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Thread: Trade Deadline

  1. #1
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    Trade Deadline

    With the trade deadline rapidly approaching (only three and a half weeks away) the Reds are obviously poised to be sellers. What moves would you like to see Jocketty make leading up to his first deadline with the Reds? Be as specific (and realistic) as possible.

    Per another thread, here are my suggestions:

    1. Acquire a RH-power hitting OF

    There are two available options here: Matt Kemp and Jason Bay

    A.) Matt Kemp would be the most ideal considering his age and contract situation. Offer the Dodgers any kind of package that might include guys like Dunn, Stubbs, Francisco, Valaika, Arroyo, Hairston, and/or Keppinger for Matt Kemp. Obviously the package wouldn't include all of these guys, but see who they like, and if they're willing to bite. I would be willing to move any three guys off this list for Kemp. If they want four or five, then I'd ask them to include one of the prospects named below. I do know they are open to discussing Kemp, and they have had interest in Adam Dunn in the past. They also are currently shopping for a SS because Furcal can't stay healthy and most likely won't be re-signed. Additionally, if they take a liking to several guys mentioned above, the Dodgers have some interesting prospects that could be included in the deal like Andy LaRoche (3B) and Chin-Ling Hu (SS). While I really like what Hairston and Keppinger have done, I agree with REDREAD's sentiments and therefore would be willing to include one of them in the deal in order to get it done, and let the other one man SS for the time being. Kemp has superstar potential, and has shown he can hit in the majors at a young age. Additionally, he is right-handed and above-average defensively. An OF of Votto, Kemp, and Bruce for the next 5+ years has me salivating.

    B.) The Pirates have been trying to move Jason Bay, a notorious Reds killer, for some time. While I believe he is a FA after the 2009 season, I think he would be a great target for the Reds, and would go a long way towards replacing Dunn and Jr.'s production in the offense. Also like Kemp, Bay is above average defensively. However Pittsburgh would love to rid themselves of Bay's salary and get a nice young prospect in return. Meanwhile, Homer Bailey has been an enigma no one in Cincinnati can figure out. While as a general rule, I like hanging on to all top-notch pitching prospects, I truly believe that Homer may never see big league success in Cincinnati. He would be well served by a change of scenery. Offer Bailey to Pittsburgh for Bay, and I think you might well have a deal. If you can't acquire Kemp, (or maybe even if you can), having Bay in the OF would be the next best option. In this scenario, I would then let Dunn walk and take the comp. picks in order to help replenish the farm system. Bay would give you at least one year of Dunn-like offensive production with much better defense (and arguably a better approach/attitude.) Then you could look into re-signing him for much less than you'd ever have to pay Dunn.

    2. Upgrade the catching position

    Now this is an interesting task considering the fact that most teams are looking to do the very same thing. However, there is one team with an abundant surplus at the position, the Texas Rangers. With Gerald Laird and Jarrod Saltalamacchia manning the position at the major league level, the Rangers have two prospects in the high minors that are tearing the cover off the ball with no hope of ever catching for the big league club: Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. I would be on the phone with Jon Daniels yesterday figuring out what it would take to pry one of them loose. There has been much speculation on these boards as to what it would take, but logic says that pitching would be the name of the game. Homer Bailey might well be a name they'd be interested in, and the Reds might have to consider that given the reasoning listed above in the Bay proposal. I would start the bidding much lower, but would consider moving Bailey if that's what it took. Bailey for Nelson Cruz and Teagarden or Ramirez might be the winner. Now if Bailey has already gone to Pittsburgh in the Bay deal, I would see if the Rangers had interest in guys like Matt Maloney, Drew Stubbs (although probably not considering they have Hamilton) and Juan Francisco.

    3. Upgrade the SS position

    This is the least critical of the three mandatory moves as Keppinger and Hairston have been very serviceable at the position. However, their defense leaves something to be desired, and their respective track recoreds are not yet long enough to be relied upon for the long term. While I have been advocating moving Phillips to SS for a couple years now, I just don't believe that's really in the Reds' plans. I don't have as specific of targets picked out as with the other two options. As mentioned above, Hu of the Dodgers could be an interesting target. The Angels also have a couple of interesting names in Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood. With the injuries to Brad Penny and Kelvim Escobar, the two LA teams might have an interest in Bronson Arroyo. While I don't believe it is critical to shed Arroyo and his contract at this point because I do think he provides very good production for a #4 pitcher, it wouldn't be a bad thing to get out from under that deal, especially going forward. I would gauge their interest in Arroyo and take it from there, they may have to throw in a couple of sweeteners in order to get something done, as I don't think either of the three prospects projects to anything above average at this point. Another interesting name is Reid Brignac of the Devil Rays. With the drafting of Tim Beckham and the performance of the major league team, Brignac will most certainly be available. The Rays are in need of bullpen help at the major league level, and might be willing to divulge Brignac for the services of David Weathers and Florida-native Ken Griffey Jr. I would include $4 million in the deal if I'm the Reds to cover Jr.'s buyout, if in fact this could get the deal done.


    If the Reds approach the above moves as I have suggested (and don't believe they are unrealistic), I think they will inject a tremendous amount of talent into the organization at positions of need, without disrupting the core and losing sight of the near future. Thoughts?
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    I think you nailed it. These are the moves I would make. If we could get Bay or Kemp, I would be elated. The price might be high and a trade for Kemp might be easier though it might involve Adam Dunn. I'm not much for trading within division, so any deal with Pittsburgh might be dangerous.

    Catching is a problem and I don't know where to go with this one. All I know is the three we have are not adequate. You can live with a great defensive catcher if he doesn't hit. I've seen enough of Ross and Valentin to know they are not defensive champions and offensively they are challenged. Bako seems to be the best of the three, so I would move the other two and go after a good defensive catcher. For an offensively challenged club, that's not too smart, but it is what it is.

    Shortstop is not a concern for me right now. We can do that in the off season. No matter who plays there this year, it won't make the difference in whether we make the playoffs or not .
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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Taylor Teagarden would be a good target at catcher. If he could be had for Homer Bailey then I would do it. He's got Gold Glove talent behind the plate and has some power in his bat. Texas needs pitching and a change of scenery could do Homer some good.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Taylor Teagarden would be a good target at catcher. If he could be had for Homer Bailey then I would do it. He's got Gold Glove talent behind the plate and has some power in his bat. Texas needs pitching and a change of scenery could do Homer some good.
    Excellent proposal. Homer, IMHO, will never develop with the Reds. The fact that the Reds would never have to face him and he would be going home makes it a no brainer.
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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    I was just reading an article that says the Dodgers are looking at Jack Wilson to fill their current vacancy at SS and a Dodgers official says they may be willing to deal Matt Kemp as part of the deal. Jocketty needs to jump in on this and make an offer for Kemp. Hell, offer them Keppinger or Hairston and a couple prospects or Dunn + Hairston for Kemp.

    Here's the article btw...

    http://www.timesonline.com/articles/...e371480889.txt
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    I think LA is fine with what they have at short right now. Nomar is as good as Kepp or Hairston would be and Angel Berroa can come in late in the game like he did tonight. He can pick it for sure.

    I would love to see the Reds:

    trade for Teagarden, Bay, and another starter or two. Bay isn't going to be a Red because he has nowhere to play. Unless Dunn is traded first, Bay isn't coming to Cincinnati. It looks like Texas is going with Max Ramirez as their catcher of the future and I can see why.

    Honestly, and I have beaten this to death, I don't see the Reds doing much of anything. Has Jocketty made any trades that made his teams younger and unloaded salary? He is known for adding payroll in trades and signing free agents, something the Reds aren't going to do IMO. Thus, another reason why I can't see the hiring as a good one.

    If Harang is traded, the Reds will have set themselves back a couple years. You don't find many guys as good as Aaron Harang. Maybe you could trade him to New York for Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and get quantity over quality, but I'm not sure that would be a good trade for the Reds. I don't know what's wrong with Harang, but he is better than his 2008 season. Bronson Arroyo for either of the above mentioned Yankees would be fine with me.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Benihana that is pretty optimistic.

    The reds need an outfielder especially to replace the production of Dunn if he walks. I don't see Bay being moved except for a kings ransom. They have an entire year to trade Bay if they can't work out a long term deal. I don't see the Reds adding him right now. I like Kemp but again I think he will command too much. Trading Dunn + for Kemp is probably what it will take. They also could trade Dunn + for Kemp and Pierre to take the salary relief away from the dodgers. Again I don't think that is fair value.

    The Reds are in need of a catcher but how much better would that catcher be than Hannigan down in AAA? I don't see the Rangers trading Laird or Salty so you are going down a notch. What is it going to take to pry a catcher away during the trading period? Remember the Reds don't really have much star power to offer.

    The Reds are in need of a SS but what organization is going to give up a good SS prospect? If an org is going to give up the SS you probably will have to overpay to get that SS. The problem with the Reds is they have two guys they should be shopping in Dunn and Arroyo yet no one wants Dunn and Arroyo had been up and down this entire year.

  9. #8
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Using the Sabathia deal as a barometer I would say Dunn has very little trade value. For Sabathia, one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, the Indians got a top prospect at a less than premium defensive position and little else. At this point it is hard to see Dunn getting traded for fodder. The value of rent-a-players has decreased substantially in recent years since the Sox and Yanks have been staying out of that market.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Trade Deadline

    I don't think LA would be enthused about the names hypothetically offered for Kemp. They range from a rental to major league role players to low ceiling marginal prospects to a high reward/extremely high risk prospect.

    Similarly, the Pirates are getting a bargain with Bay and given Tampa has reportedly been interested in Bay but hasn't pulled the trigger, it's tempting to consider that Pittsburgh's new saber-savvy FO is playing for an exciting return.

    Concerning targeting catchers in the Rangers' organization, they've clearly adopted a philosophy of placing risk on position players rather than arms. The Reds probably don't have an arm attractive enough to make them reverse course in a deal where they'd be giving up a prized commodity like a catcher. Maloney etc wouldn't warrant a return phone call. Homer probably has a trade value something akin to Jeff Niemann (those that have to look him up, get the point already).

    I like the idea of targeting Hu as a shortstop but considering he may never be much offensively, it might be more feasible to stretch Phillips by signing a Hudson/Ellis and moving Brandon back to short. Phillips' defensive value would be diminished but it would be an improvement at short anyway while the defense at second would pretty much be static (or even improved with a Hudson). Hudson is going to be very expensive and take a lot of years (something I really don't advocate in principle) but Ellis will likely be undervalued.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I like the idea of targeting Hu as a shortstop but considering he may never be much offensively, it might be more feasible to stretch Phillips by signing a Hudson/Ellis and moving Brandon back to short. Phillips' defensive value would be diminished but it would be an improvement at short anyway while the defense at second would pretty much be static (or even improved with a Hudson). Hudson is going to be very expensive and take a lot of years (something I really don't advocate in principle) but Ellis will likely be undervalued.
    Ellis makes $5M this year, Hudson $6.25M. Both are having pretty good seasons so I wouldn't think those prices would drop in free agency.

    So my question is, in the Phillips to SS scenario would it make more sense to just stay in house and play Keppinger at second, and use the dollars somewhere else? I believe that Ellis would be an upgrade at second over Kepp but it might just be a marginal one. What kind of contract would you be looking to sign Ellis to?

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    Re: Trade Deadline

    I have to wonder why there isn't more interest in Adam Dunn, particularly for a run-starved team like the Dodgers? I'd be very disappointed if they end up sending Kemp to Pittsburgh.

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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    I have to wonder why there isn't more interest in Adam Dunn, particularly for a run-starved team like the Dodgers? I'd be very disappointed if they end up sending Kemp to Pittsburgh.
    if you look at where the current GM has thrown money in recent years it is pretty clear he has no idea how runs are created.
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  14. #13
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Similarly, the Pirates are getting a bargain with Bay and given Tampa has reportedly been interested in Bay but hasn't pulled the trigger, it's tempting to consider that Pittsburgh's new saber-savvy FO is playing for an exciting return.
    .
    I doubt the Pirates would listen to any Reds' offers for Bay that did not include Ceuto, Bruce or Volquez.

    They are at a similiar position to the Reds. They have a desire to try to collect future impact players that are cheap now.

    It makes little sense for Pittsburg to trade Bay for 4-5 mediocre players/prospects (Homer, etc). Sure, it may happen, but it makes little sense.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  15. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    I have to wonder why there isn't more interest in Adam Dunn, particularly for a run-starved team like the Dodgers? I'd be very disappointed if they end up sending Kemp to Pittsburgh.
    I maintain that it's a combo of two things, the first being obvious -- some GMs don't appreciate the value he provides.

    The second one is the one I think hurts his trade value the most: media/fan perception that he's an all-or-nothing slugger who is more of a luxury entertainer who puts on shows than that he's one of the top 20 run producers in baseball. For lack of a better phrase, his offensive production simply isn't taken seriously by the bulk of the public.

    Any GM acquiring Dunn at the cost the Reds are demanding is basically saying "batting average and strikeouts are terribly overrated". While GMs may truly believe that and think that Dunn would likely be a big boon to their offense, they might not want to use their political capital trying to convince their fan base of it. And further, there's risk with any trade having short term goals. If Dunn didn't live up to expectations, the negative impact on the GMs reputation could be double as it would reinforce the inevitable critiques.

    This is really the perfect storm for a guy like Ned Colletti. I think 29 other teams would LOVE to have Dunn. They just don't want to have to trade for him. In some ways it's like the Bonds situation. If he didn't come with that baggage, he would've been signed in a heartbeat. But baggage included, the math just doesn't work out.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Trade Deadline

    speaking of Bonds, I still can't believe he doesn't have a job. Tampa, Boston, Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis, LA & New York could all use his services. His being the best hitter in the game for several years has to account for something. I just can't see why a team would give up a whole lot for 1/2 a season of Dunn when Bonds is out there and you don't even have to give up players for him.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton


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