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Thread: Jerry Hairston Jr.

  1. #91
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    I don't think you have to worry about that. For the moment, Hariston is (was) hot and you have to play the hot hand. We've seen it with Freel and others. The danger is when those in charge (manager, GM, owner) decide he is the real deal.

    Never mind. The hot Hairston is gone for now. I imagine, like Feel, he's out for the duration, and that's a shame because he was hot. Jocketty isn't anyone's dummy and he knows this. Time for Walt to find a real shortsop and a right-handed outfielder for next year (as well as a good defensive cather--no, Ross is not that). My money's on Walt. And if not, see ya.
    Not specifically addressed to this post, but you get the feeling generally that some fans are so tied to their prediction of his impending failure that they are missing the pleasure of the great performance Hairston has given the Reds. Freel is also not given his due as a player.

    In terms of their ability, guys like Hairston, Keppinger, and Freel add a great deal to a team. They don't cost a fortune. They have the basic talent to provide a good performance. They hustle. They're versatile. And they are necessary because everybody can't be a $10 plus million superstar.

    I have no doubt that Hairston will continue to perform well, he does not look like a flash in the pan to me. Similarly, I always thought that Freel added a lot (despite some errors of aggression). Freel plays hard and, in streaks, can hit. He plays multiple positions including a reasonable centerfield.

    The Reds' failure with Freel was not overestimating his talents, but being too optimistic about his ability to stay healthy. He was a major injury risk and that was the flaw with his deal. Hairston seems to be a similar injury risk. He's been hurt much in recent years and probably can't be counted on for a lot of games.

    The big issue with these guys is the injury risk, not performance, IMO.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-14-2008 at 05:06 PM.

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  3. #92
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Not specifically addressed to this post, but you get the feeling generally that some fans are so tied to their prediction of his impending failure that they are missing the pleasure of the great performance Hairston has given the Reds. Freel is also not given his due as a player.
    If I can presume to speak for the other doubters as well, it's not that we don't appreciate the great production we've gotten from Hairston. It's merely that given his established record of non-performance, we don't want to bet any money on his continued surge for years to come. Let's enjoy it the rest of the way and if he continues to produce, we can talk deal after the season.

    There's a lot more to lose by giving him an extension than there is to gain by extending him today -- unless you think he's going to continue to hit .350 from here on out.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-14-2008 at 06:34 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #93
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That's excellent news. He went down hard after clearing the bag. Though a DL stint might be Chris Dickerson's chance for a debut.
    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Who is the backup SS then? I think they bring in an IF if Hariston heads to the DL
    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Ah, my bad. You're right. Hairston to the DL probably means Janish back up and more CPatt action. Get healthy Jerry!
    I figure that if Hairston has to go on the disabled list (which I still think is likely), either Janish will be back from Louisville, or (if he's healthy) Cabrera will be activated from the DL. I would prefer Cabrera, so that Janish can continue to get regular playing time at Louisville.

    as for the concern that Corey Patterson will play, he will continue to be a backup, though he would become the fourth outfielder. Dunn, Bruce, and Griffey would be the starting OF.
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  5. #94
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Its kind of sad that instead of embracing the year Hariston has had so far many are ready from him to fall on his face.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Not specifically addressed to this post, but you get the feeling generally that some fans are so tied to their prediction of his impending failure that they are missing the pleasure of the great performance Hairston has given the Reds.
    No one is rooting for it. It's not like we're waiting for him to fall on his face so we can come back and say "See, we told you all so."

    For instance. It was mentioned that he has a injury history, which has caused him to spend a lot of time on the DL. When he went down the other day with the hamstring injury I certainly wasn't celebrating. I was thoroughly bummed and feel for the guy because of what he has contributed to this team this year.

    So yeah... we should acknowledge and recognize what he has done this year. It's been very welcome. Just don't let that '08 performance put binders on you, and ignore his overall career numbers.

    All people are saying, including myself, is.... lets not be "fooled" by his '08 performance. Sure - be glad for what he is doing - but keep things in perspective and take into consideration the guy's entire "portfolio" accumulated over the last nine seasons.

    I'll be the first to admit that Wayne Krivsky, if he were still the GM, would probable jump the gun and make a rash decision and sign this guy to an unwise, and unneccesary, contract. He's done it before.

    I want to retain the guy. I just don't want this FO, because of all the current hype over him, to make a dumb and rash decision based on one season of performance (small window), when the larger window says otherwise.

    I wouldn't break the bank to sign him but I would explore it.
    Freel's current contract didn't "break the bank". It was just simply an unwise and unnecessary decision.

    Would you offer Hairston a similar contract given Freel? We extended him, and are paying him 7 mil over the course of 2 seasons (2008-09).
    Last edited by GAC; 07-14-2008 at 09:02 PM.
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  6. #95
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Ah, my bad. You're right. Hairston to the DL probably means Janish back up and more CPatt action. Get healthy Jerry!

    According to Fay it'll be Cabrera:


    CABRERA CLOSE: Jolbert Cabrera probably will be activated if Jerry Hairston Jr. needs to go on the disabled list.

    Cabrera, who suffered a compound dislocation of his left index finger on June 20, is on a rehab assignment with Single-A Dayton.

    He went into Sunday hitting .357 with three RBI in 14 at-bats.

  7. #96
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Would you offer Hairston a similar contract given Freel? We extended him, and are paying him 7 mil over the course of 2 seasons (2008-09).
    Yes, I think so, unless his inclusion in a current trade can bring something of indisputable value. For me, the argument against signing him is his health history. I think he's going to perform when he's on the field.

    If he were to continue to play at close to the level he's at, you have a real bargain. The salary would be modest in the context of the entire payroll.

    With even average production next year and beyond -- it doesn't have to be comparable to what he's done this year -- his versatility, speed and baseball IQ would make him tradeable, just as Freel was reportedly in demand before he got hurt this year, even after having played poorly for quite awhile before a brief pre-injury renaissance.

    Teams like the Reds have to take chances on all kinds of players -- a late bloomer with excellent intangibles being among them.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  8. #97
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Yes, I think so, unless his inclusion in a current trade can bring something of indisputable value. For me, the argument against signing him is his health history. I think he's going to perform when he's on the field.

    If he were to continue to play at close to the level he's at, you have a real bargain. The salary would be modest in the context of the entire payroll.
    And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?

    With even average production next year and beyond -- it doesn't have to be comparable to what he's done this year -- his versatility, speed and baseball IQ would make him tradeable, just as Freel was reportedly in demand before he got hurt this year, even after having played poorly for quite awhile before a brief pre-injury renaissance.

    Teams like the Reds have to take chances on all kinds of players -- a late bloomer with excellent intangibles being among them.
    Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

    I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #98
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?

    Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

    I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.
    I would guess that very few of the typical mediocre utility guys ever had 213 total plate appearances over several months with a .351 BA and a .893 OPS. I don't know that he's quite as fungible as you indicate -- most career backups aren't capable of this kind of performance.

    And Hairston doesn't have to sustain his current numbers (which likely are unsustainable) to be a productive player. Drop 40 points of BA. Drop 60 points of OPS. Still a good offensive player.

    Finally, I wonder whether anyone knows anything about this player other than his baseball card. Has he changed his approach at the plate? Has his career been plagued with injuries? Are there circumstances we don't know that explain some of his less stellar seasons? How high was his talent level as a young prospect -- is he someone who simply is blooming at a later age?

    I wouldn't dismiss this guy simply on a read through of his career numbers.

  10. #99
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?



    Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

    I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.
    Because he "hustles", "looks like he's trying really hard" and "gets his uniform dirty."

    He's having a great year and I'm glad he can help. I hope some of the other GMs around the league, especially those with tasty farm systems, have similar thoughts to those who want him back as next year's "Freel."

    That would truly be the best value he could provide to the Reds.
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  11. #100
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Jerry is having Joe McEwing's June and July 2001, good for him.

    Don't throw money at him.

  12. #101
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?
    That would be too bad. As I noted, teams like the Reds have to take risks on all kinds of players. I also said, in sentence #1, "unless he can be included in a trade that brings back something of indisputable value."

    Personally, I think there's no way Hairston reverts to that form, unless injuries drag him down. His approach at the plate has been too consistently good.

    Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.
    Hairston's approach will allow him to continue to get on base. And he steals bags too.

    I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.
    Agreed that he very likely won't sustain current levels. But he'll do well enough to fill a very important role, at least, if he is not starting. If healthy, he is not a mediocre utility guy -- he is an outstanding utility guy.

    Just curious -- who do you have hitting leadoff for the team next year? Fred Fungible?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #102
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    I think the Reds have to make an effort to keep Hairston, all the while understanding that he may regress to his previous numbers, because they don't have an abundance of his skills in the organization. They need someone who can leadoff, steal bags, take good ABs, etc. There are no guarantees and every signing is a risk but I think this is a risk they ought to consider.

  14. #103
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Looking at Hairston's splits over his career, and it looks like he can put up good half seasons.

    His three best seasons are good examples:

    02-Overall 705 OPS in 479 PA's, 2nd Half 777 OPS in 283 PA's
    03-Overall 725 OPS in 259 PA's, 1st half 769 OPS in 193 PA's
    04-Overall 775 OPS in 334 PA's, 1st half 812 OPS in 215 PA's.

    That 04 season really looks like this year so far

    04-.324/.390/.422, 215 PA's
    08-.351/.398/.495, 213 PA's.

    In the second half of 04: .265/.356/.353, 119 PA's.

    I'm not sure you want to go multiple years on a guy like this.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  15. #104
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    That would be too bad. As I noted, teams like the Reds have to take risks on all kinds of players.
    I agree, the Reds need to take some calculated risks from time to time in order to keep up with (and hopefully pass) the Joneses. However, IMO, Hairston (going forward) is not the kind of risks the Reds should be taking.

    GL

  16. #105
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    Re: Jerry Hairston Jr.

    I'm not sure you want to go multiple years on a guy like this.
    So long as he holds up physically this year, you won't get him unless you go multiple years. The issue with Hairston is his durability. You have to keep him rested.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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