578	0.949
     2002	CIN	158	535	84	133	26	71	128	170	0.249	0.400	0.454	0.854
     2003	CIN	116	381	70	82	27	57	74	126	0.215	0.354	0.465	0.819
     2004	CIN	161	568	105	151	46	102	108	195	0.266	0.388	0.569	0.956
     2005	CIN	160	543	107	134	40	101	114	168	0.247	0.387	0.540	0.927
     2006	CIN	160	561	99	131	40	92	112	194	0.234	0.365	0.490	0.855
     2007	CIN	152	522	101	138	40	106	101	165	0.264	0.386	0.554	0.940
     2008	CIN	64	201	36	46	16	41	56	66	0.229	0.397	0.507	0.904
    That is a label of consistency right there.


    By situation:

    Code:
    By Situation	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
    1B Only   	304	53	74	12	2	27	60	54	107	0.243	0.370	0.563	0.933
    Bases Loaded	32	56	9	2	0	4	43	10	14	0.281	0.396	0.719	1.115
    Close and Late	230	37	52	14	0	14	37	45	87	0.226	0.362	0.470	0.832
    First and 2nd	130	42	35	4	0	10	53	27	39	0.269	0.403	0.531	0.934
    First and Third	46	25	6	0	0	1	12	13	15	0.130	0.317	0.196	0.513
    Lead Off Inning	382	0	88	26	2	18	18	43	122	0.230	0.313	0.450	0.763
    Man 3rd<2 out	70	64	17	3	0	4	50	19	24	0.243	0.380	0.457	0.837
    Men On, 2 out	304	95	65	11	1	17	86	100	110	0.214	0.413	0.424	0.837
    No men On	916	62	233	59	2	62	62	141	289	0.254	0.360	0.526	0.886
    0 On1/2 out	511	41	139	32	0	41	41	92	161	0.272	0.388	0.575	0.963
    None On/Out	405	21	94	27	2	21	21	49	128	0.232	0.324	0.464	0.788
    On Second	127	35	27	5	0	11	35	54	41	0.213	0.448	0.512	0.960
    On Third	38	18	13	4	0	4	18	11	8	0.342	0.490	0.763	1.253
    Runners On	710	245	170	27	2	58	237	186	238	0.239	0.401	0.528	0.929
    Scoring Pos.	406	192	96	15	0	31	177	132	131	0.236	0.422	0.502	0.924
    Sco. P. 2 out	180	78	44	8	0	11	72	73	62	0.244	0.465	0.472	0.937
    2nd and 3rd	33	16	6	0	0	1	16	17	14	0.182	0.473	0.273	0.746

    Batting in the 2 hole:

    Code:
    By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
    Batting #2            	153	26	48	8	0	12	31	30	5	54	0.314	0.441	0.601	1.042

  9. #38
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Well put Homer.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    The guy is inconsistent and streaky. Plus, you have to add his strikeout numbers, his RISP numbers, the fact he couldn't put together a sacrifice fly in over a year, the fact he couldn't routinely move runners over, etc., etc. Again, the game of baseball is more nuanced tham simply boiling it down to OPS. And yes, the guy does walk, but many of the walks come simply because he's being pitched around with a hacker and easy out behind him. And, a walk does not always necessarily equal a single.
    Which player would you rather have:

    1: BA - .292 / HR - 21 / Runs - 90 / RBI - 75
    2: BA - .245 / HR - 39 / Runs - 105 / RBI 102

    These are not actual numbers but #2 is roughly Dunn's numbers over the past 4-5 years. Line #1 seems like what most Dunn critics say is acceptable. The question is, do you want the team to have a guy with a higher BA that produces fewer runs or one that produces runs with a lower BA?

    I remember one of the biggest rips against Sean Casey was that he didn't hit for power. Sure, he had a .310 BA but people wanted Runs. Dunn provides runs but not a high BA and he's ripped.
    Last edited by durl; 06-13-2008 at 04:23 PM.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.
    Gut feelings tell you the sun revolves around the earth. Mathematical analysis tells you you're wrong.

  12. #41
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    "Statistics don't lie. But statisticians do."

    It's important to remember that. The numbers are what they are. They are objective measures of something. The performance of Dunn is what it is. His home run totals, his RBI totals, OBP, AVG w/ runners in scoring position, AVG w/ runners in scoring position and two outs, AVG w/ a runner on third, two outs, in the ninth, on Tuesdays, in the month of July during a leap year in the state of California.

    All of those are values which can be objectively calculated.

    They don't lie.

    However, a person's interpretation of the values and use of the values to make a point is where the lying can (and often does) exist. Some people think one statistic better describes the value of a player than another. And that's a fine discussion to have. But it is a truth in life that people will find the value that proves their point, rather than using all the values to come to a logical conclusion. This is a human trait. And even the best, most method-oriented scientists do it, even though if anyone should know better, it should be them.


    So statistics can be dangerous, because their USE can be biased.


    However, the idea that a subjective rating (a gut feeling) is preferential to an objective rating (a calculated value) is problematic at best. At least with the objective rating you are beginning your argument with something derived independently of your own emotions and biases. With a gut feeling, there is little (if any) room for objectivity.

    A person's perceptions of Adam Dunn (or any player) can be useful. Watching him play can help you understand nuances of his swing, stance, eye hand coordination, etc. But just watching him can not give you much valid information about his expected performance.

    I've heard stories of scouts going to watch a prospective player, and remarking, "that kid just looks like a ballplayer." When what the scouts were actually looking at was broken down, it became apparent that the scouts were many times (unintentionially perhaps) looking at things like facial structure and hair length. That's right, facial structure and hair length (and given the atmosphere at the time, you can bet that what "looked like a ballplayer" was not someone with the skin color of Jackie Robinson or the hair length of Bronson Arroyo). Things which of course have no connection to on the field performance.

    So be careful about saying "Adam Dunn is not a good player because when I watch him play he doesn't perform like I think a good player should."

    It's a cliche, but it's true. "Looks can be decieving."

    Start with the objective data, and then go from there. You can still engage in bias when using objective data, but starting from the subjective is a invitation to come to the wrong conclusion more often then not. And given how much money we're talking about here, I sure as heck would not want to base my decision only on "what I see when I watch him play".

    But that's just me.
    Last edited by Ed Otten; 06-13-2008 at 04:30 PM.
    Whenever any of our players have good seasons, we should trade them. When they have lousy seasons, we should keep them ... until they have good seasons. Then, of course, we should trade them. -osuceltic, Jan, 2007

  13. #42
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    When going with my guy feeling I used to rip constantly on Dunn because he struck out, played an ugly left field, didn't hit for average so I assumed he was a bad hitter, and just thought he looked akward playing (which he still kinda does).

    This year I decided he was on the Reds so I was going to be behind him, and I have now came to appreciate and realize the good he brings to the team. You just have to look in deeper places than the surface.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by levydl View Post
    Gut feelings tell you the sun revolves around the earth. Mathematical analysis tells you you're wrong.
    That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by durl View Post
    How many runs does he give up each season with his 8 errors per season average over the past 6 years or so? And what is the scoring impact on the W/L record over 162 games with those 8 errors?
    Errors are not the only way to hurt your team on defense. What about all the balls he doesn't get to or his weak arm?
    80% of the earth is covered by water. The other 20% is covered by Eric Davis.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.
    A truly wonderful post! I could not agree more.
    80% of the earth is covered by water. The other 20% is covered by Eric Davis.


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