Even without '06 and '07, he's still generously a mediocre ballplayer. Good bench fodder and great to have around when he goes all career-year on you (like he's doing right now).Originally Posted by Wheelhouse
Let someone else overpay to see him regress back to a ~.260 hitter with a ~.700 OPS.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
He has the years of service to be arb eligible. And looking at the career year he is having that could be a decent raise for a guy who has been below average a vast majority of his career.
SELL HIGH!
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Reds would be nuts to trade Hairston now. It would be like saying to the fans, we're playing pretty well now but we've decided this season is meaningless so we're punting to the future. That's not the way to be a competitive franchise and it won't happen.
There are late blooming players throughout sports. Guys who figure things out later in their careers. As Hairston's OBP approaches .400, it's hard to consider him a fluke. He's a talented player who hits to all fields, doesn't overswing, makes contact, and plays hard.
This is a bandwagon I can't quite get on. Don't get me wrong--I've loved watching him play, and he's played much better than almost all of the Reds players. I just think his regression will be severe and come soon.
He's someone I'd love to have on my bench. He has speed, consistently makes contact, and can play all the 3-9 positions. He's the perfect small ball player.
However, his 2008 OPS is about .200 higher than his career norms. As much as I like the guy, over the course of an entire season, he's not going to OPS just a few points less than Josh Hamilton (which he's currently doing). He's 32 years old and plays aggressively, and on top of that, he's been known to use HGH. I really have my doubts about his ability to maintain his health.
With possibly Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. being gone next year, I'd be looking to add power to the 25-man roster. The Reds already have Jeff Keppinger; plus Alex Gonzalez will come back next year. If needed, they also have Paul Janish, and who knows--maybe Brandon Phillips can switch to shortstop.
Hairston has been nothing short of great, but I'd feel more comfortable with Ryan Freel having his role over a longer period of time. Freel has more patience at the plate, more speed, and more power. Defensively, I even prefer Freel (except at second base, but with Phillips on the squad, that's not very important).
EXCELLENT?
First off.... you mention a very viable point about Hairston.... injury. The guy spends a lot of time on the DL. He has already had one stint with the Reds this year. He has a chronic bad back.
But lets look at his numbers pre-2005/2006 (when he was hurt). He was in his prime age (23-29) from '99 thru 2005. and here are his numbers...
.265 BA .339 OB% .377 SLG% .716 OPS
He has been "experimented" with batting lead off, beginning in 2001. But he has shown very inconsistent production there. Here are his overall lead off numbers from 2001-2005...
.251 BA .334 OB% .376 SLG% .690 OPS
As I mentioned on the other Hairston thread, and as MWM mentioned on this one, a player doesn't hit his prime/stride at age 32.
I would love to have this guy on my bench as a super-sub. But only at a very modest salary.
We do not need two Ryan Freel-type contracts on this team.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
I really hope the Reds' FO doesn't read what you post, b/c we'll have another Freel on our hands if we sign Hairston to a LTC as you suggest.
Aging player with declining skills having a career year? Check
Reward him for the career year when he's 32, and have him locked up until he's 35 just sounds all kinda bad, IMO.
But on the other hand, when we get rid of Dunn to make you happy, we'll need someone to replace Dunn's massive offensive production, and who better to fill that void than Hairston, right?
The Reds need to stop giving too much money to marginal guys for extended periods of time. I'd hope they learned from Freel's current contract, but if they give Hairston big money for a long time, then of course they'll have learned nothing.
Bruce needs a mentor/influence like Hairston like a recovering alcoholic needs a case of beer...
Hairston is a better, yet older version of Freel, but that doesn't mean we need to fall in love with him and build the team around him. He's a role/complimentary player, that's it. To mistake him as a starter is pure folly.
No one is suggesting the team be built around him--he's a very good player and a good influence who should be retained. Re: Bruce--let's just say I'm happy there's an option other than the "just have fun" Dunn/Griffey model to look to.
"Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill
I don't see Hairston making big bucks in arbitration. He'll make less than $2 Million in 2009. I see no reason for a long term deal, but really no reason to dump him either. Keep him around, offer arb if it comes to it, and try to hammer out a reasonable 1 year deal with some incentives and try like heck to dump Freel on somebody. Hairston becomes a nice role playing insurance policy who will need to win playing time in 2009. In the meantime the Reds are looking to bring in young near ready guys for CF and SS who they hope win those spots. If they show they aren't ready yet, Hairston is a nice plan B.
For the record, I don't think he's this good, but I do think he's better than the 2006 and 2007 stats show (and the career stats as a result). Back injuries can really drag down performance and to my knowledge he hasn't had an issue this year with his back.
Last edited by mth123; 07-13-2008 at 12:38 PM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
But fans, for the most part are very fickled, and also very superficial in their overall evaluation of players. What I mean is they only look at the NOW, what a player is currently doing, without taking into consideration what they have done over the course of their career.
Example....I can remember how many were saying how much they loved Ryan Freel because of his hustle, and that those are the type of ballplayers we need on this team.
Now many are lamenting that contract and saying it was a mistake.
And these same fans are the ones who say they love going down to the ballpark and see a Ken Griffey Jr; but will say we need to trade an Adam Dunn because he strikes out too much.
How many were upset over us trading Hamilton for this prospect named Volquez, and said it was a HUGE mistake?
Many examples can be shown over the course of the last several years here in Cincy where fan "exhuberance" over a player(s) turned sour.
And if this FO signs Hairston to a LTC (like a Freel), and this guy regresses next year, or ends up on the DL, where his contribution is not at the level we are seeing now, then those same fans will not only turn on Hairston, but will be going after this FO too for making another huge blunder.
So in that sense, this FO needs to ignore what fans may be saying/thinking, when it comes to a player like Hairston, and do what is right to turn this organization around. And that even means, if possible, being able to turn over a player like Hairston into something more.
This FO... from Castellini, Walt, on down, need to minimize the mistakes when it comes to handing out bad player contracts.
Again.... look at his overall career numbers. Not once has he ever came close, in 9 years in the majors, of consistently putting up those types of numbers.There are late blooming players throughout sports. Guys who figure things out later in their careers. As Hairston's OBP approaches .400, it's hard to consider him a fluke. He's a talented player who hits to all fields, doesn't overswing, makes contact, and plays hard.
Can you give me examples, in MLB, of guys who were late bloomers in their 30s?
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Absolute myth.
Jerry Hairston, Jr. is not a "very good player". Until you can admit that, there's no point in listening to any manlove you have for him.
And yeah, I'd really hate for Bruce to learn from a future 1st ballot HOF, and the Reds' biggest offensive force since 2002.... horrible role models for our young star....
Bizarre how some Reds fans constantly make these associations that make no sense: Volquez=Jack Armstrong, Hairston=Freel... Hairston has an extremely level head and oodles of baseball smarts, which Freel does not. Freel, though fast, is a BAD baserunner. Hairston is an EXCELLENT baserunner. Hairston plays IF better, and takes better routes in the OF than Freel. Freel has the edge in catching up to certain fly balls. Hairston's arm is stronger and more accurate. And finally, I have a feeling Hairston is not the type of guy to get caught up in numerous brushes with the law do to alcohol, a la Freel. If what you mean is that both Freel and Hairston are both leadoff hitters, then you may have a point.
"Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill
His back problems are chronic. At least that was mentioned last week during the Cubs series when he hit the 1B bag wrong, came up somewhat gimpy and was favoring the back. They then showed him, later on, a few times during the course of the game, in the OF, trying to stretch the back and keep it from cramping up.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Yep. They are not good models for young players. Childish approach to the game. When the team is rid of them you will see better baseball, mark my words.
"Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill
That's all I'm suggesting. However at those stretches of 95 games when he hits .344, I'd give him a look as a starter.
"Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill
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