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Thread: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

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    Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    for those of you in the Dunn-bashing crew, you have the esteemed Mr. Fhey in your corner...

    However, nobody from the ORG. (for full thread, read: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70256)


    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...=2008807130431

    The Reds are going to go into the All-Star break in a sort of baseball limbo.

    Within reach of .500. Not really in contention. Not really out of contention. Playing better, but not really hot.

    Fifty fans would have 50 different reasons why the Reds aren't in better shape. Among the popular complaints:

    Dusty Baker stuck with Corey Patterson too long. The fifth spot in the rotation has been a black hole. Ken Griffey Jr. shouldn't be hitting in the third spot. The Reds don't hit in the clutch. Edwin Encarnacion continues to throw the ball away on a regular basis.

    There's some validity to all of the above.

    But the real reason the Reds are where they are?

    Four of their highest-paid, most experienced players are having bad years. Among Griffey, Adam Dunn, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, none is having even a mediocre year.

    "That's a fair assessment," Baker said. "You pay attention to them because they're big guys. They're the highest-salary guys."

    Dunn makes $13 million, Griffey $12.5 million, Harang $6.75 million and Arroyo $4.575 million - nearly half the Reds' $74.1 million total payroll.

    If all four were close to their average big-league numbers, the Reds probably would be right in the thick of the National League Central race.

    If two of the four were having decent years, the Reds probably would be .500 or better.

    Baker and his coaches have spent a lot of time trying to get them there.

    "You try to find out why," Baker said. "You try to get a guy back to that point of excellence that everyone is used to, especially them. Nobody's more disappointed than they are."

    But none of the four is even close to the numbers on the backs of their baseball cards. Consider (all stats are going into Saturday's game):

    Griffey is hitting .235 with 12 home runs and 43 RBI. He hasn't hit left-handers (.198) and he hasn't hit with runners in scoring position (.224).

    Griffey is 38 years old, so no one expects the 1997 Griffey. But the Reds would take the 2007 Griffey. He was hitting .286 with 23 home runs and 59 RBI at the break last year.

    Dunn is hitting .225 with 24 home runs and 54 RBI. His on-base percentage (.381) is the best on the team, and he's tied for the NL lead in walks.

    But, like Griffey, he has struggled against left-handers (.179) and with RISP (.213).

    Dunn probably never is going to hit .300 or even .280, but he hit .264 last year.

    Harang is 3-11 with a 4.76 ERA. His sore forearm and workload might have something to do with his numbers.

    But even before the infamous relief appearance in San Diego, Harang could not seem to get on the kind of roll he had in the past.

    Arroyo is 7-7 with a 5.97 ERA. He admitted last week that he's very lucky to be at .500 given his ERA.

    Of the big four, he's shown the most positive signs of turning it around. He's 3-0 over his last three starts.

    Baker is banking the second half on the hope that the big four will be themselves again.

    "We've got a lot of season left," he said. "Hopefully, they can have a monster 2 months."

    Three of the four are in their prime years: Arroyo's 31, Harang's 30 and Dunn's 28.

    Again, Griffey is 38. His father, Ken Sr., hit .286 with 14 home runs and 64 RBI at 37. He hit .255 with four home runs and 23 RBI the next year.

    But Baker thinks all four can return to reasonable facsimiles of their former selves.

    "Yeah, they can," Baker said. "I know some people don't think so, but I think so."

    If they don't, the Reds' second half will be a lot like their first half.
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    I have been pretty hard on Dunn, but I don't think it is fair to lump him in with Harang, Arroyo and Griffey. Dunn is having almost exactly the same year he always has. You can argue about the value of that, but you can't say he is having a "bad" year, he is just having a "Dunn" year.

    That said, I can give Fay a little slack, not much, but a little. I think his main thought was that these guys are among the highest paid, and have not performed like it. And he did qualify it by saying that Dunn is have a good year with HR's RBI's and OBP, but that Dunn is hitting worse against lefties than usual, and worse with RISP. Those are crucial enough stats that I think one could argue he is having an off year in some respects. Also Dunn has had two terrible slumps this year, which can make it seem like he has been less productive overall (or his hot streaks make it seem like he is more productive overall) than he really has been. But also is par for the course with Dunn, even he admits that.

    Just for the record, I think Griffey will have a much better second half. He really seemed to have turned it around the last few weeks.

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    John Fay is a damn fool. Simply put.

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Dunn's stats 26 HR's, 59 rbi's, 99 k's ON pace for 45 HR's, 102 rbi's and 171 K's per ESPN
    2007 stats 40 Hr's 106 rbi's and 165 K's

    Granted he'll probably slump somewhere along the way but these are the facts

    Tell me if i can't compare the stats but its looks as if he is having a pretty consistent year compared to last year

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Dunn isn't the problem. The Reds just do not use Dunn correctly. He needs to be hitting 3rd. His OBP is wasted in 5th.

    Arroyo is getting better, but I don't see much consistency from him and his upcoming escalating salary is going to become a HUGE problem ($9.5 million in 2009, $11 million in 2010, and $11 million in 2011 with a $2 million dollar buyout. Arroyo will NEVER be an $11 million dollar pitcher.

    Harang has not been healthy.

    Griffey is old, but starting to swing the bat better.

    Now, I don't think Fay was attacking these guys. But, if we are going to spend around $35 million or 4 players, they better play pretty darn well, and in that I do agree with him.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

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    The Latin Heartthrob Javy Pornstache's Avatar
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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    John Fay has been enjoying a less than mediocre career as Reds beat writer for the Cincinnati Enquirer.

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Quote Originally Posted by improbus View Post
    Dunn isn't the problem. The Reds just do not use Dunn correctly. He needs to be hitting 3rd. His OBP is wasted in 5th.

    .

    I agree. If Dunn were only hitting third, he would be an all star and the Reds would be challenging the Cubs. What a waste of a fine OBP.

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Dunn is the problem. If he were the real deal, we'd get 130 rbi's plus out of him.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Dunn is much closer to the norm than the others. This is a good example of Fay just grasping for material. To be fair, this year's contracts for Harang and Arroyo aren't exactly bank busters. It's the next few years when they become huge. Take a look at this from Cot's:

    Starting pitchers
    The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

    Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
    Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
    Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
    Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
    Andy Pettitte, $16,000,000 (2008)
    Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
    Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08)
    Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)
    Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)
    John Smoltz, $14,000,000 (2008)

    Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)
    Pedro Martinez, $13,250,000 (2005-08)
    Randy Johnson, $13,000,000 (2007-08)
    Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)
    Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)
    Kevin Millwood, $12,000,000 (2006-10)

    If you ain't first, you're last! - Ricky Bobby

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    Dunn is the problem. If he were the real deal, we'd get 130 rbi's plus out of him.
    Please, please, PLEASE tell me that you're being sarcastic.

    You understand that RBIs are wholly dependent on the players AROUND you, correct?

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    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    I said it all along dunn will end up with the best numbers he's ever had. Book it.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
    2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
    2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-0

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce4HOF View Post
    Please, please, PLEASE tell me that you're being sarcastic.

    You understand that RBIs are wholly dependent on the players AROUND you, correct?
    Yer right... the lame .213 RISP has nothing to do with it at all.

    I for one think Fay's point is valid. Those "big four" should be the ones you want up/on the mound with the game on the line. And they simply aren't. Or haven't been yet.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Yer right... the lame .213 RISP has nothing to do with it at all.

    Would you be happier if he had 2 more singles so far with RISP? That would raise Dunn's BA up to .250 w/RISP, which is higher than his lifetime average, and give him another 2-4 rbi on the year.

    For comparison sake:

    BPhil has had 282 runners on base (including 1st only)
    Dunn has had 214 runners on base (including 1st only)

    BPhil is hitting .295 with RISP
    Dunn is hitting .213 with RISP

    BPhil has 58 rbi
    Dunn has 59 rbi

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    A friend sent me these stats last week. They may have changed slightly, but the numbers show that Dunn has done a lot with little.

    Phillips has had many more chances than Dunn with fewer results. And for the sac fly / productive out crowd, BP 5 sac flies Dunn 4 sac flies. Put AD in the 3-4 hole with JHJ Kepp and even BP in front of him and his RBI totals would easily be in the 70's... Also Phillips cost 2 RBIs early in the year by getting hit by Dunn's base hit with the bases loaded.


    Phillips 245

    Griffey 165

    Dunn 156

    Runners on 3rd while batting:

    Phillips 48

    Griffey 25

    Dunn 29

    Runners on 2nd while batting :

    Phillips 76

    Griffey 50

    Dunn 59

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    Re: Per Fay, Dunn having "less than mediocre" year...

    Fay is guilty of falling for the same gag that the rest of the Dunn bashers fall for - the "Back of the Bubblegum Card Analysis"...

    There's a lot more to read into the Analysis, where OBP and OPS are more true indicators of production.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009


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