Did you really just say that Mes is not one of our top 20 prospects...Most would put him in the top 5 or at least top 10...Originally Posted by redsof72
Curious why you say that...And Lotzkar is 18 and putting up some really good K numbers...He has top 3 of the rotation stuff...
I am really taking a liking to Cozart as well...
Many players are rated highly based on reputation for a couple of years if they were first round draft picks. You could find a long list of first rounders who never got higher than the Double-A level but at one time in their career, they were rated as one of the top five prospects in their organization. I have not completely given up on Mesoraco, but if you discount reputation and go strictly on what you see on the field (taking age into consideration, of course), here is what you see. You see a player who is, painfully, the poorest defensive catcher in the Midwest League in terms of receiving pitches and throwing. You see a player who holds his own at the plate and will usually give you a pretty good at-bat, who is probably an average Midwest League hitter with the ability to get quite a bit better with experience. He is also known to be a high-character guy with a strong work ethic, and that is important because he has a lot of work to do. I rate him as the eighth best prospect on the Dayton team right now. Lotzkar is coming fast. You are right, at age 18, he has a huge upside if he puts it all together. Cozart is a big league defensive shortstop who will continue to advance if he continues to get better as a hitter. Cozart is the best defensive player in the league at any position.
Thanks for sharing your observations. Have you seen Ravin pitch? and what do you think of him?
Interesting. What do you see as Cozart's weaknesses as a hitter?Cozart is a big league defensive shortstop who will continue to advance if he continues to get better as a hitter. Cozart is the best defensive player in the league at any position.
Redsof72's post on Mesoraco's defense being the worst in the Midwest League interested/concerned me so I looked up some of the other catchers in the league. Just went down the list until I got bored to check on ages--and OPS's while I was at it. In each case this is the catcher with the most at-bats on the team (so I'm assuming this guy is the regular). Provides some interesting context for evaluating Mes's status/defense.
Beloit-Yersich, OPS .626, birthdate 10/07/86
Burlington-Eigsti .623, birthdate 8/24/85
Cedar Rapids-Pardo .623, birthdate 10/10/86
Dayton-Mes .674, birthdate 6/19/88
Ft. Wayne-Martinez .631, birthdate 4/3/85
Great Lakes-Jansen .704, birthdate 9/30/87
Kane County-Smith .781, birthdate 6/05/83.
Mesoraco is as much as 5 years younger than one catcher-Smith. Mostly two years younger than everybody else except Jansen and nearly a year younger than he is. If Mes is the worst catcher defensively in the league--which I have no way to judge, having not seen them--it may very well be because he is by far the least experienced. Just from this quick sampling, I'd say it's not too hard to say he's the only prospect among the MWL catchers. In general I think RZers need to remember this kid's being 20 is kind of a distortion--he is almost exactly one year removed from high school baseball, and in a northern state at that.
Ravin has a good arm but is very, very raw. He will generally pitch in the 90-91 range and hit 94 a few times a night. He has a good curve (not as good as Lotzkar's) but his command is very poor. His mechanics are extemely inconsistent. He has no business pitching in a full-season league at this point. He would be one to keep in the back of your mind but not to count on. Lotzkar is light years ahead of Ravin in just about every area.
I would rate the pitchers on that staff something like this as prospects: Stewart, Lotzkar, Horst, Jeffords, Klinker, Conatser, Ravin. Stewart was a great draft pick in the third round. Stuff wise, he might be the best in the league behind Jarrod Parker of South Bend, who was throwing 97 with a wicked curve in Dayton earlier this season.
Redsof72, I love reading your reports and opinions.
Another question for ya. What kind of stuff does Horst and Jeffords have? Do they throw pretty hard?
Mesoraco has the defensive tools to be a strong defensive catcher, he just needs to work on them still. His footwork behind the plate isn't the best, but he is athletic enough to learn to use them better. His arm is the best catching arm in the system, his problem though is getting to the point when he throws the ball. Jumping up to throw the ball, he is still a bit slow. He takes his time still, making sure he sets his feet perfectly to throw the ball, which turns his pop time into a decent time despite his great arm. If he were even average from receiving the ball to jumping up to throw the ball, his pop time would be outstanding. As it is now, his pop time is merely decent and its being carried by his strong arm.
As for his receiving skills, they are a tad below average. This is the first time he has likely seen a lot of these pitches at the speeds/movement he is seeing them. Its a lot to take on. I am not too worried about him right now as a player though given his position and age. I will begin to worry when he is 23 and still having defensive issues (if he is still having them). For now, I just want him catching as much as possible, seeing more pitches, getting more reps at everything and learning. He has the tools to make himself a well above average defender behind the plate. He just needs the experience to take the tools and mold them to skills. Catching is a completely different animal than every other position.
I do not disagree with you at all about Mesoraco's youth. He is not only a year out of high school, he is a year out of high school in a state where the level of competition was certainly not as strong as Florida, Texas, California, etc. So he certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully, he keeps improving and someday is a solid major league player.
That being said, he has thrown out, I believe, 5 out of 58 base stealers. The number of balls that clank off his glove is certainly down from where it was earlier, but still, he has a long, long way to go defensively. I am not even worried about his offense right now. I agree with you, be patient, and hopefully he improves.
As far as Cozart, no particular weaknesses as a hitter. He just needs to make solid contact on a more consistent basis. Those aluminum bat hits in college are broken bat rollers in the minors with a wooden bat. If he can keep improving as a hitter, he will be a special player. His batting average climbed from under .200 to around .255 but has stalled a little. I would like to see him get it up to around .280 by the end of the season.
DougDirt, I would respectfully disagree with you on some of those things, although I do agree that some of his throwing problems are related to his difficulties in catching the ball. Still, Bour has the strongest arm of the catchers on that club.
I can say I have only seen Bour twice this year, so maybe it just wasn't the best day for him when I saw him. From what I saw though he was a notch below Mesoraco when I saw him arm wise. Certainly a better receiving catcher right now though, but he also has a lot more experience than Mes does.
Horst is a lefty with an average fastball of 89-90 but he has a big league change-up and I think RH batters are hitting around .180 against him on the year because they can't touch his change-up. He is trying to develop a better breaking ball to use against left-handers and if he can do that, he will be a solid prospect. He has a great pitchers' body and if he can add another mile or two to his fastball, it makes the outstanding change look even better.
Jeffords throws a little harder and has an above average fastball. He needed to improve his breaking ball and has. His slider looks like it might be a very good pitch. Both of these guys are developing and will have some excellent outings and then mix in a rough one.
All this and no talk about Soto, who hit .400 in his first week with the team and rocketed one ball after another all over the yard. This is a player that Reds fans should really, really be excited about. What are they going to do when Waring comes back in a few days? My guess is Parker goes to Sarasota and one of the two third basemen moves to first. Or you could play Soto in left field. I am just hoping they don't send Soto back to Billings, which Terry Reynolds said was a possibility. That would be a tough one to swallow.
I think you are right redsof72. My guess is Parker goes to Sarasota, Waring heads to first for most of his time (with a start at 3B every now and again while Soto will DH) and Soto stays at 3B. I just can't forsee Soto heading back to Billings after showing what he has in Dayton.
I don't think they will send Soto back to Billings...that would be an awful decision. Soto looks like he has the ability to develop into an "A" class prospect. I'd like to see him stick at 3B but his bat is good enough to play anywhere. He's already got big time power despite having a long, wiry frame that will allow him to add 20-25 pounds and add more power. He broke all of Juan Gonzalez's homerun records in Puerto Rico so that gives you an idea of how much power he's got. Another thing I've noticed is he doesn't strikeout a whole lot as he's only got 13 strikeouts in 97 atbats. I think he's got the makings of a being a special player.
Agreed. If Mesoraco can stay at Dayton and take his lumps, there's no reason Soto shouldn't. He may be a special bat -- certainly the best high school RH bat to come into the organization since Kearns.I am just hoping they don't send Soto back to Billings, which Terry Reynolds said was a possibility. That would be a tough one to swallow.
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