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Thread: Chris Dickerson

  1. #61
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    It's not rocket science but fans might want to consider the whole record before forming these kinds of absolute conclusions.

    Dickerson has this year done well at AAA. But his overall AAA numbers coming into this year were weaker. In 2007 his OPS at AAA was below .800 and at AA was below .700 in 114 AA at bats.

    Dickerson's lifetime minor league OPS is .772.

    Dickerson has fanned 682 times in just over 2171 minor league at bats, which is a lot for a guy who has slugged .413.

    The issue with Dickerson is whether he has finally overcome his offensive issues, or whether he is another 26 year old player who has figured out AAA. I'm sure he will be up with the Reds by September, at the latest, but to compare his offense to Votto -- who succeeded at AAA as a 23 year old hitter -- is not a particularly good comparison.
    Dickerson was always a toolsy guy with good potential but was still somewhat raw. Many of us on here have been predicting him to breakout for the past two or three seasons now, and while he showed glimpses of brilliance at times, he never quite put it together until this season. I think he's got a chance to develop into a poor man's Curtis Granderson, who like Dickerson is a speedy LH hitting center fielder who K's a lot and walks a lot. Dickerson also struggles mightily against LH pitchers much like Granderson. I'm not saying he's going to be develop into that type of player but I think he can be an average to be above average hitter for a center fielder.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds callup Chris Dickerson, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan and playing them everyday in September. The offense would be awful but it would be nice to see some actual defense at key positions.
    Why would the offense be worse? Dickerson will be better than Patterson. How could you lose a bet like that? His defense would be night and day over Hairston. Better speed than even CPatt. Hanigan has always had a good OBP, his one brief stint in the majors was the same, very small sample but non-BA driven OBP translates better than BA or Slg. Hanigan should certainly hit better than Bako. The only place the offense would take a real hit with those 3 up is at SS. My guess is that the offense would suffer only slightly but the defense with Janish, Hanigan and Dickerson would improve tremendously. Combined with Phillips, the Reds up the middle defense would be very very good. Having Kepp coming off the bench would strengthen the reserves, too. And if Bako and Patterson went bye bye as a result so much the better. Hairston could still play CF against lefties which would help, and be available as a reserve the rest of the time.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 08-03-2008 at 01:55 PM.

  4. #63
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds callup Chris Dickerson, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan and playing them everyday in September. The offense would be awful but it would be nice to see some actual defense at key positions.
    Acctually the offense wouldn't change much. As Dickerson could do no worse than Patterson and Hanigan would probably be a big upgrade offensively to the other catchers, then you have Janish who wouldn't start but.

    So really the offense would improve along with the defense hmmmm....

  5. #64
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Why would the offense be worse? Dickerson will be better than Patterson. How could you lose a bet like that? His defense would be night and day over Hairston. Better speed than even CPatt. Hanigan has always had a good OBP, his one brief stint in the majors was the same, very small sample but non-BA driven OBP translates better than BA or Slg. Hanigan should certainly hit better than Bako. The only place the offense would take a real hit with those 3 up is at SS. My guess is that the offense would suffer only slightly but the defense with Janish, Hanigan and Dickerson would improve tremendously. Combined with Phillips, the Reds up the middle defense would be very very good. Having Kepp coming off the bench would strengthen the reserves, too. And if Bako and Patterson went bye bye as a result so much the better. Hairston could still play CF against lefties which would help, and be available as a reserve the rest of the time.
    Good point. Now that I think of it, even the drop offensively from Keppinger to Janish wouldn't be all that drastic with the way Kepp has hit lately.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  6. #65
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Dickerson was always a toolsy guy with good potential but was still somewhat raw. Many of us on here have been predicting him to breakout for the past two or three seasons now, and while he showed glimpses of brilliance at times, he never quite put it together until this season. I think he's got a chance to develop into a poor man's Curtis Granderson, who like Dickerson is a speedy LH hitting center fielder who K's a lot and walks a lot. Dickerson also struggles mightily against LH pitchers much like Granderson. I'm not saying he's going to be develop into that type of player but I think he can be an average to be above average hitter for a center fielder.
    I don't disagree with the possibility he may be a decent platoon centerfielder. I do disagree with people calling the Reds incompetent because Dickerson is still in the minor leagues.

    For whatever people expected might happen previously, this is the first good offensive showing for this player and it is entirely reasonable for the Reds to let him play out the string with the Bats this year. Bring him up for a September call up. Let him experience a successful AAA season before throwing him to the major leageue wolves.

    Personally, I would move him up more aggressively, but I understand what the Reds are doing.

    I also opposed sending Janish down. I don't think he's going to improve much in AAA and I think his defense brings some stability to the Reds when he's in there. And, at this point, I'd have Hanigan up and certainly Roenicke.

    But I understand the Reds' approach. There are a lot of kids on the team already and I understand them going more slowly before the next batch arrives. And Dickerson probably will benefit (at least in his confidence) by the success he's having at AAA.

  7. #66
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    It's not rocket science but fans might want to consider the whole record before forming these kinds of absolute conclusions.
    What absolute conclusion? That Dickerson should be called up and playing over Corey Patterson? Umm, okay.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Dickerson has this year done well at AAA. But his overall AAA numbers coming into this year were weaker.
    That's why I averaged his OPS over the two seasons. Last year .796. This year .841. It's .820 over two years. And look at that. Improvement.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    In 2007 his OPS at AAA was below .800 and at AA was below .700 in 114 AA at bats.
    His 2007 OPS in AAA was .796 and I could care less about 114 AB's in AA, when he's had 800+ plate appearances, since then, at AAA.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Dickerson's lifetime minor league OPS is .772.
    And getting better everyday. Is it not possible to start slowly and then improve? Take a look at Grady Sizemore's minor league numbers (.788 career minor league OPS) and how they've improved each step of the way. Look at Jeff Keppinger. I just don't understand why some guys are written off just because they might develop their game later on his life. If we can give the second coming, Jeff Keppinger, nearly 600 plate appearances in little over a year, the least we can do his give Dickerson a shot, especially considering the alternative is now currently ranked 906 out of 912 hitters in VORP.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Dickerson has fanned 682 times in just over 2171 minor league at bats, which is a lot for a guy who has slugged .413.
    Two words. Corey Patterson. That's your alternative. And he's 29 and sucks pretty bad.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But to compare Dickerson's offense to Votto -- who succeeded at AAA as a 23 year old hitter -- is not a particularly good comparison.
    I think you know I wasn't comparing him to Votto in that sense. And frankly, I don't care if one is 23 and the other is 26. Jeff Keppinger was 27 when he was called up and although his career minor league OPS was under .800 all we ever heard was how he could hit, hit, hit. Hogwash.

  8. #67
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    KC, one other thing. If I remember correctly, last year you were leading 26-year old Phil Dumatrait's bandwagon even though his numbers in AAA were nothing special. You kept saying that he deserved a chance. After each pummeling, you would continue to defend him saying he was decent and that he should be given another chance.

    Eventually after getting lit up like Homer Bailey (on his worst night) for the 6th straight start, you conceded that he was a bust and were wrong about him.

    I guess I just don't understand why you were so adament about Phil Dumtrait getting a chance at 26 and so hesitent to give Dickerson one. At least Dickerson is shining in AAA, unlike Dumatrait's 213 IP in 2006 and 2007.

  9. #68
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Reds left fielder Danny Dorn stumbled toward the end of July with an 0-for-9 skid, but his 10 homers in the month brought him to 15 with Double-A Chattanooga and a .533 slugging percentage in 72 games for the Lookouts. Another Reds outfielder who thrived in July, 26-year-old Chris Dickerson, hit eight of his 11 home runs in July while batting .326/.422/.717 for the month. Hes one triple short of reaching double figures in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases. The only other minor leaguers to have done that this year are Twins outfielder Jason Pridie (Triple-A Rochester) and Red Sox outfielder Josh Riddick (high Class A Lancaster, Double-A Portland). U.S. Olympian Nate Schierholtz (Giants) is one stolen base short of the distinction.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/...1480#more-1480
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #69
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Another update on Dickerson:

    He went 3-for-5 last night with a double and 4 RBI and has two straight 3-hit games bringing his 2008 season totals to .284/.383/.482 - .865 OPS with 25 stolen bases in 32 attempts. He's got 14 doubles, 9 triples, and 11 homeruns in 328 atbats. He's hitting .295/.394/.529 - .922 against RHP and .250/.354/.345 - .699 against LHP. Even the .354 OBP against LHP isn't bad at all. Seriously, this guy can't help the Reds right now? What are you waiting on Walt?
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  11. #70
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    You have to imagine Dickerson will get a cup of coffee in September if he's not here sooner. Even if he's only a platoon CF, it's hard to deny that the guy deserves a chance. Bring him up and give up 200 PA against major league pitching starting tomorrow. Andy Phillips or Valentin can hit the road.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #71
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    With Dickerson's speed and defense, he'd be worth more than Phillips' and Valentin's spots on the roster combined. I'd rather carry a 24-man roster with Dickerson than having those two guys on board.

  13. #72
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    Acctually the offense wouldn't change much. As Dickerson could do no worse than Patterson and Hanigan would probably be a big upgrade offensively to the other catchers, then you have Janish who wouldn't start but.
    I don't see Hanigan as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Ross has a 3-year .767 OPS, whereas Hanigan's ML equivalency is .615.

  14. #73
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    KC, one other thing. If I remember correctly, last year you were leading 26-year old Phil Dumatrait's bandwagon even though his numbers in AAA were nothing special. You kept saying that he deserved a chance. After each pummeling, you would continue to defend him saying he was decent and that he should be given another chance.

    Eventually after getting lit up like Homer Bailey (on his worst night) for the 6th straight start, you conceded that he was a bust and were wrong about him.

    I guess I just don't understand why you were so adament about Phil Dumtrait getting a chance at 26 and so hesitent to give Dickerson one. At least Dickerson is shining in AAA, unlike Dumatrait's 213 IP in 2006 and 2007.
    I don't think you are accurately setting out my view on Dickerson. I've said consistently that I would bring him up with the Reds. Last off-season, I started a thread suggesting that he should be a backup on the team this year.

    Where I disagree is all the nasty comments about the Reds' competence because Dickerson is at AAA. I don't think it's unreasonable to let him finish the AAA season, his first real good offensive year, and then bring him up in September. It's not my approach, but it's reasonable and understandable.

    The Reds have a number of young players and I fully understand the team waiting for September before promoting the next batch. Likely, Dickerson, Hanigan, Janish (again), Roenicke, and Herrera. Possibly Pelland if he gets healthy enough.

    If you look at Dickerson's minor league progression, it is perfectly reasonable to let him build confidence at AAA now that he's having some offensive success. I think either approach -- promotion now or in September -- is fair.

    If I recall correctly, my main point with Dumatrait was that he had success at various levels after a break in period. Many RedsZoners wanted him out after only a few major league starts. I thought he deserved some time to get comfortable and then might well succeed. His performance ultimately required his return to the minor leagues.

    I will similarly support Dickerson when he comes up. He's a great athlete and I hope he does great. But it's not terrible that his call up will likely be in September.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-05-2008 at 05:26 PM.

  15. #74
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Delete. Extra post.

  16. #75
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    Re: Chris Dickerson

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I don't see Hanigan as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Ross has a 3-year .767 OPS, whereas Hanigan's ML equivalency is .615.
    I do see him as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Hanigan is currently hitting .310 at Louisville, which is much better than our best hitting catcher, Valentin at .247. There will be a dropoff when Hanigan reaches the major leagues, but I wouldn't think he will hit less than .270. Ross will certainly hit you a number of HRs, but he doesn't hit well enough the rest of the time to be starting over Hanigan.


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