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Thread: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

  1. #31
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    Who says they have to? At this point, they only have to keep pace with DET and NYY.
    Tampa?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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  3. #32
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    * Adam Dunn hasnít yet been made available, though most teams think he could be had for the right offer. The problem is that no one seems to agree on what the right offer is. One FOT tells me that the Reds want well more than the draft pick compensation, looking for a ďtop guy.Ē Dunn would be a great fit in Arizona, but no one seems to think thatís going to happen.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=935
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  4. #33
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    * Adam Dunn hasnít yet been made available
    ... this week should remedy that situation and the charade known as the 2008 Reds.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  5. #34
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Tampa?
    yes sort of forgot about them - good point. The original idea remains the same: at this time, OAK is not an elite team in the AL, and they may not necessarily need to be one to make the playoffs.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

  6. #35
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    yes sort of forgot about them - good point. The original idea remains the same: at this time, OAK is not an elite team in the AL, and they may not necessarily need to be one to make the playoffs.
    They will have to be in 2008 IMO.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  7. #36
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    If Oakland can stay afloat for two more weeks would they:
    1. Be interested in Dunn?
    2. What could the realistically offer for Dunn?
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  8. #37
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If the Reds are in the predicament that they are in because of payroll disparities, how can the fact that the Diamondbacks, As, Marlins, Rays, and Twins are playoff contenders be explained? All have payrolls that are smaller than the Reds (in some cases staggeringly so) while having teams within their divisions that have a payroll of at least $118M.
    There are exceptions to most any rule......one plan has always been to wait to be one of the few exceptions. Takes the patience of a rock in the garden and the wisdom of Solomon to not go crazy.

    Another good plan is to follow the Braves/Rays plan. Be the laughing stock of baseball for 10-15 years, build a farm system full of top draft choices and hope you don't stay the laughing stock of baseball (ala the Pirates and Brewers (bucket heads?)).

    Then there is the Twins, A's, Marlins and D'Backs plan which is something of a mix of other plans with some FO savvy thrown in.

    Oh, for the D'Backs, A's and Twins, you must also choose to be in a division with some other BIG market teams with really rotten owners/leadership.

    So, Reds fans, which should/have the Reds choose? Seems to me that they have clearly chosen the Pirates model......but maybe that is just me being pessimistic.
    Last edited by red-in-la; 07-09-2008 at 03:39 PM.
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  9. #38
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    So, Reds fans, which should/have the Reds choose? Seems to me that they have clearly chosen the Pirates model......but maybe that is just me being pessimistic.
    Unfortunately, if that is indeed the case, the Pirates have recently abandoned that model in favor of one more in tune with the way the teams that are bucking the "financial divide" seem to be going...

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    Another good plan is to follow the Braves/Rays plan. Be the laughing stock of baseball for 10-15 years, build a farm system full of top draft choices and hope you don't stay the laughing stock of baseball (ala the Pirates and Brewers (bucket heads?)).
    It's been popular so far this year to dismiss Tampa as a franchise that has collected high draft picks with their fingers crossed but a deeper inspection of their recent history suggests a much more elaborate plan/philosophy has guided them to their present situation.

    I do agree with the notion that "there are more ways than one to skin a cat". So accepting that and the ample examples of teams overcoming payroll disparity, should the Reds should get a flyer for their payroll?
    Last edited by jojo; 07-09-2008 at 05:17 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #39
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    Then there is the Twins, A's, Marlins and D'Backs plan which is something of a mix of other plans with some FO savvy thrown in.


  11. #40
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Frankly, I don't care which path the Reds take to success. The bottom line is that our financial situation does not preclude success (as evidenced many times over) and the Reds have not described nor demonstrated any approach which has worked for comparably funded teams.

    Put quite simply: It can be done, but the Reds aren't doing it.

    There is no path to success which includes botching 90% of your first round picks, developing just one impact (above average) player in the course of a decade, failing to capitalize on your best assets in the trade market, and overpaying mediocre players via extensions and free agent contracts.

    The Reds have done a few more things right in the last 2-3 years than they had in the prior 10, but it's hardly enough. The Reds need to accelerate their rate of organizational improvement or they will never catch up. Jocketty's actions in the next 8 months should tell us a whole bunch about where this organization is headed.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-09-2008 at 07:52 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #41
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Put quite simply: It can be done, but the Reds aren't doing it.
    Exactly, and for a very long time.

  13. #42
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    Another good plan is to follow the Braves/Rays plan. Be the laughing stock of baseball for 10-15 years, build a farm system full of top draft choices and hope you don't stay the laughing stock of baseball (ala the Pirates and Brewers (bucket heads?)).
    Teams like the Rays, Marlins, Pirates, As, Royal, Twins, Brewers, and Reds have no other choices (alternatives) other then to emphasize recruiting, scouting, and building through the farm systems. The don't have the financial resources to get into a "spending war" with organizations like NY, Boston, Chicago, who, when they want to fill a need can simply go out and acquire it. They can even take risks on contracts because of those financial resources available to them.

    IMO... the Reds, as far as yearly payroll (73 mil), are in the middle of the pack. They are not like the top tier organizations (100+ mil/yr) or the bottom feeders (30/40 mil/yr).

    Spending alone (high payroll) does not guarantee success. Take a good hard look at the current Seattle Mariners (115 mil) for example. Or the Baltimore Orioles. You have to be able to identify and spend the money wisely.

    But since the days of Branch Rickey, a team's success was rooted in the strength of their farm system. It always has been.

    And the current economic situation (disparity) that has evolved in MLB over the last 15 years validates that point even more IMO.

    The Reds, over the last decade or so, have struck out in both of those points..... bad spending and a bad farm system. That is a recipe for disaster.

    We spend (commit) huge amounts of our yearly payroll on a few players, and round out the rest of the roster, due to whats left within the payroll budget, with whatever we can scrounge up. Its why we are trying to make starters (everyday) players out of guys like a Freel, Hairston, and a host of other "rejects" from around baseball.

    The Oakland As have a comparable payroll to the Reds. Yet how are they able to consistently compete?

    An organizational structure/system that not only emphasizes developing young talent; but also has the people in place within that structure that KNOW how to do it.

    I think the Reds were starting to head in that direction in the last few years, as far as the farm system goes.

    But turning around a farm system is not something that is accomplished overnight. Especially when it's been pretty barren to begin with, with few bright spots (a Dunn here, a Bruce there).

    You have to get it to the stage where it's a consistent source. And not just a source of supply for your roster alone; but ALSO as a source of sund trading chips when needed.

    Again - the Reds don't have that.

    The Brewers just acquired (rented) Sabbathia, and gave up some prospects to do so. One was LaPorta. Now some my be on either side of this deal; but my point is this.....

    If your farm system is sound enough to begin with, then it can withstand or hold up from such a trade. Especially if that trade (rental) gets you into the post-season.
    Last edited by GAC; 07-09-2008 at 08:44 PM.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  14. #43
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    I agree with GAC 100%. You build your core through your farm system. Trade acquisitions and free agents are only added to fill in holes.

    One lesson Reds fans need to learn from the A's and Indians is that you shouldn't get too attached to any one player once they start getting expensive. Those organizations have learned that you HAVE to trade the McGuire's, the Zito's, the Thome's, and the Sabbathia's in order sustain success. You keep them until they are too expensive to keep, and then you trade them for prospects, and replace them in the lineup with prospects.

    Have the Reds developed such a pipeline yet? No. The recent drafts have been encouraging, but I'm not too confident about development. It would seem to me that rather than trying to extend Adam Dunn to an expensive contract, the organization would be better off bringing in some minor league (and major league) coaches who have a proven track record for developing talent. And that takes some major dollars. It does no good to draft well and sign top Latin America talent, if skills aren't polished into functioning tools.

    Take Homer Bailey, for example. IMO, Bailey has skills, but the development coaching has failed him. He has gotten by, and to some extent, succeeded, by sheer skill. But much of his inconsistency is due to poor coaching. While he may have had better coaching at lower levels of the minor leagues, he has had very poor coaching at AAA and at the ML level.

    I also believe we are seeing similar warning signs in Jay Bruce. No one expected Bruce to hit .400, but you would expect him to have a better OBP than he's had. The skills are there, but the lack of polish is being exploited by ML pitching. I fully expect at some point for Bruce to be sent back to AAA to "find his stroke." The one beef against Bruce in the minors has been his high K rates. His one weakness has been magnified by major league pitching. Where is the coaching that teaches him to make adjustments? That same coaching has not helped Adam Dunn, and I have no confidence it will help Jay Bruce.

    I see inconsistencies in Votto. Encarnacion, at times, appears that he has not progressed. Thank goodness for Mario Soto, or we may be looking at a Johnny Cueto meltdown as well.

    In order for the pipeline system to work like the A's and Indians, development must be drastically improved.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  15. #44
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty remains quiet about trade plans

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Teams like the Rays, Marlins, Pirates, As, Royal, Twins, Brewers, and Reds have no other choices (alternatives) other then to emphasize recruiting, scouting, and building through the farm systems. The don't have the financial resources to get into a "spending war" with organizations like NY, Boston, Chicago, who, when they want to fill a need can simply go out and acquire it. They can even take risks on contracts because of those financial resources available to them.
    The Reds have a long term project of ahead of them. If you think for a moment, they really haven't been sitting around the last seven to eight years, and they still have a long ways to go.


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