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Thread: Moves I'd make right now

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    Moves I'd make right now

    If I'm Walt, here's what I'm doing over the next three weeks:

    While I would love to get Matt Kemp (I would offer Dunn and Keppinger,) I'm beginning to think it's not likely he'll be moved- or, at least that the Reds don't have what it will take to pry him loose. Thus, I'd turn my attention to Jason Bay, who the Pirates are definitely trying to move. Published reports over the last two days have said that they're asking for Emilio Bonifaciio from the D'backs and Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals. So I would offer either of the following two packages: Homer Bailey and Jeff Keppinger; or Chris Valaika, Drew Stubbs and Matt Maloney. Either package would give them the 2B they are looking for in addition to a strong additional prospect. Bay is signed for next year at a reasonable rate and would provide a RH-bat and upgrade defensively over Dunn. If they take the first package (Bailey and Keppinger), I would immediately promote Maloney to take Bailey's place in the rotation and let Hairston be the everyday SS for the remainder of the season, with Janish as the backup. Valaika seems poised to take over SS in Cincinnati at this time next year. If they take the second package, the Reds have added a critical piece to the major league team without disrupting any of the organizational core. While the second package may seem weak to some, Valaika is better than Bonifacio IMO and Stubbs would give them the CF they appear to be looking for in Rasmus (obv a lesser prospect, but the Bucs have been reportedly just asking for Bonifacio.)

    Second, I would shop Bronson Arroyo around the league, but only move him if we get a favorable return back that would hopefully include a young SS, CF or C of the future. Possible targets include Taylor Teagarden from Texas, Justin Masterson (and/or Jed Lowrie) from Boston, and Austin Jackson from the Yankees. Lou Marson from Philly would be nice, but apparently he might not be moved. If Arroyo is traded, I would make an offseason play for Derek Lowe, offering him something in the neighborhood of a two year, $24 MM deal. That way, the $$ comes off the books by the time all the rookies are eligible for arbitration. If you don't get any favorable offers, I would hang onto him as my #4 pitcher going forward.

    Assuming there aren't many good trade offers out there, I would hang onto Dunn and offer him arb at the end of the year, hoping he declines so we can take the picks.

    I would trade Jr. asap for any return in talent or players that exceeds $4 MM. Maybe the Rays would give up Reid Brignac for him?

    I would trade David Ross immediately (most likely to Florida), taking advantage of his recent hitting surge. Any positive return would be a nice bonus- trades like these were Krivsky's specialty, he had a way of extracting nice talent for marginal players.

    Ditto for David Weathers- trade him immediately (for any return) and DFA Gary Majewski (who is one of the worst pitchers I've ever seen in Cincy.) Bring up Belisle and Roenicke to take their place, and your team is instantly better IMO.

    Speaking of Roenicke, once he is promoted I would send Manuel to Louisville to close games there, and bump LeCure and Jukich to the AAA rotation. I would also DFA Corey Patterson, bring up Chris Dickerson, and promote Henry and Dorn to join Cumberland in the Louisville OF. I would also have Stewart finish the year in Sarasota, and begin 2009 in Chattanooga. Finally, I would offer Jay Bruce a 7 year, $30-35 million deal. Lock him up now, and you're really not risking a lot even if he achieves his worst-case scenario.

    Thoughts?
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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    If I'm Walt, here's what I'm doing over the next three weeks:

    While I would love to get Matt Kemp (I would offer Dunn and Keppinger,) I'm beginning to think it's not likely he'll be moved- or, at least that the Reds don't have what it will take to pry him loose. Thus, I'd turn my attention to Jason Bay, who the Pirates are definitely trying to move. Published reports over the last two days have said that they're asking for Emilio Bonifaciio from the D'backs and Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals. So I would offer either of the following two packages: Homer Bailey and Jeff Keppinger; or Chris Valaika, Drew Stubbs and Matt Maloney. Either package would give them the 2B they are looking for in addition to a strong additional prospect. Bay is signed for next year at a reasonable rate and would provide a RH-bat and upgrade defensively over Dunn. If they take the first package (Bailey and Keppinger), I would immediately promote Maloney to take Bailey's place in the rotation and let Hairston be the everyday SS for the remainder of the season, with Janish as the backup. Valaika seems poised to take over SS in Cincinnati at this time next year. If they take the second package, the Reds have added a critical piece to the major league team without disrupting any of the organizational core. While the second package may seem weak to some, Valaika is better than Bonifacio IMO and Stubbs would give them the CF they appear to be looking for in Rasmus (obv a lesser prospect, but the Bucs have been reportedly just asking for Bonifacio.)

    Second, I would shop Bronson Arroyo around the league, but only move him if we get a favorable return back that would hopefully include a young SS, CF or C of the future. Possible targets include Taylor Teagarden from Texas, Justin Masterson (and/or Jed Lowrie) from Boston, and Austin Jackson from the Yankees. Lou Marson from Philly would be nice, but apparently he might not be moved. If Arroyo is traded, I would make an offseason play for Derek Lowe, offering him something in the neighborhood of a two year, $24 MM deal. That way, the $$ comes off the books by the time all the rookies are eligible for arbitration. If you don't get any favorable offers, I would hang onto him as my #4 pitcher going forward.

    Assuming there aren't many good trade offers out there, I would hang onto Dunn and offer him arb at the end of the year, hoping he declines so we can take the picks.

    I would trade Jr. asap for any return in talent or players that exceeds $4 MM. Maybe the Rays would give up Reid Brignac for him?

    I would trade David Ross immediately (most likely to Florida), taking advantage of his recent hitting surge. Any positive return would be a nice bonus- trades like these were Krivsky's specialty, he had a way of extracting nice talent for marginal players.

    Ditto for David Weathers- trade him immediately (for any return) and DFA Gary Majewski (who is one of the worst pitchers I've ever seen in Cincy.) Bring up Belisle and Roenicke to take their place, and your team is instantly better IMO.

    Speaking of Roenicke, once he is promoted I would send Manuel to Louisville to close games there, and bump LeCure and Jukich to the AAA rotation. I would also DFA Corey Patterson, bring up Chris Dickerson, and promote Henry and Dorn to join Cumberland in the Louisville OF. I would also have Stewart finish the year in Sarasota, and begin 2009 in Chattanooga. Finally, I would offer Jay Bruce a 7 year, $30-35 million deal. Lock him up now, and you're really not risking a lot even if he achieves his worst-case scenario.

    Thoughts?

    First, I don't think Valaika is anywhere close to be a major league SS. Scouts say his future is not at short. 2nd, he's only in AA right now. I would have to see some sustained success in AAA before he gets to the major league level.

    I disagree about locking Bruce up now. What's the hurry? He's not arbitration eligible til after 2010 (right?). Let's keep him cheap while we can.

    In regards to Bay, I don't think he's a solution to our problems unless we can sign him for longer than just next year. It's not like next year is "our year." I would love to have Bay though.

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    First, I don't think Valaika is anywhere close to be a major league SS. Scouts say his future is not at short. 2nd, he's only in AA right now. I would have to see some sustained success in AAA before he gets to the major league level.

    I disagree about locking Bruce up now. What's the hurry? He's not arbitration eligible til after 2010 (right?). Let's keep him cheap while we can.

    In regards to Bay, I don't think he's a solution to our problems unless we can sign him for longer than just next year. It's not like next year is "our year." I would love to have Bay though.
    1. I never said Valaika was "close." I said that I think he could be ready for the majors by this time next year, which I think is perfectly reasonable. He's doing very well in AA, and provided he has a good first half in Louisville, he could and should be ready for the bigs by this time next year. And while his future position has been debated heavily, there are certainly a fair share of scouts (including ones that work for the Reds) that believe he will stick at SS.

    2. You obviously don't understand anything about locking in fixed costs. Even if Bruce has similar production to Adam Dunn a few years from now (which I think people expect more than that) the Reds will save millions from a move like this. As far as his recent slump goes, I have two words: Buy low.

    3. With Dunn, Jr., and possibly Arroyo off the books, who says the Reds can't sign Bay beyond next year? In the meantime, it buys us another year to evaluate Bruce, Frazier, Alonso, Votto and Encarnacion to see how the future stacks up and if one of those guys will be ready to step in and play LF (or RF.)
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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Arroyo for Teagarden is not a sound trade. I know the Reds need catching, but if they're going to trade pitching for it, I would hope they could at least get a catcher that projects a bit better. Teagarden's stick projects to be average to below average in the bigs.
    Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 07-12-2008 at 06:54 PM.

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I disagree about locking Bruce up now. What's the hurry? He's not arbitration eligible til after 2010 (right?). Let's keep him cheap while we can.
    I agree. I think by avoiding Super Two status he is not eligible for arbitration until after 2011, but somebody else correct me if I'm wrong...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    I agree with you about locking up Bruce long term, I think that you are right about on the terms too. Look at when Cleveland locked up Sizemore, he got 6 yr/ $23.45 mil with a club option to make it 7 yr/ $31.45. Sizemore signed that after his first year in the bigs, so I don't think that 7/$35 mil would be out of the question. That would be a tough deal for Bruce to turn down.
    Tulowitski and Braun's contracts are similar situations as well
    Last edited by MasonBuzz3; 07-12-2008 at 05:27 PM.

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by MasonBuzz3 View Post
    I agree with you about locking up Bruce long term, I think that you are right about on the terms too. Look at when Cleveland locked up Sizemore, he got 6 yr/ $23.45 mil with a club option to make it 7 yr/ $31.45. Sizemore signed that after his first year in the bigs, so I don't think that 7/$35 mil would be out of the question. That would be a tough deal for Bruce to turn down.
    Tulowitski and Braun's contracts are similar situations as well
    Cleveland's who I thought of right away. They did this quite a lot when they were first up and coming back in the 90's.
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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Thus, I'd turn my attention to Jason Bay, who the Pirates are definitely trying to move. Published reports over the last two days have said that they're asking for Emilio Bonifaciio from the D'backs and Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals.
    Here's a game....What is not like the other? If the Pirates would trade an economical season and a half of Bay for a future utility player who runs really fast, then the Reds might be able to at least get them to answer the phone. That said, there is a big difference between what some dream Bonifacio might become and a guy like Keppinger. I don't think the Reds can entice the pirates with any second base options IMHO.

    On the other hand, if the Rasmus request is accurate, the Reds don't really have a compelling offer to pique the Pirates' interest.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's a game....What is not like the other? If the Pirates would trade an economical season and a half of Bay for a future utility player who runs really fast, then the Reds might be able to at least get them to answer the phone. That said, there is a big difference between what some dream Bonifacio might become and a guy like Keppinger. I don't think the Reds can entice the pirates with any second base options IMHO.

    On the other hand, if the Rasmus request is accurate, the Reds don't really have a compelling offer to pique the Pirates' interest.
    Here's a game...Read the press. You don't have to believe everything you read, but before issuing a cynical response, know what information is out there.

    "The Pirates are believed to be seeking Arizona's top prospect Emilio Bonifacio, a second baseman, in a package. The Diamondbacks are reluctant to deal Bonifacio since Orlando Hudson may leave as a free agent after the year. "

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Here's a game...Read the press. You don't have to believe everything you read, but before issuing a cynical response, know what information is out there.

    "The Pirates are believed to be seeking Arizona's top prospect Emilio Bonifacio, a second baseman, in a package. The Diamondbacks are reluctant to deal Bonifacio since Orlando Hudson may leave as a free agent after the year. "

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...l?eref=writers
    I think my post pretty clearly entertained that both scenarios may be accurate. There was nothing cynical intended about it either-I was commenting on the apparent extremes represented by Bonifacio/Rasmus and what that might mean for Cincy.

    We just seem to disagree on the notion that Cincy would be an easy fit for a Bay trade as defined by the parameters of the two stories your original post cited (I don't think it would).

    There's no harm in that I hope.....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Man Jojo your taking a beating around here lately!

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Man Jojo your taking a beating around here lately!
    Maybe I shouldn't lead with my head?

    (For what it's worth, I don't think my posts come across nearly as snarky when read in the archives as many seem to take them initially)
    Last edited by jojo; 07-12-2008 at 10:32 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Maybe I shouldn't lead with my head?

    (For what it's worth, I don't think my posts come across nearly as snarky when read in the archives as many seem to take them initially)
    I mean this with nothing but constructive criticism: I don't think you've ever once admitted that you were wrong or even near-wrong about anything (and you have been, quite often).

    Some humility goes a long, long way.

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I mean this with nothing but constructive criticism: I don't think you've ever once admitted that you were wrong or even near-wrong about anything (and you have been, quite often).

    Some humility goes a long, long way.
    I'm proud of my posting history.

    But thanks for the advice and I'll watch you more closely and follow your lead.....

    I'm even willing to entertain your PMs on the subject.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Moves I'd make right now

    If the Reds were to re-sign Dunn and Hairston and find a decent catcher somewhere, would you be OK with the following lineup next year (In some form or another)?

    CF Hairston
    SS Keppinger
    LF Dunn
    2B Phillips
    RF Bruce
    3B Encarnacion
    1B Votto
    C ?????


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