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Thread: Reds team ERA

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Reds team ERA

    I was just looking through some stats and saw that the Reds current team ERA is 4.44 which is good enough for 11th in the NL and 23rd in baseball. If you look at the stats closer then you'll see that it's really two guys who are responsible for the team ERA being that low: Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle. Fogg has allowed 32 earned runs in 34.1 innings (8.39 ERA) and Belisle has allowed 24 earned runs in 29.2 innings (7.28 ERA). Todd Coffey and Homer Bailey also have very high ERA's but you threw a combined 27.2 innings. Bronson Arroyo's 5.82 ERA doesn't help but you have to think he'll improve that and get back under 5.00. He hasn't pitched that bad. If you eliminate Belisle and Fogg from the equation then the Reds team ERA drops down to a very respectable 4.15, which would be good enough for 13th in the major leagues which is above average. Add in some improvements from Arroyo and Harang and it lowers more.

    The Reds just need to find an upgrade in the fifth starter spot and find another bullpen arm or two and they should have a strong pitching staff next season. Daryl Thompson could be ready by next season to develop into a league average #5 starter for now and Josh Roenicke should improve the bullpen with his powerful right arm. Find a solid lefty to replace Affeldt and I think this team could have one of the better pitching staffs in the league next season.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    If you eliminate Belisle and Fogg from the equation then the Reds team ERA drops down to a very respectable 4.15, which would be good enough for 13th in the major leagues which is above average.
    why do only the Reds get to drop two pitchers?

    as for the Reds' pitching, last year they had only one guy (Harang) that I'd have wanted to start in a playoff series; now they have a full set of three.

    also last year, there was only one pitcher in the 'pen with an ERA below 3, and he was a kid. Now there's three of 'em, including a lefty.

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    why do only the Reds get to drop two pitchers?
    The point is, by looking at the team ERA it may not look like the Reds pitching has improved but I think it has. The big reason the team ERA is so high is because the Reds have had two awful options in the fifth starter spot. Daryl Thompson isn't ready yet but he may be able to win the fifth starter spot out of ST and hopefully be an improvement over Belisle/Fogg. Homer Bailey could be another candidate if he gets his act together.

    As for the second lefty role, I would like to see Damaso Marte brought in on a one year deal if possible.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds team ERA

    I'm pretty sure that the common theme of the past few off-seasons was that the 5th starter wasn't that big of a deal and that most teams have 5th starters like Fogg and Belisle.

    That theory is a lot like BA/RISP...it doesn't seem like a big deal until you see the poor performance in action.

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    The point is, by looking at the team ERA it may not look like the Reds pitching has improved.
    we always think that-- we'll be better next year because we won't have Milton/Manzanillo/the Barber etc.

    but we replace those guys with others just as bad

    to me, the difference that I see are that there could be playoff-caliber pitchers on the roster now. I'm not a huge Cordero fan, but his innings are most welcome. still, I hope that one of the kid relievers becomes an always-count-on-me-in-a-playoff-game guy

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    we always think that-- we'll be better next year because we won't have Milton/Manzanillo/the Barber etc.

    but we replace those guys with others just as bad


    to me, the difference that I see are that there could be playoff-caliber pitchers on the roster now. I'm not a huge Cordero fan, but his innings are most welcome. still, I hope that one of the kid relievers becomes an always-count-on-me-in-a-playoff-game guy
    This is really it, isn't it? Every year we'd have a pretty good pitching staff if we just eliminated the bottom 10%. Unfortunately, we continue to run out pitching staffs with only 9 or 10 reliable arms.

    We simply haven't had the dominating arms on the other end to offset those guys killing us. It was always a league average staff killed by the anchor at the bottom. Hopefully, with Volquez and Cordero in particular, we've raised the core of the staff from average to good. Now we need to do good on eliminating that anchor.

    To me, part of that is not filling the bottom of the staff with guys who have a proven track record of being bottom of the staff type guys. That's what kills you in the present and prevents you from improving. I'll take my lumps with a 6.00 ERA from a guy who is likely to improve next year. But when you get those 6.00 ERA performances from guys with 4.75 ERA upside, it just kills you -- because it also prevents you from getting that young guy the experience he needs to become an asset.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-08-2008 at 01:07 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds team ERA

    A better defense would help.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
    -Air Supply

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Sorry, but this is a place where we need to evaluate performance much more rigorously in order to know what needs to be done and to assign responsibility--most of it going here to the former GM. Harang has been less effective than we hoped for and has not performed like a #1 starter; Arroyo is a major reason the team is where it is. He's been better lately but his 5.82 ERA is no accident. His falloff from previous years--however caused (and I'm among those who think it must somehow be related to heavy work load over the last two years)--is a major cause of the team's out of contention. The #5 starter spot has been totally inadequate. None of Wayne's plans to fill that spot have worked out. We need to stop believing Fogg and Arroyo are better than they are and to deal both as soon as possible, and then to begin looking to decide whether what we currently have will be able to fill the 4 and 5 spots next year (Thompson, Bailey, Maloney etc.). Or whether we need to acquire one or two pitchers.

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This is really it, isn't it? Every year we'd have a pretty good pitching staff if we just eliminated the bottom 10%.
    I disagree with that. In the past we've had a couple good starters in Arroyo and Harang and maybe one or two arms in the bullpen while the rest was total crap. This year we have four solid starters (Arroyo will bounce back IMO) and three or four good arms in the bullpen with more in the minors. This is the first time in years where I actually feel comfortable with the pitching staff going forward.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    I hope Arroyo has his bounce back with the Phillies, saving us 22 million over the next two years and bringing us a couple of prospects.

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Sorry, but this is a place where we need to evaluate performance much more rigorously in order to know what needs to be done and to assign responsibility--most of it going here to the former GM.
    I think that this is an odd post, since the pitching looks on its way to becoming playoff-caliber, especially if they can keep getting the farm to produce guys that are actually decent instead of what the Reds' farm has produced for 20 years.

    however, the offense/defense/manager/coaching/team chemistry/owner...

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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I hope Arroyo has his bounce back with the Phillies, saving us 22 million over the next two years and bringing us a couple of prospects.
    I have no problem with the Reds trading Arroyo for good prospects but I wouldn't just give him away as I still think he has some good pitching left in him. He's very valuable if he can return to his 200 innings of 4.00-4.50 ERA ball and I think he will.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  14. #13
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    Re: Reds team ERA

    OBM, outline
    A.) looking, stats - saw that the Reds current team ERA is 4.44

    B.) good enough for 11th in the NL - 23rd in baseball.

    C.) look at the stats closer, you'll see
    1.) two guys who are responsible for the team ERA being that low: Fogg and Belisle.
    2.) Fogg has allowed 32 earned runs in 34.1 innings (8.39 ERA) and Belisle has allowed 24 earned runs in 29.2 innings (7.28 ERA).

    D.) Todd Coffey and Homer Bailey have very high ERA's
    1.)threw a combined 27.2 innings.

    E.) Bronson Arroyo's 5.82 ERA doesn't help but you have to think he'll improve that and get back under 5.00. He hasn't pitched that bad.

    F.) eliminate Belisle and Fogg from the equation,
    1.) Reds team ERA drops
    2.) down to a very respectable 4.15,

    G.) good enough for 13th in the major leagues which is above average.
    1.) Add - some improvements from Arroyo and Harang and it lowers more.

    Conclusions:
    I. Reds just need to find an upgrade in the fifth starter spot

    II. find another bullpen arm or two
    A. and they should have a strong pitching staff next season.

    III. Daryl Thompson could be ready by next season to develop into a league average #5 starter

    IV. Josh Roenicke should improve the bullpen with his powerful right arm.

    VI. Find a solid lefty to replace Affeldt - this team could have one of the better pitching staffs in the league next season.
    When I see you post something,
    I like to think about what you've written, because when you tell us something, I find that you are usually telling us a lot of very good information, you’ve done that again here.

    I infer that you have told us that the Reds current staff is not as bad as one might think, that after a closer look at the stats, http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/...ype=2&type=reg the stats reveals that two pitchers who struggled earlier contributed to the high ERA, skewing the pitching stats, and maybe our perceptions of the current staff, when in fact the pitching stats and staff have not been that bad.
    Though you did not say this directly, I also take from your remarks and research that the second half of the season could be better for the Reds and their pitching staff, from what we witnessed in the pre-all-star part of the season.

    That next season, or maybe even this season, with the addition of another pitcher, that is well within the reach of the Reds accomplishing, either in Thompson or another starter, and with the addition of a successful Roenicke or two other relievers that can be obtained, the Reds can have a very good pitching staff or competitive pitching staff in the league next year.

    That is very good news, and I know what you have written is true from my own personal research and review. Again I also can’t help but be reminded from this that the Reds offense and defense have played a major role in making this season what it has been to date, especially when processing the information that you have given us here, of course I have noticed that you also have expressed your reservations about this offense. I can’t help be frustrated with that thought especially after reviewing your information here on the pitching, one can’t help but think, what if, there had been better performance and production from the Reds, not in all games, but in a reasonable amount, in more of those games lost.

    Those defensive errors http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/fielding?team=cin that occurred earlier in the season probably in some way played a part in increasing the statistical findings that you have aforementioned too.

    I believe that we are in for a treat after the all-star game with the Reds pitching and if the offense and defense improves, building well into next year as you have written to. It is well within reach of the Reds. I would be a strong advocate of the Reds continued building in the pitching department. As it is not just this year, next year, or the year after that is in consideration when making such comments, it is also with the thought that the competition is always out there looking for and working towards ways to improve themselves simultaneously with the Reds.

    Good information and insights OBM, as always, thanks.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 07-08-2008 at 01:51 PM.

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    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Reds team ERA

    There has been an evolution in the past 5 years. Previously they had a roster of #4 and #5 starters (really a lot of #7 and 8 to be honest), and desperately needed top of the rotation horses.

    Harang progressed up in #3, #2, #1 status in those three years, and Arroyo provided a #2, #3 piece of the puzzle....thus being able to broaden their search for quality #3 guys...and yet they still got #5's.

    They now have bona fide #1(despite poor results this year) in Harang, an incredible #2 in Volquez, and a #4, potentially #3 in Cueto. Life gets easy in the off season looking only for #4's and 5's. Hopefully they can reach with some of the Griffey savings and get a #2 quality.

    Bullpen, the difference between last year and this year is remarkable. We now hope they can get to the 8th with a lead, as opposed to the 7th and
    8th inning train wreck last year.

    Cordero may not be the right fit, but I could easily see him moved next year at the break.


    All in all, pitching has quickly become an area to be optimistic about, after years of desolation.

    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds team ERA

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    I think that this is an odd post, since the pitching looks on its way to becoming playoff-caliber, especially if they can keep getting the farm to produce guys that are actually decent instead of what the Reds' farm has produced for 20 years.

    however, the offense/defense/manager/coaching/team chemistry/owner...
    The farm hasn't really given me any reason to do cartwheels. They haven't produced anyone yet who has had sustained success on the ML level.


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