Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 42

Thread: Alarming Dunn Stats!

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    1,064

    Alarming Dunn Stats!

    I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

    Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

    In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

    Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

    If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

    The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

    Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

    You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

    Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

    In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

    Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

    If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

    The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

    Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

    You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....

    I seriously can't believe Reds' fans attempts to analyze Dunn's statistics. You can't take out someone's hot streak, it's that simple. Hey take out Bruce's first week and he's just an average player. You can't pick and choose which statistics to use. He currently has an OPS over .900. Anybody else on this team have that? No. He's streaky, I get it, but his production numbers do not lie. If Dusty knew how to use him in a lineup, he would be an incredible asset to this team, but that is another story. Batting him 2 or 3 would give him better pitches to hit, and help utilize his high walk rate.

    Care to calculate his OBP even during his "slumping?" Batting average is not a telling stat. Please don't use selective statistics when making a case. It leads to extremely inaccurate and misleading information.

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Hamersville
    Posts
    588

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Yeah what he said...........
    Bowled 9 300 games, semi-retired!

    Nothing like bowling a 300 game

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    88

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

    Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

    In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

    Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

    If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

    The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

    Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

    You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....
    Thank you. This is precisely what I was saying in another thread. This is not a winning formula.

  6. #5
    Member durl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Nashvull
    Posts
    1,750

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Every other major leaguer falls under the 162 game rule to accumulate statistics. Dunn happens to score more Runs and drive in more Runs than most other players within those 162 games. All players have up periods and down periods.

    I might be the odd man here, but I view production as Runs Scored and RBIs. In the end, Runs Scored is the only thing that affects the W/L record. Dunn can bat .220 for a season and I'll be genuinely disappointed with that, but if he drives in 90-100 runs and scores 100 times (as his recent history proves), I don't believe that I could say that he's an unproductive player.

    Over the past several years the Reds have ranked among the most potent offenses in the majors, but their pitching has ranked at or near the bottom in most pitching categories. The Reds lack of wins over the past several years can be laid directly at the hands of the pitching staff, not Dunn's Batting Average.
    Last edited by durl; 06-13-2008 at 04:17 PM.

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    190

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

    Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

    In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

    Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

    If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

    The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

    Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

    You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....
    Is it that the 40/100/100 (100 walks, .380 OBP, .900 OPS) are not what they may seem, or that the batting average numbers aren't meaningful?

    You don't win pennants by accumulating bases, no. On offense, you win them by not making outs - that is, getting on base. Not making an out is the thing that most contributes to scoring runs. That's an objective fact. Dunn accomplishes that 2 times every 5 times he comes to the plate, which is among the best in baseball.

    Hitting .300 is not the most important end all be all. That's been proven so.
    Last edited by levydl; 06-13-2008 at 04:11 PM. Reason: to tone it down

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    190

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuxhall41 View Post
    Thank you. This is precisely what I was saying in another thread. This is not a winning formula.
    Please don't use the word forumla. It has statistical overtones, and what he just wrote and what you just thanked him for would get an F in Baseball Statistics 101: These Ones Actually Matter.
    Last edited by levydl; 06-13-2008 at 03:58 PM.

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    1,064

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by levydl View Post
    Is it that the 40/100/100 (100 walks, .380 OBP, .900 OPS) are not what they may seem, or that the batting average numbers you trot out as meaningful aren't? Hmmm.

    You don't win pennants by accumulating bases, no. You win them, first, with pitching. Dunn is, admittedly, not very good at that, so I'll give you that one. On offense, you win them by not making outs - that is, getting on base. Not making an out is the thing that most contributes to scoring runs. That's an objective fact. Dunn accomplishes that 2 times every 5 times he comes to the plate, which is among the best in baseball.

    But believe what you want. Believe that hitting .300 is the most important end all be all, despite what all the numbers and studies say. Ignorance is bliss, I guess.
    It would be nice if you would not personally attack me when I said that this is not my work, I just thought it was an interesting perspective and something fellow RZ'ers would like to read

  10. #9
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by durl View Post
    Every other major leaguer falls under the 162 game rule to accumulate statistics. Dunn happens to score more Runs and drive in more Runs than most other players within those 162 games. All players have up periods and down periods.

    I might be the odd man here, but I view production as Runs Scored and RBIs. In the end, Runs Scored the only thing that affects the W/L record. Dunn can bat .220 for a season and I'll be genuinely disappointed with that, but if he drives in 90-100 runs and scores 100 times (as his recent history proves), I don't believe that I could say that he's an unproductive player.

    Over the past several years the Reds have ranked among the most potent offenses in the majors, but their pitching has ranked at or near the bottom in most pitching categories. The Reds lack of wins over the past several years can be laid directly at the hands of the pitching staff, not Dunn's Batting Average.

    Agree 100%. I also love your sig. I'm not many other people on this board get that one, but that is a funny one.

    And how is a career .382 OBP and a .900 OPS with 100 Runs and 100 RBI'S not a winning formula? Do you expect him to post a 2.00 ERA as well? Do you honestly think if we had a team full of Dunn's in our lineup that we wouldn't be the best team in the league?

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    190

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    It would be nice if you would not personally attack me when I said that this is not my work, I just thought it was an interesting perspective and something fellow RZ'ers would like to read
    I'm sorry, I didn't mean to personally attack you. I was attacking your opinion. No offense. I'll take out the personal stuff.

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    88

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    On offense, you win them by not making outs - that is, getting on base. Not making an out is the thing that most contributes to scoring runs. That's an objective fact. Dunn accomplishes that 2 times every 5 times he comes to the plate, which is among the best in baseball.
    Baseball is a bit more complex and nuanced than that.

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Weatherford, Texas
    Posts
    2,125

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    What are you talking about, that is still 2 HR and 2 RBI off the 40-100, so what are you doing or thinking? If it was like 31-79.... Go on with your bad self...

    But that point was ridiculous... He will probably get to 40-100-100-100 anyway...

  14. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Posts
    2,080

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Nuxhall 41, what is your winning formula, I would like to hear your insights on how to become a winning team and win a baseball game/

  15. #14
    Stat geek...and proud
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Paris, OH
    Posts
    2,612

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    This thread is dumb. Every player has hot and cold streaks. You could do the same thing you just did for every player in baseball. It's the nature of the game.

  16. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    88

    Re: Alarming Dunn Stats!

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Nuxhall 41, what is your winning formula, I would like to hear your insights on how to become a winning team and win a baseball game/
    You need consistency. You need consistent players. We have a roster full of inconsistent players. We have hackers who get hot for a week or two, but then disappear for a month. We have pitchers who are up-and-down and you never know what you're going to get. We have players who make spectacular plays but then boot routine ones. As counterintuitive as it may sound, 1 run does not necessarily equal 1 run in baseball. You can score 12 runs over three games winning 9-1 while losing 3-2 & 3-1, or you can score 12 runs and win all three 4-1, 4-2 & 4-3.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25