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Thread: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in June!

  1. #46
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Nobody is basing Adam Dunn solely off of OBP here, but because of the way he is pitched too, his OBP is a very valuable stat because he shows the patience to take the walk when it is what is given to him. Many hitters lack this. I am pretty sure we all know baseball is not simply numbers, but it is a mix of many things. Dusty is old school and ignores numbers, speed in the leadoff spot, weak contact in the 2 spot, Dunn down lower cuz of Avg., Phillips at 4 to split up righty lefty. These strategies also have faults.

    I've watched Adam Dunn play since he broke into the league, I know his defense is questionable, it is getting better, but still average at best. Nobody is saying because he gets on base he plays good defense and is great. It is one of his valuable skills, along with his power, pitcher's being afraid of him, there are also things like his character in the clubhouse that all partake in winning. How about him and Griffey laughing and joking with Jay Bruce, I bet that is a big reason Bruce is hitting .380 because those guys made him feel welcome.

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  3. #47
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Yeah, lets take Dunn out, Griffey out, and go with Bruce-Phillips-Edwin as out 3-4-5 hitters and see Bruce not stand a chance cause he will get nothing to hit...

    Is this the Lineup you want?

    Kepp
    CF - Janish, Dickerson?
    Bruce
    Phillips
    Edwin
    Votto
    LF - Hopper?
    C - Bako?
    P

    I mean, lose Adam Dunn and whats your answer?
    Last edited by Hondo; 06-13-2008 at 03:42 PM.

  4. #48
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Yeah, lets take Dunn out, Griffey out, and go with Bruce-Phillips-Edwin as out 3-4-5 hitters and see Bruce not stand a chance cause he will get nothing to hit...

    Is this the Lineup you want?

    Kepp
    CF - Janish, Dickerson?
    Bruce
    Phillips
    Edwin
    Votto
    LF - Hopper?
    C - Bako?
    P

    I mean, lose Adam Dunn and whats your answer?
    If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

    Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.

  5. #49
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    What if Adam Dunn were right handed? how would all these perceptions change?

  6. #50
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

    Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.
    I doubt whatever we get for those two will be ready to be in our lineup this year, especially if its just a two month rental of Dunn. We're looking at just getting some B level prospects.

  7. #51
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.
    And once again, remind me what teams in the Major Leagues are going to give us major league ready talent for Griffey and Dunn?

  8. #52
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

    Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.
    I am just telling you, Walt probably resigns Adam Dunn for 5 years/70 Million...

    Then I hope swings some prospects for a Bonafide Right Handed Power Hitter that plays RF, 3B, or SS...

    Ya know what else. Here is a Pipe Dream. I want this team to sign Francisco Rodriguez to a 4 year deal, and front Load it with the Salary being cheaper the last year...

    That would be one Badd A Bullpen that would shut people down...

  9. #53
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts.
    The Stephen Colbert method of baseball management.

    Well played sir. If it works for the Sault Sainte Marie Greyhounds, it will certainly work for us.

    Coming soon to GAB Steagle Colbeagle the Eagle, all american mascot.

  10. #54
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.
    Wait, do you really think Dunn supporters simply don't watch the games? And that's the reason they disagree with you?

    We're all too busy playing with our slide rules to be bothered with being a fan?
    Last edited by OUReds; 06-13-2008 at 04:33 PM.

  11. #55
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.
    You don't think I actually watch him play? I've already been to about 15 games (went last night, going tomorrow), and my girlfriend hates me because all we ever watch are the Reds.

    There are situational numbers. Over the course of an entire season, in almost every case, they'll be very close to one's overall numbers. That's what the numbers say.

    But the real point is, there is simply no way you can just watch Dunn and comprehend what he has done over 162 games and 650 times at bat. It's simply not possible. There's just too much information over too long a period of time for the human mind to get an accurate picture. You bring your biases with you, whatever they are. Statistics sweep them away (at least offensively they do - defensive more difficult). You can't say, "Oh, Dunn hits only meaningless HRs - either they're with no one on or they're when we're up a bunch or down a bunch, when the statistics prove otherwise. They are unbiased.

    Then, you can analyze statistics and determine what are the most important - that is, what led to winning games. As it turns out, hits aren't as important as not making outs. People didn't figure that out when they were just watching the game - it's not conducive to observation. Not making an out is the thing most likely to create a run. That's what studying statistics has shown - the more times players come up to bat without making an out, the more runs a team scores. The more runs a team scores, the more likely they are to win (with good pitching, they're very likely to win). That's not my opinion from watching a bunch of games, that's a statistical fact. No bias. No preconceptions brought in. Just data and analysis.

    Thus, OBP is a much more telling stat than people typically realize. BA, on the other hand, is highly overrated, since it only tells part of the picture.

    And on and on. Statistics won't be 100% accurate in determining winning - for instance, the Diamondbacks allowed more runs than they scored last year, so statistically speaking they should not have won a lot of games, yet they did - but they are generally accurate, and much more accurate than anything else. They are by far the best device we have.

  12. #56
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by OUReds View Post
    Wait, do you really think Dunn supporters simply don't watch the games? And that's the reason they disagree with you?
    No, I think you're putting too much faith in limited and flawed metrics. A cursory glance can tell you how problematic applying OBP and OPS to Dunn is as an end-all, which is precisely why at times you have to actually watch the games, pay attention, especially situationally speaking, and use your gut extincts. Statistics can and do lie when they are imperfect metrics. With OBP and OPS, you're taking 2nd grade addition formulas and attempting to explain away a complex game. It's not that simple.

  13. #57
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    No, I think you're putting too much faith in limited and flawed metrics. A cursory glance can tell you how problematic applying OBP and OPS to Dunn is as an end-all, which is precisely why at times you have to actually watch the games, pay attention, especially situationally speaking, and use your gut extincts. Statistics can and do lie when they are imperfect metrics. With OBP and OPS, you're taking 2nd grade addition formulas and attempting to explain away a complex game. It's not that simple.
    I've seen Dunn hit 7 career walk off homers (I think the number is 7) and numerous game tying home runs and those can't be included in the OBP and OPS categories.

    It's a double edged sword you are swinging, and that sword is missing its target more often than Adam Dunn does.

  14. #58
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    No, I think you're putting too much faith in limited and flawed metrics. A cursory glance can tell you how problematic applying OBP and OPS to Dunn is as an end-all, which is precisely why at times you have to actually watch the games, pay attention, especially situationally speaking, and use your gut extincts. Statistics can and do lie when they are imperfect metrics. With OBP and OPS, you're taking 2nd grade addition formulas and attempting to explain away a complex game. It's not that simple.
    2nd grade addition formulas? Explain away a complex game? Really?

    OPS is used to judge overall offensive production because it is a relatively simple and easy to grasp stat that correlates extremely well to actual runs scored, much better then traditional metrics such as BA and the like.

    Are we trying to use stats and other OBJECTIVE analysis to rationalize Dunn's poor performance? Or are you trying to "explain away" the objective analysis because it doesn't fit with what you see, your SUBJECTIVE analysis? With respect, if you think it's the former, you are deluding yourself.

    I've watched Dunn since he came up, I watch nearly every game. My "gut" tells me he is the Red's best offensive player. Yours tells you he isn't. These are both subjective points of view. The difference is that the OBJECTIVE data says that I am right. Goodness knows everyone is welcome to their opinion, but recognize it as such. Without anything to back it up, your arguement is essentially Dunn is not very good because I say so.

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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

    Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.
    If we get an impact bat through trade then we can get rid of Dunn. I read that the Tigers might be looking to implode the team and trade off Magglio Ordonez. I would jump all over that possibility.

    Still, I would consider resigning Dunn to a ltc despite his batting average this month and to date this season. I would offer a ltc to Ryan Howard if the chance was available and his batting average is worse than Dunn's.

  16. #60
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    Re: The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in Jun

    I think we have to look at what other contenders in similar financial situations do. Minnesota and Oakland, who have been consistently strong teams, have been willing to let some of their better players go because they knew that they could replace some of that production with young guys and they could reallocate the money saved on the single player. Look at the names they have released or traded: Tejada, Giambi, Hunter, Zito, Mulder, Hudson, Santana, and Haren. They were able to replace those guys and are still fighting for a playoff spot. Reds fans freaked out when we shipped out Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns. It's the game we need to play, and we are simply unwilling to play it. The idea that "Dunn and Griffey fill the seats" is the dumbest, weakest, and most Bengal-like logic I've ever heard. Who cares? I want to win, and I almost guarantee that if the Reds sign Dunn to $15 mil a year, that they will not win.

    I'm not saying all of this as an indictment of Dunn. In a way, this has nothing to do with Dunn himself. This is philosophy and business. In fact, I think the Reds should be taking offers on anyone not named Cueto, Volquez, Votto, and Bruce. They are the foundation. Sell high on Dunn, sell high on Harang, sell high on Phillips. Reds fan are too sentimental and rate our own players too highly.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero


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