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Thread: Anybody else upset???????

  1. #31
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Plus the left-right imbalance. Lower than average OBP as a team. Low BA as a team meaning fewer strung together hits to go with the walks, one thing this team does well.
    Jake where has the offense gone ?

    Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Good post, Stormy, and I'll follow that up with something that will make us both sick.

    This offense is on pace to score 686 runs ... for the entire season. They're on pace to lose 97 runs of offense this season, a drop of a whopping 12.4 percent from last season.To use the vernacular of my generation: this offense simply blows.
    Stats people on this board tried to tell people what would happen with low OBP leadoff players, and batting the higher OBP players down in the order would do to the scoring chances for the team. They tried to tell people dating back to as early as April and through out May what the lineup construction of Bakers was doing and going to do, it did and it has done what they were pointing out. Check out Steel, Cyclone, REDMANSRICK, and other's postings, even Stormy was sounding the alarm way back in April and again in May. Even Eradi (spelling ?) had a piece on that.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 06-27-2008 at 10:35 AM.

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  3. #32
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    I think its simply a home run offense without enough home run hitters. This offense might work if there were 4 guys with 35-40 home run power and the Reds could count on a three run jack pretty regularly. Then you might pick up some of the walks the Reds keep getting. Take out a couple of the automatic outs in the lineup and replace them with solid hitters and the offense might work. And certainly put your automatic outs at the end of the lineup instead of sprinkled throughout and you'd see a better chance of stringing some hits together.

  4. #33
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    I'm sick. It is past the point of being upset. It's going to be a long summer as far as baseball is concerned.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  5. #34
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I think its simply a home run offense without enough home run hitters. This offense might work if there were 4 guys with 35-40 home run power and the Reds could count on a three run jack pretty regularly. Then you might pick up some of the walks the Reds keep getting. Take out a couple of the automatic outs in the lineup and replace them with solid hitters and the offense might work. And certainly put your automatic outs at the end of the lineup instead of sprinkled throughout and you'd see a better chance of stringing some hits together.
    Very true--all you said. The Reds have acquired low OBP guys for the last few years and traded away power and, in my opinion, talent in our zeal for pitching (and no one is saying we didn't need any pitching). Bad lineup construction magnifies this as well as black holes in center field and at shortstop. In the meantime, the starting pitching, which has been good, is failing and the bullpen, though better, is still not what it should be. This team is a mess and will continue to be until a major overhaul is undertaken.
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  6. #35
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Centerfield batted leadoff even with a low on base percentage, shortstop batted second many times when a poor hitting player was playing the position.

    Respect for the past batted third regardless of his struggles against left handed pitchers as a left handed batter.

    Phillips the free swinging right handed batter hitting in cleanup time and time again even with Phillips struggling badly against right handed pitching.

    Adam Dunn and Joey Votto with their higher on base percentages stuck down in the five, six and seven slots.

    Dunnís league leading walk total indicating that pitchers pitch around him, was wasted time after time batting down in the order instead of second or third in the order.

    A rookie phenom was tossed into batting second and then the lead off spot and has not hit well since.

    All that above takes itís toll on the players and the runs scored by the offense in a cumulative manner. Two months went by with lost or wasted opportunity, then the tough times came and hay had not been made when the sun did shine in April and May, the rains came in June with injuries and the previous months had been lost.

    Count the one run and two runs scored games that this offense has had and lost. This team should be .500 or above. The losing and dysfunction takes its toll on the players energy and drive too, losing becomes the environment once again for the Reds.

  7. #36
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Anybody else upset???????
    About the state of the baseball team?

    Nah... I have a laundry list of things more pressing.

    Plus this is the classic late decade crapfest by the Reds before a rise

    1968 - so close no pitching
    1977 - fall from grace
    1989 - Rose and injuries
    1998 - 77 Wins and a deal of the Reds AS rep

    You gotta dream

  8. #37
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Hopper's the only one I'm upset about it. He has no place on this roster. He brings nothing.

  9. #38
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Stats people on this board tried to tell people what would happen with low OBP leadoff players, and batting the higher OBP players down in the order would do to the scoring chances for the team.
    Lineup construction has very influence on a team's won-loss record over the course of a season.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #39
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    We need a catcher. Heck, any catcher will do. Someone who can catch the ball and bat .250 against both leftys and righties with power.
    "Any" catcher can't hit .250 with power against both LH and RH pitchers and catch the ball.

    There's probably about 5 catchers in the league who fit your descrption.

  11. #40
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Code:
    J. Hairston Jr.	 SS	.333 .379 .473 .851 
    J. Keppinger	 3B	.311 .364 .422 .786
    Adam Dunn	 LF	.225 .386 .496 .882
    Joey Votto 	 1B	.284 .351 .486 .837
    K. Griffey Jr.	 RF	.241 .350 .398 .748
    Jay Bruce 	 CF	.288 .362 .450 .813
    B. Phillips	 2B	.271 .320 .480 .801
    Catcher
    Pitcher
    The Reds have players with decent on base percentage. The Reds have very few auto outs in the lineup, the manager just needs to align them correctly and give up myths about speed, bunting, spreading out the left handed bats when he has left handed bats that can hit left handed pitching. The Reds have five batters with 30 homerun power or greater.

    It is very much in the power of the manager to do, make out the correct lineup construction and to continue to play the percentages that can lead to greater scoring opportunities. The offense has nothing to do with pitching or defense. Clear back to April when people were complaining about the high LOB and forward it was within the managers power to make the appropriate changes. Still is.

    Lineup construction for some teams has little effect on the scoring, when it comes to the Reds, I say, "right", so leadoff the pitcher, bat Patterson second, and the catcher 3rd and see how that works out by giving them the most PA and reducing the PA for the higher OBP and SLG players and see how that works out, we have already with Patterson leading off, Griffey batting third, and whoever was the pick of the day batting second, with the exception of the temporal spike by Bruce when he first came up.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 06-27-2008 at 11:15 AM.

  12. #41
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post

    About the state of the baseball team?

    You gotta dream
    Yep. I'm not upset, but I am disappointed.

    I'm OK with giving up hope in mid-August like the previous 7 years, but doing so in June is .... disappointing. 1999 is starting to be a while ago. 1995 is even longer.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  13. #42
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Lineup construction has very influence on a team's won-loss record over the course of a season.
    Does it have any effect on chances, opportunity to have runners on base, does it have any effect on scoring opporutnity, or on runs scored? Why does OBP matter ? Should it be ignored? Does it matter which players get the most PA ?

  14. #43
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    It's not lineup construction as much as it is most of the "big boppers" having poor seasons. Dunn, Junior, EdE, and Phillips have all regressed greatly.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  15. #44
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    If I can be the voice of psuedo-reason... every team goes through ups and downs. Rarely does it make sense to project forward a level of performance at the apex of a peak or the deepest part of a valley. This team will regress to its mean. Now, we fairly can recognize that the mean isn't very good. But this isn't, and won't be, a 95 loss team.

    Every single player on this team who was here last year, sans the bullpen, is performing worse. As much as I'd like to blame Dusty, blame the GM, blame somebody, it's just a thing and it's not likely to end up that way. That's not to absolve management of their contribution, but no manager can make all of his players perform worse. Sure, Patterson shouldn't be leading off, but it's not Dusty's fault CPat can't hit .200. It's not his fault that EE can only hit the bottom of the baseball. Harang will find his mechanics. Dunn will go on a streak of actually making contact. Phillips will hit righties better (and lefties worse). Encarnacion will start hitting line drives instead of popups again. Bruce will adjust. You get the idea.

    We still have some major problems. Jeff Keppinger is not a SS, but nobody else hits enough to justify playing time. BP is a complimentary offensive player, not a core guy (would you bat Jacque Jones cleanup?). We only have 2 major league caliber OF and one of them is likely gone after the season, if not sooner. But we are a better team than this.

    Oddly enough, I'm pretty happy with where the pitching is at. I'm concerned about Harang, but not overly worried. Arroyo has freakishly high LD% and HR/FB which pretty much have to come down at some point. The bullpen is developing in to a strength, Burton in particular, and we've got more promising arms coming soon.

    I maintain that we probably should not give Dunn the 5 or 6 year deal he like wants and will get somewhere. However, this team needs to score at least 750 runs to have a prayer at the playoffs and we're going to need to get that improvement somewhere. What is frustrating to me is that I think we have some of those pieces already. I still think EE will figure it out and have a 2001 Aramis Ramirez season soon. Bruce and Votto are going to hit.

    Bottom line is that this team's ability to compete is fully dependant on the development of the guys we already have. It's really that simple. Sure, we need to add an above replacement C and CF. We could use an upgrade at SS. But unless the guys we already have reach their potential, no amount of FA signings, lineup reordering, or other tweaking can possibly make the difference. For the rest of this season, I don't care about about lineups, stupid bunts, and the like (though I reserve the right to complain). I just want to see our young guys continue to develop. Because if that doesn't happen, nothing else really matters.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-27-2008 at 11:30 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #45
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Anybody else upset???????

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    However, this team needs to score at least 750 runs to have a prayer at the playoffs and we're going to need to get that improvement somewhere. What is frustrating to me is that I think we have some of those pieces already. I still think EE will figure it out and have a 2001 Aramis Ramirez season soon. Bruce and Votto are going to hit.
    The main problem - and this is where fans the team itself gets in trouble - is that we need to separate the dreams from reality. It seems as though there's a large chunk of fans who believe this talent infusion will morph the Reds into an offensive juggernaut. What I mean by this is people start believing, no hoping, that certain young players turn into a specific dream. And when it doesn't happen (odds are much greater it won't than it will), people are left hanging.

    This type of thinking has already driven Austin Kearns out of town; remember, he was supposed to be an outstanding hitter. When it was obvious he was merely league average, it was a problem both for the team and the fans. Edwin Encarnacion has been a league average player thus far in his short career. He also only has a ~.800 career minor league OPS. It's very possible that the offensive player we see in Encarnacion today is pretty much who he is. Joey Votto has an .854 OPS in his short big league career; his career minor league OPS is .861. It's also very possible that the Votto we're seeing now is the Votto we're going to get.

    And I love Jay Bruce. But this team can't rely on him to be a reincarnation of Mel Ott. The team, and fans, have to be prepared for the possibility that Bruce may only be an .875 to .900 OPS bat. If everybody thinks he's the next 1.000 OPS bat, similar to Adam Dunn seven years ago, then odds are they're just setting themselves up for disappointment.

    I love all these young guys, and I want them to stay Reds, but we have to separate the plausible reality from the dreams.

    I'll highlight this so everyone can see ... this does not mean I don't think they'll improve; I think they will.

    However, we have to be realistic with these expectations and allow for the possibility that these players are who they currently are.

    Most importantly, the team has to be built and structured with these assumptions. That way we can still win when their performances may be a little less than what we all had hoped, and we can win even more if they develop into something spectacular that's perhaps not as likely.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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