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  1. #1
    Worth The Wait
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    One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    First of all, let me clarify something. This thread has NOTHING to do with "contention" or playoff hopes. That ship sailed long ago on the 2008 season. Like all fans, I had my hopes up when the season started, but it has become very apparant that this Reds team will not be making a run in September. I accept that.

    Normally, once I've hit that "acceptance" stage, the baseball season is more or less done for me. My viewing patterns slip and I slowly sink away from the Reds. I start dreaming of football and by the time late summer/early fall arrives, the Reds are almost completely off my radar-- playing out the string never interests me.

    But this year is different. If the Reds go 80-82 with a bunch of aging vets doing it with smoke and mirrors, that does nothing for me. But if they go 80-82 with a good collection of young players (especially starting pitchers), then that is something I can support.

    This team is better than their 38-45 record. We've basically been a .500 for two months-- and I think that's what the 2008 Reds are-- an average team.

    But they are an average team with a SIGNIFICANT upside. Significant work remains to be done (especially with the lineup), but they are enough legititimate young players that I feel comfortbale in our direction. Not 100% sold, but comfortable.

    Having said that, I still think winning is important. I will feel a whole lot better about 2009 if we finish 2008 somewhere near .500 rather than with 70 wins.

    I think getting to .500 ASAP is a good/somewhat reasonable goal for this team.

    And right now may be our best and/or last shot this season.

    Next 7 games are at home against the Pirates and Nats. After that we do have 6 tough games in Chicago and Milwaukee before the break, but we come back to a 9 game homestand, including series against San Diego and Colorado.

    If we can win 5-6 games this week, we can put ourselves in position to be sitting right around .500 on August 1st. And right now, with the collection of youngsters we have, that is worth watching to me.

  2. #2
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    The Reds will never see .500.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  3. #3
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    The Reds will never see .500.

    Truth.

    Poor hitting, mediocre pitching clubs never see .500, and that's what the Reds are. The roster is made up of parts that don't fit and only a complete overhaul of the offensive club and the bullpen will make them at least a winning club.
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  4. #4
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    I like your thinking, Ed.

    If Dunn remains in Cincy all season long then I could definitely see the Reds ending the season at .500. He's due to go on a big hot streak and carry the offense for a while. Bruce and Votto will heat back up as will Phillips and EdE. The can't all slump forever. Aaron Harang is due to return to form. Cueto, Volquez, and Thompson are pitching well. Roenicke should be up soon to improve the bullpen. The Pirates and Nationals come to town next. Win five of seven from them and the Reds would be 43-47 going into Chicago and Milwaukee. Split there and they would go into the All-Star break with a 46-50 record and an easier schedule coming up after the ASB with the slumping Mets in Cincy for four games, and the struggling Rockies and Padres for six more. Then they head to Houston and Washington. There's a good chance they could get back to .500 IMO.

  5. #5
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Truth.

    Poor hitting, mediocre pitching clubs never see .500, and that's what the Reds are. The roster is made up of parts that don't fit and only a complete overhaul of the offensive club and the bullpen will make them at least a winning club.
    False

    Place the highest on base percentage players at the top of the order descending down to the lowest, every game, the rest of the way and see if the offense is poor, and the roster is constructed so poorly.

    Today, Dusty Baker put out one of the best lineups that I have seen him do all year into the game. Recently he has been placing the higher OBP players upward, he just hasn’t stacked them together, today he came even closer.

    Today Baker made good decisions in player utilization with the offense and the actual results showed, though a small sample it showed.

    It also was against a left handed pitcher, that may not be Cy Young, but the pitcher doesn’t look all that bad. I am not buying that this is a bad offense filled with a cast of misfits until the manager playing a game of chance, utilizes the highest percentages in his favor daily, stacked in an order where those highest percentages that produce the highest probabilities for scoring can prove or disprove what they can or cannot do.

    Baker makes some very good decisions today, today Dusty Baker was a good manager on the offensive side. No the OBP wasn’t stacked exactly today, but it was close enough to produce very good results.

    I tossed out the players names to assist in removing our personal bias toward individual players, so we can focus on the numbers only, those percentages are what produce the runs, not the players.

    If Dusty keeps playing the highest OBP the best that he can like today, I am going from complaining about him to defending him and praising him because his actual results from his decisions will improve the rest of the way over the first half of the season, with the offense. On the offense side as long as he plays the highest percentages in his favor.

    Today, Dusty Baker put out one of the best lineups that I have seen him do all year into the game.

    Here is that lineup.
    Season Splits
    Vs. Left handed pitching http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8075
    Code:
    		OBP	AB 	R 	H 	RBI 	BB 	
    Player Z	.462   	5 	1 	2 	0 	0 
    Player Y	.528  	4 	1 	2 	1 	1 
    Player X	.323 	5 	0 	1 	0 	0 
    Player W	.406 	5 	3 	3 	1 	0 	
    Player V	.370  	3 	2 	2 	3 	2 
    Player U	.392 	3 	1 	1 	3 	0 	
    Player T	.182 	4 	0 	1 	0 	1 
    Player S	.360  	5 	0 	0 	0 	0 	
    Player R	.341	4 	1 	2 	0 	0
    Totals 			38 	9 	14 	8 	4
    Cincinnati 9, Cleveland 5

    When it comes to the offense all the manager can do when he is playing the game of chance called baseball, is to play the highest percentage numbers in his favor.

    D. Ross scored, J. Hairston Jr. to third on wild pitch
    J. Keppinger doubled to deep center, J. Hairston Jr. scored
    B. Phillips singled to center, J. Keppinger scored
    E. Encarnacion homered to deep left, B. Phillips scored

    A. Dunn homered to deep right, B. Phillips and E. Encarnacion scored

    E. Encarnacion singled to center, B. Phillips scored

    Batting 2B - J Valentin (4, A Laffey); J Hairston Jr (14, A Laffey); J Keppinger (9, A Laffey); D Ross (4, R Bauer); B Phillips (16, R Betancourt).

    HR - E Encarnacion (13, 5th inning off A Laffey 1 on, 2 Out), A Dunn (20, 7th inning off R Bauer 2 on, 2 Out).

    RBI - J Keppinger (22), B Phillips (47), E Encarnacion 3 (32), A Dunn 3 (48).

    2-out RBI - B Phillips, E Encarnacion 2, A Dunn 3.

    That's Cincinnati Reds Baseball.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 06-29-2008 at 08:43 PM.

  6. #6
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    I am not buying that this is a bad offense filled with a cast of misfits until the manager playing a game of chance, utilizes the highest percentages in his favor daily, stacked in an order where those highest percentages that produce the highest probabilities for scoring can prove or disprove what they can or cannot do.
    It's not a good offense and even Earl Weaver couldn't make it one.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #7
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's not a good offense and even Earl Weaver couldn't make it one.
    Tell me how you know ? Show me proof, not opinion.

    From emotionally detached third party sources.

    Don’t show me some stats from the first half that indicates that some Patterson and Janish type leadoff or batted second too much in batting positions that get the most PA or AB.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 06-29-2008 at 08:56 PM.

  8. #8
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's not a good offense and even Earl Weaver couldn't make it one.
    I agree. This roster is made up of impatient hackers that never work a count except for a few exceptions. Even Bruce has adapted this method (with the obvious results--and I know he has always been a free swinger). Today, Dusty put Hairston as leadoff, which was a good idea for now anyway and followed it up with Keppinger, but the truth is most of the runs were scored on home runs (5 of the nine) against a guy who wasn't having a good day. He left pitches up to Dunn and Ecarnacion and the result was over half the run total. We also scored one run on a wild pitch.

    Today he sat Bruce and Votto (.356/.793 and .348/.831) for Hairston (.370/.828) and Hopper (.278/.482). He did bat Hopper low, which is a good thing if you have to play Hopper and that's the crux of my roster comments.

    If you must play your normal outfield (Dunn, Bruce, and Griffey) the only choice you have is Hairston or Hopper, and neither is a good outfielder. Hairston can hit, but Hopper? No. If you play Votto, Phillips, Keppinger, and Encarnacion in the infield, your only sub choices are Hairston and Valentin (Freel if he's healthy). The whole outfield, the major punch in the lineup is left handed. The traditional power positions, first and third are made up of kids who will or may be good someday, but one is a rookie and the other acts like one.

    I still say it's a mess and likely will be until some moves are made and a certain manager starts to think offensively, and mean baseball offense.. Today was an abberration.
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  9. #9
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    First of all, let me clarify something. This thread has NOTHING to do with "contention" or playoff hopes. That ship sailed long ago on the 2008 season. Like all fans, I had my hopes up when the season started, but it has become very apparant that this Reds team will not be making a run in September. I accept that.

    Normally, once I've hit that "acceptance" stage, the baseball season is more or less done for me. My viewing patterns slip and I slowly sink away from the Reds. I start dreaming of football and by the time late summer/early fall arrives, the Reds are almost completely off my radar-- playing out the string never interests me.

    But this year is different. If the Reds go 80-82 with a bunch of aging vets doing it with smoke and mirrors, that does nothing for me. But if they go 80-82 with a good collection of young players (especially starting pitchers), then that is something I can support.

    This team is better than their 38-45 record. We've basically been a .500 for two months-- and I think that's what the 2008 Reds are-- an average team.

    But they are an average team with a SIGNIFICANT upside. Significant work remains to be done (especially with the lineup), but they are enough legititimate young players that I feel comfortbale in our direction. Not 100% sold, but comfortable.

    Having said that, I still think winning is important. I will feel a whole lot better about 2009 if we finish 2008 somewhere near .500 rather than with 70 wins.

    I think getting to .500 ASAP is a good/somewhat reasonable goal for this team.

    And right now may be our best and/or last shot this season.

    Next 7 games are at home against the Pirates and Nats. After that we do have 6 tough games in Chicago and Milwaukee before the break, but we come back to a 9 game homestand, including series against San Diego and Colorado.

    If we can win 5-6 games this week, we can put ourselves in position to be sitting right around .500 on August 1st. And right now, with the collection of youngsters we have, that is worth watching to me.
    I agree with you wholeheartedly. I don't think this team can get to .500, but it can get close. Only problem is, every time we run up against the Washington's and Pittsburgh's of the world we think we're going to make a run, only to lose a series. Hopefully they can turn that around.

    Things are indeed looking up. It's not easy to accept another losing season, but the team is going to continue to develop, and the Patterson's of the world will be gone soon enough

  10. #10
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    7-0 week coming up. Health, combined with a favorable turn of the schedule and the team will be .500 at the all-star break

  11. #11
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    7-0 week coming up. Health, combined with a favorable turn of the schedule and the team will be .500 at the all-star break
    So you're saying there's a chance.....

  12. #12
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    a favorable turn of the schedule
    are you speaking from the Reds' standpoint or from their upcoming opponents?

  13. #13
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    are you speaking from the Reds' standpoint or from their upcoming opponents?
    Touche.

    But, still. The Reds have had more than their fair share of games against the best that baseball has to offer to date. The schedule comes back to the Reds a bit now, if they are going to be a .500 team, now is the time to make up some of that ground.

  14. #14
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Touche.

    But, still. The Reds have had more than their fair share of games against the best that baseball has to offer to date. The schedule comes back to the Reds a bit now, if they are going to be a .500 team, now is the time to make up some of that ground.

    I guess the Reds sparkling record to this point against teams with a losing record just doesn't leave me feeling very confident. The best that baseball has to offer as you say are not necessarily the problem, it's all the others. Attribute this lack of success to whatever you want, but it's yet another glaring example of how this team just doesn't know how to get it done on a consistent basis. Hopefully, with the right tweaks, that will change. For now, I have little reason to believe it will.

  15. #15
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    I guess the Reds sparkling record to this point against teams with a losing record just doesn't leave me feeling very confident. The best that baseball has to offer as you say are not necessarily the problem, it's all the others. Attribute this lack of success to whatever you want, but it's yet another glaring example of how this team just doesn't know how to get it done on a consistent basis. Hopefully, with the right tweaks, that will change. For now, I have little reason to believe it will.
    Yup, they've been ridiculously bad against fellow bad teams so far. I guess, given how they have hung with their betters, I think they are due for a stretch of good ball against their fellow bottom-dwellers. I still think this is a .500 team by season's end, time to show it.


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