Chris Dickerson

[Kc61]

Dickerson's last 1+ years in Louisville:

652 AB
174 H
22 2B
14 3B (!)
23 HR
89 RBI
97 BB
215 K (ouch!)
44/56 SB's
.816 OPS

If we are now going to watch this team smell it up from here on out, I'd rather it be with the future. Give this kid a chance. He's only 26 and he's already better than Junior, Hopper, Freel, and of course, Corey Patterson. Oh yes, I'd also wager that he's better than one Mr. Jerry Hairston as well.

I think at some point the next wave of AAA guys will come up for a look see. But you are equating minor league numbers with major league performance.

Isn't it an exaggeration to say that Dickerson is better than Junior, Hopper, Freel, Patterson and Hairston? Based on an .816 minor league OPS in his good period? (Overall Dickerson's minor league OPS is .767.)

Yes, I'm in favor of giving Dickerson a shot. I thought he might even be a fourth or fifth outfielder all season.

But let's keep some perspective about him and the other minor league guys. They may be able to contribute some day, but very, very few are destined to be good players on a winning team.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

But you are equating minor league numbers with major league performance.

No, I am not. If Dickerson could go .750 (with potential to get better), I'd be fine. And I think .750 right now is very realistic. It would be equal to Griffey and better than Hopper, Patterson, Freel, and Hairston and would come at a fraction of the price (with better or equal defense).

Isn't it an exaggeration to say that Dickerson is better than Junior, Hopper, Freel, Patterson and Hairston? Based on an .816 minor league OPS in his good period? (Overall Dickerson's minor league OPS is .767.)

I don't think it is. My opinion is that he'd be more productive offensively than Hopper, Freel, Patterson, and Hairston. I also think he'd be close to Junior offensively, but not be a statue in RF.

Kepp's minor league numbers are not much better, but all we've ever heard of is how he's always hit wherever he's been.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'd love to see Griffey traded and Bruce moved back to right field with Chris Dickerson implemented as the starting center fielder against RHP. Dickerson is crushing right handers to the tune of .294/.388/.523 in 218 AAA atbats this season. Start him against RHP and find someone to platoon with him against left handers. Dickerson in CF and Bruce in RF gives the Reds a very good outfield defense, something we Reds fans aren't used to seeing.

[SMcGavin]

No, I am not. If Dickerson could go .750 (with potential to get better), I'd be fine. And I think .750 right now is very realistic.

That's his point... Dickerson's AAA numbers don't translate to a .750 guy in the majors. His major league equivalency, based on the numbers you gave:

.228/.312/.369

That's a .681 OPS. Sure it's possible he outperforms that, and since he's a good defender I wouldn't have a problem with giving him a trial if we could trade Griffey. But from a objective view, it's pretty unlikely Chris Dickerson will ever be an acceptable MLB starter.

I don't mean to call you out, because it's not just you and it's not just Dickerson. People on this forum almost always overrate the eventual ML impact of our prospects. That's the nature of being a fan, and it makes this a fun board, but it's not realistic.

[flyer85]

as Bruce has shown, that AAA to MLB transition can be hard on the OPS ... as it is with most all players. It takes a year or two to figure it out, if they ever do. The rarity is the player that makes a seamless transition from minors to majors.

[RedsManRick]

I think Dickerson is likely no more than a 4th OF. But the fact that he hasn't gotten the opportunity yet bugs me. At some point, you've got to let a guy like this have his shot. Either let him be an asset to the organization or use him in a trade. Letting him waste away in Louisville just doesn't help anybody.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

That's his point... Dickerson's AAA numbers don't translate to a .750 guy in the majors. His major league equivalency, based on the numbers you gave:

.228/.312/.369

That's a .681 OPS. .

So, .816 goes to .681? Wow, I guess you have to go crazy and OPS .900 to 1.000 in AAA to project as a productive hitter in the bigs. Personally, I'd rather watch and find out before I write him off.

Regardless, you won't know if he doesn't get a shot. And I'm not calling Dickerson the second coming. Actually my point was that I'm also sick and tired of prospects being overrated and I'd like to see a "non-prospect" (Dickerson) get a chance.

This team sucks and is not going anywhere. No point in not seeing what you have in AAA. And it's not like you have to mess with the 40-man as he's already on the roster.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

And even if he's at .681, it would be better than Patterson and not much worse than Freel, Hopper, and Hairston.

Also, it wouldn't mean he's .681 for life. It's not like the Reds are in a pennant race and can't afford someone coming up and going .681 in thier first look.

Griffey, Freel, Hopper, and Hairston are not part of the future of this team. We may need a guy like Dickerson to come up and platoon with a Stubbs and I can guarantee he won't be going .681, if it's in a platoon role.

[kpresidente]

For the record, his OPS equivalency vs. RH is .724.

[SMcGavin]

So, .816 goes to .681? Wow, I guess you have to go crazy and OPS .900 to 1.000 in AAA to project as a productive hitter in the bigs. Personally, I'd rather watch and find out before I write him off.

To quote myself: "Sure it's possible he outperforms that, and since he's a good defender I wouldn't have a problem with giving him a trial if we could trade Griffey." If that is writing him off... OK.

The most likely scenario is that Dickerson comes up here, plays good defense, and can't hit enough to become anything better than a reserve outfielder. That's fine, and it doesn't mean we shouldn't give him a shot in a lost season, but I wouldn't get my hopes too high.

And to address your first point, that is correct, guys who become capable MLB hitters are usually ones who mashed minor league pitching. Or alternatively, guys who held their own against minor league pitching at very young age, and were then allowed to do most of their improving in the majors.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I never said the guy would be a star.

I think we basically are in agreement.

His numbers in AAA warrant a call-up, regardless of their projected regression.

[mace]

Was interested in Jocketty's comment that they want to see how the OF of Dunn, Hairston and Bruce plays out. Judging by that, my guess is they'll go with that for a month, then make Dickerson a September call-up and dabble in that little experiment. Dickerson-Hairston seems like a pretty fair platoon to me, and when Dickerson plays Hairston would be available for SS.

[Spring~Fields]

I'd love to see Griffey traded and Bruce moved back to right field with Chris Dickerson implemented as the starting center fielder against RHP. Dickerson is crushing right handers to the tune of .294/.388/.523 in 218 AAA atbats this season. Start him against RHP and find someone to platoon with him against left handers. Dickerson in CF and Bruce in RF gives the Reds a very good outfield defense, something we Reds fans aren't used to seeing.

Are they holding him back because he bats left ? Doesn't seem like a good reason to me if it is.

[Kingspoint]

They're not holding him back. They're letting him continue his growth. He hasn't ever hit like this before. It's best to let him continue doing it so that it becomes a habit.

[AmarilloRed]

It may be that they are simply letting him get regular ABs in Louisville until September, then call him up when the rosters expand.