One Last Chance To Make This a Season?

[Edskin]

First of all, let me clarify something. This thread has NOTHING to do with "contention" or playoff hopes. That ship sailed long ago on the 2008 season. Like all fans, I had my hopes up when the season started, but it has become very apparant that this Reds team will not be making a run in September. I accept that.

Normally, once I've hit that "acceptance" stage, the baseball season is more or less done for me. My viewing patterns slip and I slowly sink away from the Reds. I start dreaming of football and by the time late summer/early fall arrives, the Reds are almost completely off my radar-- playing out the string never interests me.

But this year is different. If the Reds go 80-82 with a bunch of aging vets doing it with smoke and mirrors, that does nothing for me. But if they go 80-82 with a good collection of young players (especially starting pitchers), then that is something I can support.

This team is better than their 38-45 record. We've basically been a .500 for two months-- and I think that's what the 2008 Reds are-- an average team.

But they are an average team with a SIGNIFICANT upside. Significant work remains to be done (especially with the lineup), but they are enough legititimate young players that I feel comfortbale in our direction. Not 100% sold, but comfortable.

Having said that, I still think winning is important. I will feel a whole lot better about 2009 if we finish 2008 somewhere near .500 rather than with 70 wins.

I think getting to .500 ASAP is a good/somewhat reasonable goal for this team.

And right now may be our best and/or last shot this season.

Next 7 games are at home against the Pirates and Nats. After that we do have 6 tough games in Chicago and Milwaukee before the break, but we come back to a 9 game homestand, including series against San Diego and Colorado.

If we can win 5-6 games this week, we can put ourselves in position to be sitting right around .500 on August 1st. And right now, with the collection of youngsters we have, that is worth watching to me.

[Jpup]

The Reds will never see .500.

[WVRedsFan]

The Reds will never see .500.

Truth.

Poor hitting, mediocre pitching clubs never see .500, and that's what the Reds are. The roster is made up of parts that don't fit and only a complete overhaul of the offensive club and the bullpen will make them at least a winning club.

[cincrazy]

First of all, let me clarify something. This thread has NOTHING to do with "contention" or playoff hopes. That ship sailed long ago on the 2008 season. Like all fans, I had my hopes up when the season started, but it has become very apparant that this Reds team will not be making a run in September. I accept that.

Normally, once I've hit that "acceptance" stage, the baseball season is more or less done for me. My viewing patterns slip and I slowly sink away from the Reds. I start dreaming of football and by the time late summer/early fall arrives, the Reds are almost completely off my radar-- playing out the string never interests me.

But this year is different. If the Reds go 80-82 with a bunch of aging vets doing it with smoke and mirrors, that does nothing for me. But if they go 80-82 with a good collection of young players (especially starting pitchers), then that is something I can support.

This team is better than their 38-45 record. We've basically been a .500 for two months-- and I think that's what the 2008 Reds are-- an average team.

But they are an average team with a SIGNIFICANT upside. Significant work remains to be done (especially with the lineup), but they are enough legititimate young players that I feel comfortbale in our direction. Not 100% sold, but comfortable.

Having said that, I still think winning is important. I will feel a whole lot better about 2009 if we finish 2008 somewhere near .500 rather than with 70 wins.

I think getting to .500 ASAP is a good/somewhat reasonable goal for this team.

And right now may be our best and/or last shot this season.

Next 7 games are at home against the Pirates and Nats. After that we do have 6 tough games in Chicago and Milwaukee before the break, but we come back to a 9 game homestand, including series against San Diego and Colorado.

If we can win 5-6 games this week, we can put ourselves in position to be sitting right around .500 on August 1st. And right now, with the collection of youngsters we have, that is worth watching to me.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I don't think this team can get to .500, but it can get close. Only problem is, every time we run up against the Washington's and Pittsburgh's of the world we think we're going to make a run, only to lose a series. Hopefully they can turn that around.

Things are indeed looking up. It's not easy to accept another losing season, but the team is going to continue to develop, and the Patterson's of the world will be gone soon enough

[OnBaseMachine]

I like your thinking, Ed.

If Dunn remains in Cincy all season long then I could definitely see the Reds ending the season at .500. He's due to go on a big hot streak and carry the offense for a while. Bruce and Votto will heat back up as will Phillips and EdE. The can't all slump forever. Aaron Harang is due to return to form. Cueto, Volquez, and Thompson are pitching well. Roenicke should be up soon to improve the bullpen. The Pirates and Nationals come to town next. Win five of seven from them and the Reds would be 43-47 going into Chicago and Milwaukee. Split there and they would go into the All-Star break with a 46-50 record and an easier schedule coming up after the ASB with the slumping Mets in Cincy for four games, and the struggling Rockies and Padres for six more. Then they head to Houston and Washington. There's a good chance they could get back to .500 IMO.

[membengal]

7-0 week coming up. Health, combined with a favorable turn of the schedule and the team will be .500 at the all-star break

[Matt700wlw]

7-0 week coming up. Health, combined with a favorable turn of the schedule and the team will be .500 at the all-star break

So you're saying there's a chance.....

[SMcGavin]

I think the Reds have a decent chance of being .500 at the end of the year. I'd be surprised if they ended up under 75 wins (which would be roughly .500 ball from here until the end of the year).

[Matt700wlw]

The Diamondbacks have slipped...the Tigers have began to rise.... the Cubs are dinged up...

Things can happen.....






...sometimes.

[Matt700wlw]

Wildcard:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/wildcard.jsp

Division:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

[jojo]

Wildcard:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/wildcard.jsp

Division:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

The Reds are even trailing the Pirates for the wild card....

Their hopes hinge upon the triumphant returns of Hairston and Keppinger....

Also there might be some subtraction during the trade season.....

I think we'll be treated to some fun baseball from the Reds but I don't think it'll be because of the context....

[guttle11]

I'm not even interested in the record from here on out.

I want to watch Jay Bruce adjust and take strides to become the star he has been slated to be. I want to see Volquez continue to progress and become better. I want to see the development of Johnny Cueto. I want to see Votto become a very potent overall hitter, and improve his defense. I want to see Brandon Phillips play. Jared Burton, Daryl Thompson, Edwin...

Most importantly, I want to see a young core begin to come together and improve as one. Yeah, there's a lot of work that needs to be done, but the arrow is point up for the Reds. And it's going to be the guys I mentioned doing the bulk of the building.

[*BaseClogger*]

Also there might be some subtraction during the trade season.....

Addition by subtraction?

[jojo]

Addition by subtraction?

Probably not.

[Spring~Fields]

Truth.

Poor hitting, mediocre pitching clubs never see .500, and that's what the Reds are. The roster is made up of parts that don't fit and only a complete overhaul of the offensive club and the bullpen will make them at least a winning club.

False

Place the highest on base percentage players at the top of the order descending down to the lowest, every game, the rest of the way and see if the offense is poor, and the roster is constructed so poorly.

Today, Dusty Baker put out one of the best lineups that I have seen him do all year into the game. Recently he has been placing the higher OBP players upward, he just hasn’t stacked them together, today he came even closer.

Today Baker made good decisions in player utilization with the offense and the actual results showed, though a small sample it showed.

It also was against a left handed pitcher, that may not be Cy Young, but the pitcher doesn’t look all that bad. I am not buying that this is a bad offense filled with a cast of misfits until the manager playing a game of chance, utilizes the highest percentages in his favor daily, stacked in an order where those highest percentages that produce the highest probabilities for scoring can prove or disprove what they can or cannot do.

Baker makes some very good decisions today, today Dusty Baker was a good manager on the offensive side. No the OBP wasn’t stacked exactly today, but it was close enough to produce very good results.

I tossed out the players names to assist in removing our personal bias toward individual players, so we can focus on the numbers only, those percentages are what produce the runs, not the players.

If Dusty keeps playing the highest OBP the best that he can like today, I am going from complaining about him to defending him and praising him because his actual results from his decisions will improve the rest of the way over the first half of the season, with the offense. On the offense side as long as he plays the highest percentages in his favor.

Today, Dusty Baker put out one of the best lineups that I have seen him do all year into the game.

Here is that lineup.
Season Splits
Vs. Left handed pitching http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8075

		OBP	AB 	R 	H 	RBI 	BB 	
Player Z	.462   	5 	1 	2 	0 	0 
Player Y	.528  	4 	1 	2 	1 	1 
Player X	.323 	5 	0 	1 	0 	0 
Player W	.406 	5 	3 	3 	1 	0 	
Player V	.370  	3 	2 	2 	3 	2 
Player U	.392 	3 	1 	1 	3 	0 	
Player T	.182 	4 	0 	1 	0 	1 
Player S	.360  	5 	0 	0 	0 	0 	
Player R	.341	4 	1 	2 	0 	0
Totals 			38 	9 	14 	8 	4

Cincinnati 9, Cleveland 5

When it comes to the offense all the manager can do when he is playing the game of chance called baseball, is to play the highest percentage numbers in his favor.

D. Ross scored, J. Hairston Jr. to third on wild pitch
J. Keppinger doubled to deep center, J. Hairston Jr. scored
B. Phillips singled to center, J. Keppinger scored
E. Encarnacion homered to deep left, B. Phillips scored

A. Dunn homered to deep right, B. Phillips and E. Encarnacion scored

E. Encarnacion singled to center, B. Phillips scored

Batting 2B - J Valentin (4, A Laffey); J Hairston Jr (14, A Laffey); J Keppinger (9, A Laffey); D Ross (4, R Bauer); B Phillips (16, R Betancourt).

HR - E Encarnacion (13, 5th inning off A Laffey 1 on, 2 Out), A Dunn (20, 7th inning off R Bauer 2 on, 2 Out).

RBI - J Keppinger (22), B Phillips (47), E Encarnacion 3 (32), A Dunn 3 (48).

2-out RBI - B Phillips, E Encarnacion 2, A Dunn 3.

That's Cincinnati Reds Baseball.