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Thread: Jerry Hairston Jr.

  1. #121
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    1. Just because there is more money involved, doesn't mean the risk is higher.
    Speaking in a strict financial sense, yes it does. Keep in mind, too, that Dunn has had knee surgery and is carrying 270 pounds around the outfield on a daily basis.

    At 2 years $7M ($3.5/yr) you give the nod to Hairston ... your expecting Dunn to command $35M a year then?
    No -- the total outlay to sign Dunn may be about 10X (5 years at 15 per, perhaps) the total outlay to sign Hairston (2 years at 3.5 per).
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #122
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    How much stock to you put in his injury? From all reports Hariston had a cracked rib in his back that he thought was back pain for a couple of years. Whose to say that Hariston had improved as a ball player but the back pain prohibited him from performing at the level he could.

    Look at his atbats. He is not overmatched at the plate and isn't getting lucky. He is putting up good at bats and hitting the ball well. If that disappears in the second half then thank him for his services but if that doesn't then a 2 year deal similar to what Freel got isn't that bad of a thing.
    Maybe it's semantics. You're right, he's not getting "lucky" per se'. He's legitimately hitting all of those line drives.

    However, the issue is that he's hitting the at a rate which is 100% unsustainable. He's not Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, or Ted Williams -- and even they couldn't hit line drives that often. Among players with 200 PA, Hairston is a full 2.5% above the next highest guy, Jamey Carroll. In 2007, the major league leader was Michael Young, at 27.2%, who at 25.2% is among the greatest LD hitters in the game today. The fact that Hairston doesn't show the secondary skills (isolated discipline and power), which tend to correlate to this sort of success, is icing on the cake.

    Simply put, Hairston is not going to keep hitting line drives 30% of the time. And when he regresses back to something around his career average, 22.9%, his AVG, OBP, and SLG will all fall precipitously.

    Don't get me wrong. I like Hairston and would prefer to have him around rather than Freel. But he's not a .900 OPS guy. He's not likely an .800 OPS guy beyond this season and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he drops below .800 yet this year. He's your standard utility guy who does nothing particularly great but can play smart baseball, play good enough defense at a few positions, and fill a bench role on a good team. I know he's been hot so far this year, but there are lots of Hairston-esque players out there and you don't have to pay them multiple millions and commit to multiple years to get them.

    Paying him say $3.5M (or $2.5M) this year for this year's .800+ OPS would be fine. But he's already giving us that production for less. There's no reason to pay him $3.5M in 2009 and 2010 for the likely .730 he'll put up merely because we happened to get a good deal in 2008.

    The logic which suggests Hairston should be extended is precisely the sort of logic that justified the Rheal Cormier extension. Take your good fortune and cash in. Don't double down on bad odds.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-15-2008 at 01:22 PM.
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  4. #123
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The logic which suggests Hairston should be extended is precisely the sort of logic that justified the Rheal Cormier extension. Take your good fortune and cash in. Don't double down on bad odds.
    Bingo.

  5. #124
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    As I noted, teams like the Reds have to take risks on all kinds of players.
    No they don't. In fact, this organization needs to minimize those risks. Bad contracts add up for a mid-tier payroll team. When they spend, they need to spend wisely.

    IMO, in recent history, this organization has been foolish, and somewhat rash, in handing out unnecessary (and ill-advised) contracts (or extensions) on average-to-marginal players who somehow "momentarily shined" when their career numbers dictated otherwise.

    I'm sure others can add to the list; but three come to mind right off the top of my head....

    Bronson Arroyo
    Ryan Freel
    David Ross

    And I'll even add a 4th because I know some would want him included....Gonzo

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So long as he holds up physically this year, you won't get him unless you go multiple years. The issue with Hairston is his durability. You have to keep him rested.
    The that alone shows he isn't worth a multiple year contract.
    Last edited by GAC; 07-15-2008 at 09:00 PM.
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  6. #125
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    No they don't. In fact, this organization needs to minimize those risks. Bad contracts add up for a mid-tier payroll team. When they spend, they need to spend wisely.

    IMO, in recent history, this organization has been foolish, and somewhat rash, in handing out unnecessary (and ill-advised) contracts (or extensions) on average-to-marginal players who somehow "momentarily shined" when their career numbers dictated otherwise.
    I'm sure others can add to the list; but three come to mind right off the top of my head....

    Bronson Arroyo
    Ryan Freel
    David Ross

    And I'll even add a 4th because I know some would want him included....Gonzo



    The that alone shows he isn't worth a multiple year contract.
    Plus it seems that the Reds have had nothing but bad luck with the long term contracts (over a year), too many injuries on top of what you are speaking to. Hariston has a history of injuries, according to his comments, "first year I have been injury free" I read he was quoted, and guess what, he is injured again this year.

  7. #126
    Member Reds Fanatic's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Nothing has officially been announed yet but this from Trent sounds like Cabrera could be taking Hairston's place if he is put on the DL.

    Post All-Star Break means infield practice. I do love me some infield practice. No sign of Jerry Hairston Jr., but Jolbert Cabrera is out there, so expect Hairston to go to the DL and Cabrera to take his spot.

  8. #127
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Jerry Hairston Jr.

    when Gonzo went down I really really really wanted Janish to play SS.
    JHJ was hitting somewhere around the Mendoza line.
    I admit it. I was wrong. Dusty is da man!

    What a difference a week or so makes. JHJ looks like the player he was (when healthy) last year. His offense from the #2 hole lets Rosales hit 8th. His defense at SS has been questioned in the past. I believe he is a natural second baseman. However he has looked very good at SS. He may not have a rocket arm but his range seems good & he makes a lot of athletic plays.

    How about this:

    Gonzo rides the pine. Hairston plays SS with Janish getting some starts here.

    Get Gomes up here from AAA to play LF vs RHP.
    .

  9. #128
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    If Gonzalez is ready to play, my guess is Hairston will play some third base and some left field.

    But Gonzalez needs to hit some more, or Hairston will be back at shortstop.

  10. #129
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Hairston is going to get his. LF, 3B, an occasional SS start, 2B. Bruce is due a day off, as is Taveras. Hairston, IMO, will get both of those.

    Dusty will find a way to keep him in games.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  11. #130
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Hairston is going to get his. LF, 3B, an occasional SS start, 2B. Bruce is due a day off, as is Taveras. Hairston, IMO, will get both of those.

    Dusty will find a way to keep him in games.
    Hairston, like Freel, is a very useful player in spot starts at multiple positions and coming off the bench. That's a valuable commodity for a team. I'm not sure he can take the rigors of starting everyday at one spot.
    "The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson

  12. #131
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Agreed. He's Ryan Freel with a bit more pop and a bit less recklessness. (Okay, a lot less recklessness.) When Hairston's hot, the whole team is tough to beat.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  13. #132
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Agreed. He's Ryan Freel with a bit more pop and a bit less recklessness. (Okay, a lot less recklessness.) When Hairston's hot, the whole team is tough to beat.
    To clarify, I wasn't comparing him to Freel as a player ... but in his role. The good thing about Hairston is that he can play SS and CF which makes him a valuable backup.

    If the Reds brought up Gomes for McDonald, it would really strengthen the bench.
    "The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson

  14. #133
    Reds Slacker '07 RedsMan3203's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Nix hasn't been "tearing" it up at the plate either... Even thou he is hitting around .300 for the month ... Nix would be easier to sit right now for Hairston to start in his place, but i'd almost rather have him playing 3rd once Gonzo comes back.
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