So, with 2008 gone, what do the Reds do for 2009?????

[red-in-la]

Here are some of my thoughts:

They need to build a pitching staff around Harang, Volquez, Cueto and Arroyo. They NEED...NEED...NEED one more Harang-type to be able to compete.

They need the disappearance of JR and maybe even Dunn....yes and Dunn, so that they can spend money on a couple of lower teer FA outfielders and a high end starting pitcher.

They need to sign Hairston to a couple year contract so he can play until a youngster is available.

Next season, I still think they could get along pretty well with Hairston in CF, Keppinger at SS and Bruce in RF. They just need a new LF (or 1B if Votto moves to LF).

I think it might be interesting to pull an old Big Red MAchine trick (sort of). Move Votto to LF, move Encarncion to 1B, and sign a FA 3B (or trade for one).

My 2009 opening day line up would be:

Hairston - CF
Keppinger - SS
Bruce - RF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Encarnacion - 3B
Somebody not named Patterson - LF
Ross - C
Volquez - P

As I pointed out above, maybe the line up could change to:

Hairston - CF
Keppinger - 3B
Bruce - RF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - LF
Encarnacion - 1B
Gonzo (or that minor league prospect ?name?) - SS
Ross - C
Volquez / Harang / Sheets????? - P

Thoughts? because I am tired of talking about 2008......

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

Sheets? Wow, what are the odds that that could ever happen? Doesn't he have somewhere specific in mind already - like Boston, N.Y. or L.A.?

[KronoRed]

Hairston has a track record for stinking that's a lot longer then what he's done this year, he shouldn't be given anything other then a 1 year incentive laden deal.

I'd be trying to move Arroyo just so his contract isn't a Milton type weight in a few years, FA starting pitchers are probably way out of this teams league, Walt needs to find another Volquez.

[klw]

Sheets will be an interesting FA to watch this offseason. It will be an interesting case of injury risk being balanced against ace level talent. Who will take the risk to pay the money for someone with a track record of injuries?

[OldXOhio]

Super subs have commanded value in recent trade deadline deals - why not get something for Hairston?

[Strikes Out Looking]

They need to not give up on 2008 when they are only 4 games under .500.
They need to figure out who the OF will be comprised of in 2009 (and maybe the rest of this season--does anyone really think that losing the current RF for the rest of the year would actually hurt this team?)
They need to keep the pitching at least at this years level, and score about another 1/2 run per game.
They need to stop signing spare parts (i.e Freel, and others) to contracts that keep the teams flexibility down.

[REDREAD]

I disagree with another starting pitcher being the #1 priority.

If you believe in the core of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, and Volquez, then you just try to sign an approximately .500 pitcher to round out the staff (what Fogg was intended to be).

If Dunn and Jr leave, you are losing two important parts of a very weak offense.
The starting 8 needs upgraded. We'll need two new OF. Ideally, we'd like a better defensive SS. Ideally, we'd want an upgrade at catcher.

Keppinger has had a nice little run, as has Harriston. I'm not saying they should be dumped, but I'm not so sure they are cornerstone type players that should be counted on. By all means, play them now, but look for opportunities to upgrade them.

We also have to consider that while Bruce is very talented, asking him (and EdE/Votto) to carry the offense next year is not a good idea at all.

[HokieRed]

I disagree about Arroyo. The contract calls for 22 million over the next two years for a guy with an ERA north of 6 right now and who will very likely be your number 5 starter two years out--assuming decent development from just one of Thompson, Bailey, or Maloney (or one of the other options). That's money I'd move right now to a team--I'm still hoping Philadelphia--that needs pitching and will give us a prospect. Then, if necessary, we spend part of the money on an option at least as good as Arroyo--e.g. Kyle Lohse.

[Degenerate39]

I give Hairston a one year deal and that's it. Only Krivsky would give him a multiyear deal. Get Dunn back here for another few years. Get rid of Junior.

[flyer85]

unload all the guys that Dusty has a past history with(Patterson, Hairston , Bako)

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Decisions on current 25-man roster for 2009:

PENDING FREE AGENTS

-Two of Bako, Valentin, and Ross need to go. Maybe all three. My order of preference for dumping: 1. Valentin (he cannot be let go of soon enough); 2. Ross; 3. Bako. I'd consider re-signing Bako for cheap (750K - 1M) as he seems to work good with the young pitchers. With the bat, anything over .700 OPS from him is a bonus, but more than likely he will be around .650.

-Patterson - bye bye. Nice guy who seems to care and work hard, judging from his over-exaggerated "I'm a grinder" facial expressions, but like Javy, I think it's an understatement to say he cannot be gone soon enough.

-Weathers - Nice guy. Has done a lot for this team the past few years, but he needs to go bye bye, right now. Hopefully he can be dealt for anything or maybe packaged for something, but definitely not brought back in '09. Let's just say this. If any of Patterson, Valentin, or Weathers is brought back in 2009 we need ANOTHER new GM. I am reminded of Die Hard when the dude that was the principal in The Breakfast Club looks up after the helicopter explodes into the side of the building and says, "Guess we're gonna need some new FBI guys". If Walt brings back any of those guys he'll be slamming the chopper into the building.

"Guess we're gonna need some new GM guys."

-Josh Fogg - Not currently on the 25-man (DL), but will be soon. Do I really need to explain myself on this? Bye bye.

-Jerry Hairston - Nope, I'm not buying it. Look, if he wants to come back cheap for the bench, great, but I'm not falling for this one again. Be very afraid that they sign him to a long-term deal. Very afraid.

-Ken Griffey, Jr. - Out of respect for one of the best who did it the right way, I will not make any smart-alek remarks here. Hopefully he is traded within the next month and goes somewhere he is happy (where he can DH) and makes a run for a ring. Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense for him. I'm just not so sure about them. Anything in return for him would be a bonus. Regardless, he shouldn't be considered by the Reds for 2009.

-Jeremy Affeldt - decent reliever that I would re-sign for cheap. I think he has been a bit overrated so far, but 1. He is a lefty. 2. He throws pretty hard. 3. He's got pretty decent stuff. Again, I wouldn't pay him anything more than he's making now, but I'd consider bringing him back.

-Adam Dunn - Many (long) threads have been discussed on this topic and much good debate has been made from both sides. I honestly don't know anymore. This is THE decision of the whole trade/off-season. What would it take to get him to re-sign and what would be a good length? In a perfect world we keep re-signing him for 1-year. I'd pay him 16 million for 1 year. I'd pay him 30 million for 2 years and I'd pay him 42 for 3 years, but as many have said, anything over that is a YUGE risk. If he would have made the move to 1B years ago, I make this happen. I just don't like thinking about him in LF in 3-4 years and, believe me, I think his deficiency in the OF is way overplayed. He is not that bad, especially for a LF'er. He has actually progressed to my eye, but he does have those old player skills and all that. I'm not sure. If we can get Kemp from LA, I do that deal. I can't get too excited about letting him walk for draft picks. No thanks. Not when I don't trust this front office to make a solid early pick (see: Stubbs, Mesoraco).

So, to rate the current 25 man-roster going backwards (least important to most important for 2009), mine goes like this:

Free agents-to-be lead the list for obvious reasons....

1. Javy Valentin
2. Corey Patterson
3. Josh Fogg*
4. David Weathers
5. Ken Griffey, Jr.
6. David Ross
7. Paul Bako
8. Jerry Hairston
9. Jeremy Affeldt
10. Adam Dunn
------------------------------------
rest of roster (remember, names at the top are less important and more expendable due to an assortment of reasons)

11. Alex Gonzalez
12. Ryan Freel
13. Bronson Arroyo
14. Mike Lincoln (he'd be higher on list, but he's not a FA and he's cheap, unlike Gonzo, Freel, and Arroyo)
15. Francisco Cordero
16. Norris Hopper
------------------------------------
The last 10 are more of the "keeper's" with the last 5 being "untouchables"

"keepers"
17. Bill Bray
18. Jared Burton
19. Jeff Keppinger
20. Edwin Encarnacion
21. Aaron Harang
------------------------------------

"untouchables"
22. Brandon Phillips
23. Joey Votto
24. Johnny Cueto
25. Edinson Volquez
26. Jay Bruce

*currently on DL.

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AAAA DUDES

Below is a list of players on the 40-man roster, that are not currently on the 25-man roster. I have them ranked from least to most important. Just like above, the guys listed towards the top are the ones that are most expendable and in this case, the Reds can most afford to move off the 40-man roster.

Who I drop from the 40-man:

1. R. Ramirez - why is he on the roster again? Oh yeah, so that he can be protected. From what, I ask?
2. Cabrera - uhhh.
3. McBeth - he probably would not be claimed if pulled off the roster.
4. Hanigan or Tatum - pick one to keep. Probably Hanigan since he's closer to helping out with hopeful departures of (at least two of) Valentin, Ross, and Bako for '09. Colina could replace Tatum, if lost.
------------------------------------

Next in line to be dropped:

5. Coffey - might as well keep him around for the rest of 2008, but probably shouldn't be brought back in '09, unless it's a minor league deal.
6. Belisle - insurance
------------------------------------

Hang on for 2009 and possibly beyond:

7. Pelland - will need to step up soon or may only ever amount to poor man's Bill Bray (AAAA version).
8. Janish - good glove, hopefully improves at the plate, but a necessity for MI depth/insurance.
9. Dickerson - probably better than Patterson, Freel, Hopper, and Griffey. Solid 4th OF'er for 2009.
10 Herrera - solid little reliever. Hopefully he continues to get the opportunities that Carlos Guevara never did.
11. Thompson - hopefully he's more than Elizardo Ramirez part II, but I'm not holding my breath.
12. Bailey - needs a change of scenery, whether that be hunting/fishing or another organization. Too late to sell. Stock can't get lower.

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MINOR LEAGUE MOVES I WOULD MAKE NOW

-Promote Chris Dickerson to the big club. He takes Patterson's place. Patterson can be released, kept to pinch-run, or baby-sit Darren Baker on the bench. I don't care. Just never let him step up to the plate again. He's lost anything he might have had. If you need to whack someone to make room for him, whack Javy. The myth that Javy's a decent PH or emergency 3rd catcher, for justifying keeping his dead weight on the roster, has been way overplayed.

-Promote Shaun Cumberland from AA to AAA to take Dickerson's spot.

-Louisville OF would then be:

LF: Drew T. Anderson
CF: Cumberland
RF: Mackowiak/Griffin

-Keep an eye on Adam Rosales as he is starting to rake in AAA.

-It's probably not necessary now, but at some point Matt Maloney and Josh Roenicke need to be moved to the 40-man roster, as they are closer to making an impact than any other pitcher currently on the 40-man in AAA.

-Promote Drew Stubbs to AA (replacing Cumberland) to see if he can hit in a more hitter's friendly league, albeit at the next level. We need to see what we got with him, like yesterday.

-Chattanooga OF would then be:

LF: Dorn (actually wouldn't mind seeing him in AAA playing OF over Mackowiack and Griffin)
CF: Stubbs
RF: Henry

-Chris Heisey may be an alternative for the future (if Stubbs fails in AA) as he has bettered Stubbs at every level along the way offensively and is the same age. Just not sure how he compares defensively.

-Promote Robert Manuel to AAA. Only 24 and lighting it up in Chattanooga. 56-8 (K/BB) in 44.2 IP with a .83 WHIP. Let us not forget our former GM, who shall remain nameless, let Guevara and his 87-23 (K/BB) in 62 IP go last year for a goofy fling with Sergio Valenzuela. Just pure silliness. Hopefully the Walt is not that stupid to miss out on giving another decent reliever (within his own system) a chance.

-Promote Ramon Geronimo from Hi-A Sarasota to AA-Chattanooga to take Manuel's place.

-Promote Sam Lecure and Ben Jukich to Louisville. I'd like to see what they can do. Between this year and last, Lecure has now pitched 201 innings in AA (186 K, 84 BB). He's 24 and he's ready to make a move. Jukich is intriguing. He's a LH that appears to have pretty good stuff. Probably no better than Maloney as his AA numbers are certainly not better than what Maloney put up in AA. He is two years older than Maloney, though, and you'll never know if you don't push him soon. I think he's ready to make the next step. Let's see what they are both made of. If you have to whack one of the journeymen starters [cough]Pettyjohn[cough] up there to make room, then do it.

[OnBaseMachine]

Jerry Hairston is currently playing great with the Reds, well above expectations, but counting on him to repeat this next season is a huge mistake IMO. I would trade him right now if a team offered something decent for him, though it wouldn't bother me if they retained him for next season as strictly a bench player. Chances are he'll eventually fall back to earth. As for Keppinger, I love the guy but I don't think he should be the everyday SS next season. His range was average at best before but it's even worse since his knee injury. I would love to see a young rangy SS acquired to be the everyday SS and Keppinger kept around as a super utility guy.

[Benihana]

Very nice post BuckeyeRedleg. I completely agree with almost all of it.

As far as other major league moves to make, here are some to consider:

1. Acquire a RH-power hitting OF

There are two available options here: Matt Kemp and Jason Bay

A.) Matt Kemp would be the most ideal considering his age and contract situation. Offer the Dodgers any kind of package that might include guys like Dunn, Stubbs, Francisco, Valaika, Arroyo, Hairston, and/or Keppinger for Matt Kemp. Obviously the package wouldn't include all of these guys, but see who they like, and if they're willing to bite. I would be willing to move any three guys off this list for Kemp. If they want four or five, then I'd ask them to include one of the prospects named below.

I do know they are open to discussing Kemp, and they have had interest in Adam Dunn in the past. They also are currently shopping for a SS because Furcal can't stay healthy and most likely won't be re-signed. Additionally, if they take a liking to several guys mentioned above, the Dodgers have some interesting prospects that could be included in the deal like Andy LaRoche (3B) and Chin-Ling Hu (SS). While I really like what Hairston and Keppinger have done, I agree with REDREAD's sentiments and therefore would be willing to include one of them in the deal in order to get it done, and let the other one man SS for the time being.

Kemp has superstar potential, and has shown he can hit in the majors at a young age. Additionally, he is right-handed and above-average defensively. An OF of Votto, Kemp, and Bruce for the next 5+ years has me salivating.

B.) The Pirates have been trying to move Jason Bay, a notorious Reds killer, for some time. While I believe he is a FA after the 2009 season, I think he would be a great target for the Reds, and would go a long way towards replacing Dunn and Jr.'s production in the offense. Pittsburgh would love to rid themselves of Bay's salary and get a nice young prospect in return. Meanwhile, Homer Bailey has been an enigma no one in Cincinnati can figure out. While as a general rule, I like hanging on to all top-notch pitching prospects, I truly believe that Homer may never see big league success in Cincinnati. He would be well served by a change of scenery. Offer Bailey to Pittsburgh for Bay, and I think you might well have a deal. If you can't acquire Kemp, (or maybe even if you can), having Bay in the OF would be the next best option. In this scenario, I would then let Dunn walk and take the comp. picks in order to help replenish the farm system. Bay would give you at least one year of Dunn-like offensive production with much better defense (and arguably a better approach/attitude.) Then you could look into re-signing him for much less than you'd ever have to pay Dunn.

2. Upgrade the catching position

Now this is an interesting task considering the fact that most teams are looking to do the very same thing. However, there is one team with an abundant surplus at the position, the Texas Rangers. With Gerald Laird and Jarrod Saltalamacchia manning the position at the major league level, the Rangers have two prospects in the high minors that are tearing the cover off the ball with no hope of ever catching for the big league club: Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. I would be on the phone with Jon Daniels yesterday figuring out what it would take to pry one of them loose. There has been much speculation on these boards as to what it would take, but logic says that pitching would be the name of the game. Homer Bailey might well be a name they'd be interested in, and the Reds might have to consider that given the reasoning listed above in the Bay proposal. I would start the bidding much lower, but would consider moving Bailey if that's what it took. Bailey for Nelson Cruz and Teagarden or Ramirez might be the winner. Now if Bailey has already gone to Pittsburgh in the Bay deal, I would see if the Rangers had interest in guys like Matt Maloney, Drew Stubbs (although probably not considering they have Hamilton) and Juan Francisco.

3. Upgrade the SS position

This is the least critical of the three mandatory moves as Keppinger and Hairston have been very serviceable at the position. However, their defense leaves something to be desired, and their respective track recoreds are not yet long enough to be relied upon for the long term. While I have been advocating moving Phillips to SS for a couple years now, I just don't believe that's really in the Reds' plans. I don't have as specific of targets picked out as with the other two options. As mentioned above, Hu of the Dodgers could be an interesting target. The Angels also have a couple of interesting names in Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood. With the injuries to Brad Penny and Kelvim Escobar, the two LA teams might have an interest in Bronson Arroyo. While I don't believe it is critical to shed Arroyo and his contract at this point because I do think he provides very good production for a #4 pitcher, it wouldn't be a bad thing to get out from under that deal, especially going forward. I would gauge their interest in Arroyo and take it from there, they may have to throw in a couple of sweeteners in order to get something done, as I don't think either of the three prospects projects to anything above average at this point. Another interesting name is Reid Brignac of the Devil Rays. With the drafting of Tim Beckham and the performance of the major league team, Brignac will most certainly be available. The Rays are in need of bullpen help at the major league level, and might be willing to divulge Brignac for the services of David Weathers and Florida-native Ken Griffey Jr. I would include $4 million in the deal if I'm the Reds to cover Jr.'s buyout, if in fact this could get the deal done.

Now, getting back to the original title of this thread, looking ahead to 2009, let's see what we could potentially have:

First, Dunn, Griffey, and likely Arroyo (depending on whether you deal him for a SS) are all gone in this scenario. That frees up almost $40 MM for next year. Furthermore, you have hung onto top prospects Alonso, Frazier, Mesoraco, and Daryl Thompson. Assuming Arroyo is gone, I would like to sign a starting pitcher to a short term deal (3 years max) so that you have some serious money coming off the books once guys like Volquez, Cueto, Votto and Bruce are ready to hit arbitration. Interesting names on the market include Brad Penny, AJ Burnett, and Derek Lowe. Speaking of Bruce, I would sign him to an Evan Longoria type deal this offseason. Give him something like 7 years, $30-$35 MM. It's hard for a 21-year old to pass up that type of security, and if Bruce hits his floor, which is as an Austin Kearns-type RF, it's not the end of the world. However if Bruce is half the player most of us expect him to be, it will be a coup for the Reds. I would also give Edwin Encarnacion one year from now to prove what he's going to be. At next year's ASBreak, it will be time for the Reds to make a final decision on him. He will be entering arbitration, and guys like Frazier and Francisco will (hopefully) be just about major league ready.

If the Reds approach the above moves as I have suggested (and don't believe they are unrealistic), I think they will inject a tremendous amount of talent into the organization at positions of need, without disrupting the core and losing sight of the near future. Thoughts?

[lollipopcurve]

I would love to see a young rangy SS acquired to be the everyday SS and Keppinger kept around as a super utility guy.

Janish?

Valaika?

Or do you want a plus-defense plus-offense young SS ready to play in the majors next year? I don't think there's one out there that could be had.

In-house solutions are good enough, in my opinion, if not perfect.

[Kc61]

Focus on the needs. Position players -- the team needs a leadoff hitter, a power righty bat for cleanup (and to provide lefty/righty balance) and a catcher. There are other areas to upgrade (like shortstop), but these are the most immediate needs among the position slots.

These slots will not be filled by minor league kids unless the team waits two to three years. If they want to fill these spots promptly, Reds need to make trades and sign free agents.

Other than Votto, Bruce, and Phillips, I would trade any non-pitcher on the team to fill these three needs. Again, leadoff man, power righty hitter, catcher.

Pitching -- with Harang, Cueto, and Volquez the Reds have three good starters. Arroyo would be ok at four except he makes too much money. So they have to look to trade him. If they do, the Reds will have to come up with another starting pitcher from someplace. They don't have an obvious candidate in-house for that fourth spot. (Fifth starter can be handled in-house, Livingston, Thompson, Maloney, somebody).

With Burton, Cordero, Bray, and Roenicke the pen will have some hard throwers. Depth is needed, but not an area for major acquisitions. Bench -- do the best you can.

So, bottom line for 2009 -- Leadoff man, righty power bat, catcher and (if Arroyo goes) a fourth starter.

The other guys I'd try to keep are Hairston and Keppinger -- no big contracts but try to keep for 2009. Despite all the predictions that Hairston will fail, he is an ideal utility man, as is Keppinger, because of their versatility, they play hard, and in Hairston's case he may have learned how to be an effective contact hitter late in his career. I'm not counting on them as long-term guys, but they fill the inevitable gaps on the team because of their versatility.

The Reds are twelfth in the NL in runs and in ERA. Unless they make some major additions they will continue to do poorly. The areas of need are obvious. They will have to replace some current guys. Most of them are not untouchable and should not be.