Stubbs to Chattanooga

[Oxilon]

With that in mind, what the REDS are hoping to develop out of Stubbs is a player that can reach base at a .350 clip. When that is combined with his ability to steal bases and his excellent defense in Centerfield, it doesn't matter what his slugging percentage is. It's not his job to score runs. His job will be to save runs from being scored and when on Offense, to get himself to secondbase via a single or walk + stolen base, or by a double, or by a triple.

It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?

[RedsManRick]

It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?

I would say that the job of every player on the offensive end is to create runs. In order to create runs, avoiding outs is priority #1. That said, there are many skills which can be used in scoring runs. A smart manager utilizes his players in such a way as to maximize the value of the things at which they excel and minimize the detriment of their weaknesses.

Stubbs' job, like Dunn's, is to create runs. Given the type of player he is, Stubb's will most likely produce runs most efficiently by leading off, just as Dunn would do it by batting somewhere 2-4.

[crazyredfan40]

It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?

Well obviously an OBP of .350 would mean he is doing a great job of not making an out...

Also a Drew Stubbs with bad defense isn't getting talked about...But his speed and defense, and his high OBP are getting him talked about...

Different guys have different roles on the team...IF you have a guy like Stubbs you need guys like Dunn, Bruce, Votto to bring them around the bases...

[mth123]

I think that there is a difference that can't be stated enough and it concerns how that OBP is obtained. In Stubbs case you have a kid with a good eye and the restraint not to swing when the young and many times wild pitchers at those low levels are throwing to him. As he moves up the ladder, the control is going to be better and that OBP will probably come down unless....

...he finds the piece of the puzzle that Dunn has in spades and that is the ability to punish the pitcher for coming right at him. Plate discipline is important of course, but overlooking the role that power and slugging ability has in sustaining a high OBP is a big mistake. Forcing pitchers to work carefully and nibble around the strike zone is what allows the plate discipline to come into play in the first place. IMO, Stubbs will need to develop some consistent slugging ability in order to maintain that high OBP as he moves up the ladder. Otherwise, pitchers will come right at him because they don't fear him and his plate discipline will largely be a skill that doesn't come into play much. Its not impossible as there are many guys who weren't known as big sluggers that had a high OBP, but most were known as good hitters who could hit for a high average and usually didn't have the contact issues that Stubbs has. If he's going to continue to be a high K, mediocre average hitter, he'll need some pop to keep up that OBP IMO. I think he "could" do it, but we haven't seen anything yet to make me think carrying that OBP up to higher levels is the given that many think it is.

[lollipopcurve]

In Stubbs case you have a kid with a good eye and the restraint not to swing when the young and many times wild pitchers at those low levels are throwing to him. As he moves up the ladder, the control is going to be better and that OBP will probably come down unless....

There's truth to this. But it's also true that lighting is better in major league parks and the strike zone is smaller. It's a hitters game these days.

[OnBaseMachine]

Chattanooga: Stubbs has noteworthy debut with Lookouts

By: David Paschall
(Contact)

As far as debuts go, Drew Stubbs assembled a pretty good one last Thursday night at AT&T Field.

In his first Double-A game and his first as a member of the Chattanooga Lookouts, the center fielder raced to the gap in left-center to rob Huntsville of an extra-base hit in the first inning. He singled in his first at-bat during the second inning and added three more hits for a 4-for-5 opening at the plate.

So what did he enjoy most?

“If you can make a play in the field to really help during a tough spot in an inning, making a catch like that can really take the wind out of the other team,” Stubbs said. “In that situation, the catch is better. Otherwise, you always like to get four hits in a game.”

While maintaining his .800 average may be a bit of a task, Stubbs is hoping there will be plenty of Lookouts games in which he can provide productivity with his bat and glove.

Stubbs was the first-round pick of the Cincinnati Reds two years ago out of the University of Texas and signed for $2 million. He hit .270 with 12 home runs and 43 RBIs last season at Single-A Dayton and was hitting .261 with five homers and 38 RBIs in 86 games at high Single-A Sarasota before his promotion last Wednesday.

Cincinnati farm director Terry Reynolds said the promotion of Stubbs was due partly to an injury to Aaron Herr at Triple-A, which sent Shaun Cumberland up from Chattanooga.

“Two things have to happen for a guy to get promoted — a guy has to perform, and there has to be an opportunity,” Reynolds said. “There is an opportunity now for Stubbs, and he’s played well enough to earn it. He’s a guy who’s going to eat up ground in the outfield. He has raw power, and he swung the bat exceptionally well the last month in Sarasota.

“Now that he’s there, he’s got to play well to stay there, but I think he’ll be an exciting guy for the fans there to watch.”

Stubbs began this season rated by Baseball America as the No. 5 prospect in Cincinnati’s organization and the No. 100 prospect overall. By coming to Chattanooga, he rejoined a slew of players he started the season with in the Florida State League, including infielders Chris Valaika, Michael DeJesus and Justin Turner and outfielder Sean Henry.

One factor that hindered Stubbs from arriving earlier was a disappointing late-spring stretch.

“It’s one of those things I guess everybody goes through, so you just try to limit your slumps to a minimal amount of games as possible,” Stubbs said. “It just kind of drug on and ended up being a bad month instead of a bad week. That’s the thing I continue to strive toward, limiting those bad times when you’re not feeling as good at the plate.”

The 23-year-old did not play last Friday or Saturday because of a strained wrist he suffered when his running catch took him up against the wall. He didn’t notice the injury until halfway through the game because of the adrenaline that was accompanying his debut.

Stubbs should return to the lineup tonight when the Lookouts resume play in Mobile, and manager Mike Goff can’t wait.

“We really haven’t had a true center fielder here the entire year,” Goff said. “A lot of guys have been playing center, but here is a guy who’s been playing center his whole life. The Shaun Cumberlands, B.J. Szymanskis and Cody Straits have all pretty much been corner guys who were playing center field because we had no true center fielder at that time. They did a good job, but seeing a guy like Stubbs go get that ball the other night was pretty impressive.

“That’s what you expect to see at this level and above playing center field.”

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2...okouts/?sports

[lollipopcurve]

“We really haven’t had a true center fielder here the entire year,” Goff said. “A lot of guys have been playing center, but here is a guy who’s been playing center his whole life. The Shaun Cumberlands, B.J. Szymanskis and Cody Straits have all pretty much been corner guys who were playing center field because we had no true center fielder at that time. They did a good job, but seeing a guy like Stubbs go get that ball the other night was pretty impressive.

“That’s what you expect to see at this level and above playing center field.”

With all the blather about Stubbs' offense, it's important to remember what he brings as an outstanding defensive CF. Interesting to see that Cumberland's (and Henry, apparently) more of a corner guy.

[ochre]

It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?

The concern isn't his OBP. The concern is whether, or not, that OBP projects as he advances due to pitchers figuring out he's not a threat to (damagingly) hit the ball. The markers for the damagingly component being BA and SLG.

[Highlifeman21]

Dunn is a "guess" hitter. In the minors it's a lot easier to "guess" what the pitch is going to be as there are fewer pitches to "guess" from. In the Majors, he's overmatched at "guessing" the pitch. That's why it's all or nothing for him all the time and why he's such a poor hitter with RISP.

When Dunn leaves the team will be better by subtraction.

Guess hitters are a dime a dozen.

This is Dunn's peak year at the age of 28 and now's the time to sell.

Management knows what they're doing. Dunn will be gone.

As far as Stubbs is concerned, his OPS is irrelevant. His job is to get to 2nd Base abd put himself in scoring position, so the only stats that matter are OBP, SB's, and Doubles. He plays A-level CF Defense. He's projecting to be a player that helps win games for the REDS at a level equal to that of Dunn. He will do it differently.

Ok, I'll bite.... how will the Reds be better when Dunn leaves the team?



As for Stubbs, he'll certainly help defensively (something the Reds deeply need), but offensively we'll be wishing for Corey Patterson.

[dougdirt]

As for Stubbs, he'll certainly help defensively (something the Reds deeply need), but offensively we'll be wishing for Corey Patterson.

I will bite and say, no way on earth will Stubbs be close to as bad as Corey Patterson. Patterson has a .562 OPS this year.... while playing in GABP.

[Highlifeman21]

I'm looking forward to the players that are lined up to replace Dunn. There's half a dozen already....and at 1/20th the cost.

Like it or not, the money should be spent intelligently.

So who are these 6 guys lined up to replace Dunn? And by replace Dunn, I mean equal his offensive production. I'm sure there's plenty of guys that can replace Dunn, but no one in the pipelines that will duplicate what he does with the stick.

[Highlifeman21]

Me, too. But at the time of the draft, I would've picked Stubbs, too.

What did you like about Stubbs at the time of the draft that edged him over Lincecum?

[dougdirt]

So who are these 6 guys lined up to replace Dunn? And by replace Dunn, I mean equal his offensive production. I'm sure there's plenty of guys that can replace Dunn, but no one in the pipelines that will duplicate what he does with the stick.

Not that they have to duplicate what he does with the stick because they will likely be a defensive upgrade and also about 13 million dollars cheaper which will allow the Reds to improve the club elsewhere. I would take my chances with Danny Dorn/RH platoon guy out there next year unless Dunn is willing to sign for 3 years.

[Highlifeman21]

I will bite and say, no way on earth will Stubbs be close to as bad as Corey Patterson. Patterson has a .562 OPS this year.... while playing in GABP.

I honestly believe Stubbs would be worse offensively than Patterson if he were on the Reds right now. Give Stubbs the 2+ more years he needs to develop, and he'll be better than Patterson offensively.

But right now? Him being challenged to make consistent contact, the only way he'd get on base is via the free pass. And given that Stubbs doesn't sport a high SLG, that only leads me to believe his OPS would be low low low. Like Patterson low.

[dougdirt]

I honestly believe Stubbs would be worse offensively than Patterson if he were on the Reds right now. Give Stubbs the 2+ more years he needs to develop, and he'll be better than Patterson offensively.

But right now? Him being challenged to make consistent contact, the only way he'd get on base is via the free pass. And given that Stubbs doesn't sport a high SLG, that only leads me to believe his OPS would be low low low. Like Patterson low.

While I don't think Stubbs would be worse than Patterson right now on the Reds, I don't think he would be too much better offensively, but still a little better. But Stubbs doesn't have to be in Cincinnati right now, and by the time he gets to Cincinnati (and he will get there) he will be a better offensive player than Patterson and I don't think it will be close (not that its hard to not be close to as bad as a .562 OPS). While Stubbs has his contact issue, I don't think he is a slap hitter and put in a ballpark like GABP I don't think he will have problems hitting for average to slightly above average power for a centerfielder.