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Thread: Dunn, should he stay or go?

  1. #31
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    I would also go as far as to say that I would want him to move to first and play Voto in left I mean lets face it Dunn isn't getting any younger and he is a BIG guy his knees are taking a pounding in the outfield. I would want to protect my investment by removing him from LF.
    Last edited by Lockdwn11; 06-26-2008 at 06:07 PM.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    I agree, I would like him to go to first and move Votto to left. They should re-sign Dunn and try to sign Carl Crawford to play center.

  4. #33
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    From the ORG:

    Summary of this thread and 99% of the other 5000 Dunn threads:

    1. Someone mentions Adam Dunn in any respect.

    2. Someone posts that Dunn sucks because he has a low batting average and strikes out often.

    3. Other people post that the important metrics prove Dunn is a very valuable run producer despite his flaws.

    4. Someone posts that even though Dunn is the best Reds hitter of the past decade he is overpaid.

    5. Someone posts that his market value is $15-17 million per year as compared to similar players.

    6. Someone posts that he may be worth that much money but the Reds can't afford it because Cincinnati is just a poor, run-down little village with no money.

    7. Someone posts that the Reds have plenty of money to spend and they make a big profit every year.

    8. Someone says "Yeah, but he can't play defense" and concocts a stat showing Dunn is the worst left fielder in major league history.


    It has gotten so predictable that we can even tell exactly which posters will perform each step of the process.



    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    From IslandRed in the same thread on ORG very interesting read:






    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (Yes, another Adam Dunn thread. And this post is long. Sorry.)

    First, the disclaimer: All of the following is predicated on the assumption Dunn will shoot for a major free-agent contract (think 4/$60 million or bigger). If he's willing to come back on more agreeable terms, then the calculus changes. On to it:

    I recently read Moneyball again, and after pondering for awhile, I have gone from thinking the Reds probably should give Dunn a long-term contract to thinking they probably shouldn't.

    It is not because of the kind of junk Daugherty wrote today, or a lack of appreciation for Dunn's skill set. I've written plenty in support of him over the years. I've eaten a full helping of the new-school metrics that show Dunn to be an extremely productive player over his Reds career. It's precisely because I've defended Dunn that this is a difficult conclusion to draw. Dunn has been a cause célèbre among the stat-minded here for a long time. Just like Bill James once wrote about Phil Rizzutto that an appreciation of all the little things Rizzutto did was an unspoken way of saying, hey, I'm an enlightened fan that can see beyond the box score, championing Dunn has been a way for people to show that we're hip with the new school, that we Get It.

    But the so-called Moneyball thinking isn't just about evaluating players. It also teaches that managing a major-league roster is about managing assets, and a player's true value to the team cannot be separated from his salary, contract status and future performance projection. And that's where my own analysis points toward "don't."

    The Reds are not the Marlins. For the Marlins, "pay the man" is always seemingly the wrong answer. Nor are we the Yankees, where it's always the right answer. We are in the majority, the in-betweens, and we have to pick our spots. For me, the general rule is simple to say if not to figure: we should be willing to pay market rate to keep guys who will earn their money and cannot be easily replaced; we should avoid handing out those contracts if the tilt is toward probably not earning the money, particularly if the numbers are large enough to have a boat-anchor effect on future payrolls.

    Dunn has been so remarkably consistent that it's easy to say he's going to keep doing it several more years. So what is that production worth today? Trotting out one metric, Baseball Prospectus' MORP (Marginal Value over Replacement Player), Dunn is actually being slightly overpaid today -- his projected stat line would be worth nearly $11 million. (That sounds on the low side, but that projection factors in defense and position; any metric involving replacement level is going to apply a discount to a player simply for being a left fielder.) He's making $13 million now. But even if the $11 million is an accurate number, I don't mind paying a slight premium for a guy who's as reliable as it gets in baseball.

    The problem for me comes in the future projection. Dunn is 28, heading toward the far side of the typical player's career peak. It has been theorized that youngish players who have so-called old player skills and an old player body hit earlier and steeper declines than their more athletic peers. In fact, BP's PECOTA seems to be factoring in some of that. Dunn's MORP predictions for the next four years -- and keep in mind that he is slightly underperforming his 50th-percentile for this year so far, and if he finishes that way these numbers will go down a little:

    2009: $8,825,000 (4.1 WARP)
    2010: $7,725,000 (3.5 WARP)
    2011: $6,975,000 (3.0 WARP)
    2012: $6,325,000 (2.8 WARP)

    (If you're wondering why the salary isn't going down proportionally to the WARP, it's because MORP factors in the inflationary nature of baseball salaries. A win in 2012 will cost more than it does today.)

    That projection, which fits with my eyeball test, doesn't make him a useless player by any stretch. But it argues against giving him a Carlos Lee-type deal or anything remotely close to it. Again, we can pay for production, but it's difficult to justify over-paying for it, particularly for a guy at the crowded end of the defensive spectrum. But there's certainly a lot of room to debate Dunn's future projection, and to make a case that his dropoff won't come for a few years yet. If you disagree with my overall conclusion, that's probably why.

    OK, so I've come around to the notion of not re-signing him to a long, expensive deal. Even with a pessimistic projection, though, he has a good chance to keep putting up 40-100 with strong on-base skills for the next year or two. How do we replace that?

    Back to another concept from Moneyball: replace the aggregate.

    We can't expect to simply snap in another left fielder who gives us the same power and OBP as Dunn. But the aggregate of the resulting moves could well meet or even exceed Dunn's overall value to the team. Dunn's PECOTA projection calls for him to be a 4.1 WARP (win over replacement player) guy next year. Instead of spending $15 million for that, suppose Jocketty finds an inexpensive or in-house solution to man left field, someone worth a win or two, and then spends the bulk of the money to fix one of our black-hole positions like center field or catcher? It can work. In fact, you can argue it should work if Jocketty intelligently chooses his targets.

    And finally, the acid test for guys like me: What would Beane do? There's no way to know for sure. We know Beane likes Dunn's type of player; we also know he can make the tough call. Given the choice between "Beane would be attempting to sign Dunn to a major extension" and "Beane would have traded him 18 months ago," I'm leaning strongly towards the latter.

    OK guys, have at it.
    Last edited by Lockdwn11; 06-26-2008 at 07:29 PM.

  5. #34
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    heck, why stop there, why not cut and paste the whole thread?!?!?

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

  6. #35
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    heck, why stop there, why not cut and paste the whole thread?!?!?

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    Why would you say that? That was a very interesting and informative post that adds a great deal to this topic/thread.
    Last edited by Lockdwn11; 06-26-2008 at 07:41 PM.

  7. #36
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    I would give my left arm for Carl Crawford........ He would dominate in the NL, and finally give us a prototypical lead-off hitter..... see ya Dunn. You're barely worth the comp picks we would receive for you.

  8. #37
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    One solution is to move him to 1B, then sign him long term with the intention of trading him as soon as Yonder Alanso is ready. That could end up being as early as 2010. It would be like signing Dunn to a 2-year deal.

  9. #38
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    i hate dunn. so should you.

    /thread

  10. #39
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    i have said how much i hate him.. but it is ALWAYS very clear that it is because of how much he makes.. at 6-8 mil a year he is a legit player.. and a welcome addition to a team..

  11. #40
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    i agree... but anything over 10? You're paying diamond prices for cubic.......... Fortunately for Dunn, there are enough Cinci fans easily fooled to make a public push for garbage.

  12. #41
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    BLEEDS breaks out Stats for the STAT guys that say Dunn needs to go, and the STAT guys ignore the Stats, and say his D sucks. OR he K's too much...

    Adam Dunn is the only Reds organization product drafted and Groomed that has become an Impact player in the last 20 years and some people want him gone? That was in a paper article somewhere, like Paul Doherty or whaterver his name is...
    Good point, shows that many in the front office need to go too then

  13. #42
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    One solution is to move him to 1B, then sign him long term with the intention of trading him as soon as Yonder Alanso is ready. That could end up being as early as 2010. It would be like signing Dunn to a 2-year deal.
    Might be even harder to move him if he is long term, but move him only 2 years later-his game is likely to go own by that poiint, age is def up, teams might not be interested in that then. His value is as high now as it is going to get, take that as good or bad. I know I joke a lot about him, and prob lean more towards getting rid of him, but only cause I fear the contract he will likely want, if he woudl resign reasonably, I am all for it.

  14. #43
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    The most convincing argument why Dunn should go is his park-adjusted stats.

    Adam Dunn:
    Code:
    STAT    PARK ADJUSTED
    OBP     .343
    SLG     .435
    OPS     .778
    $15-$18 million/season for a .778 OPS hitter? I don't think so.



    Somebody brought up Juan Pierre...
    Code:
    STAT    PARK ADJUSTED
    OBP     .347
    SLG     .443
    OPS     .790


    I don't know about everybody else, but I see a higher OBP and SLG from Pierre....not to mention all the speed and range in CF.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 06-28-2008 at 11:43 AM.

  15. #44
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    Re: Dunn, should he stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    The most convincing argument why Dunn should go is his park-adjusted stats.
    Source?

    Dunn's career OPS+ is 130 (with 100 being average), and that is a park adjusted stat. Pierre's OPS+ is 84.

    Dunn's career road OPS is .862

    Dunn doesn't strike me as a player that greatly benefits from GAB. His power comes from homers that would be out of any ballpark. His OBP is walk driven, and patience doesn't care what park you are in.

    As far as the topic, it's pretty clear Jocketty doesn't intend to resign him. I just hope he has a plan to replace our best offensive player.


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