OBM, outline
A.) looking, stats - saw that the Reds current team ERA is 4.44
B.) good enough for 11th in the NL - 23rd in baseball.
C.) look at the stats closer, you'll see
1.) two guys who are responsible for the team ERA being that low: Fogg and Belisle.
2.) Fogg has allowed 32 earned runs in 34.1 innings (8.39 ERA) and Belisle has allowed 24 earned runs in 29.2 innings (7.28 ERA).
D.) Todd Coffey and Homer Bailey have very high ERA's
1.)threw a combined 27.2 innings.
E.) Bronson Arroyo's 5.82 ERA doesn't help but you have to think he'll improve that and get back under 5.00. He hasn't pitched that bad.
F.) eliminate Belisle and Fogg from the equation,
1.) Reds team ERA drops
2.) down to a very respectable 4.15,
G.) good enough for 13th in the major leagues which is above average.
1.) Add - some improvements from Arroyo and Harang and it lowers more.
Conclusions:
I. Reds just need to find an upgrade in the fifth starter spot
II. find another bullpen arm or two
A. and they should have a strong pitching staff next season.
III. Daryl Thompson could be ready by next season to develop into a league average #5 starter
IV. Josh Roenicke should improve the bullpen with his powerful right arm.
VI. Find a solid lefty to replace Affeldt - this team could have one of the better pitching staffs in the league next season.