Glad to see Francisco represented well on some of these lists. I know he has OBP and (presumably) discipline issues, but the guy just turned 21 and he drives in runs. With his power, he appears to be a No. 5-type hitter, and in that spot I'm not too concerned about walks. I'd rather have somebody who brings the runners in, and Francisco seems to possess a knack for that. Does anybody know anything about his defense at 3B?
No Ryan Hanigan? I think you're underestimating what hes going to bring to the Reds once called up. Unless the Reds trade for a catcher which I think is stupid. When Hanigan gets his ab's we'll be taking about our catcher for the next few years. The guy is a gamer that gets hits and gets on base. In Sept it'll be time to see what he's got.
He got called up last September. I think Hanigan should be getting some time as backup over Bako, who's carriage turned into a pumpkin on May 1st. He's below .200 since May 1.
But I think to dream he'll hit over .275 with zero power is dreaming.
The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.
Good list OBM and as you know I am with you on Soto the kid is a stud. However I am going to switch my list up a bit, one that would normally look alot like yours but recently I have started to re-examine a few things and it's changed my perspective just a hair. I am basing my list on a combination of how big an impact I think the guy will have at the major league level and th e likelihood they make it. This list is always subject to change assuming I see something in their games that leads me to believe they will accel or take a step back.
I also wanna add a little bit of a major league comp so to speak. What I mean is a player that has a game similiar to each prospect, or really simply a player that each prospects game reminds me of at 1st glance. I would like to hear some takes on this issue from everyone.
1.) Yonder Alonso - I worry about his ability to hit the yacker a bit but right now that's a tad premature as I only saw a limited sample of him. I have had some problems ranking him here recently due to him not having hit a pro pitch yet and the fact that he is still unsigned. But his potential IMO is slightly higher than any of the other hitters in the system sans maybe Soto but that's too soon to argue.
Comp - Andres Galaragga-Esque (but with a more BB driven OBP)
2.) Neftali Soto - It's too soon to go on and on about him but I love his potential as a dynamic middle of the order bat. I could have put someone else ahead of him based on them being closer to the bigs but I do think he eventually makes it and his overall offensive game IMO makes him a potential star.
Comp - Alex Rios-Esque (maybe better offensively)
3.) Chris Valaika - Here's where it get's a little different. Too me it's easily an argument of Valaika vs. Frazier. Too me it's simple and I can break it down further but I'll just put it like this, Frazier is looking like a #5 or 6 hitter and Valaika a #2 hitter. Frazier's upside I think is as a #4 and Valaika a #3 and I currently feel like Val is a better bet to reach his upside. I still love Frazier but Valaika just continues to hit for average and enough power while continuing to improve his plate discipline.
Comp - Jeff Keppinger-Esque (A better and more athletic version)
4.) Todd Frazier - Frazier could end up being as impactful as any or even moreso but my gut right now is just saying that Valaika edges him albeit slightly.
Comp - Michael Cuddyer-Esque (A slightly better Cuddyer)
5.) Adam Rosales - A little old but he hits with enough avg and pop, also has solid plate discipline. Not spectacular at the next level but should be a solid all-around bat.
Comp - Aaron Boone
6.) Sean Henry - See OBM's post on him and the scouting report on him mentions his speed which adds a dimension potentially. Add to that fact that he is playing as well as any player at that level and he is the youngest of the group (beats Valaika by 4 days). If he continues to work on his plate discipline I think he's a very solid sleeper for an average starting CF all around.
Comp - Ryan Freel-Esque (hopefully a better fundamental version)
7.) Shaun Cumberland - A very competent solid 4th OF type IMO who's offense is competent enough all-around to not kill ya when he has to start.
Comp - Chris Denorfia-Esque
8.) Danny Dorn - If not for the likelihood of him ending up a platoon player he would be #5 or for sure. So if he get's that part of it together he could be very valuable down the road.
Comp - Sean Casey (with less avg but slightly more pop)
9.) Drew Stubbs - We all know his story (Just for you GG) however I am convinced that he has probably gotten away from choking up like he did when he was more successful. If anyone can confirm that he is/isn't I would highly appreciate it. If he isn't then it explains alot to me, and if so he would have to go back to it to climb this list. If he doesn't then he will continue to struggle as he goes and will probably fall of this list a bit as we go forward.
Comp - Mike Cameron (with less pop but better discipline)
10.) Alex Bucholz - This might be really soon but I like what I have seen so far. Seems to be a guy that will have a good all around offensive game enough to start. But this is more of an indictment on the remaining guys than Bucholz's potential.
Comp - Pre-(alledged) PED Bret Boone?
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
JMO But others I could have included but didn't have major flaws and any major flaw makes it far less likely that they even make it and/or make any meaningful impact.
Heisey - Should make a solid eventual 4th/5th OF type who has enough tools to not be a liability. I would probably make him 11th right now.
Turner/Castro/Hanigan - Very little pop which equals to a nice solid backup 2B/SS/C respectively. But because he does maximize his other tools Turner should be just that, a fringy starter/good backup who hits low in the lineup.
Waring/Francisco - Major Holes in swing/Discipline, these guys power potential is great but meaningless at this point if they cannot make considerable more contact. The good news for Francisco is that he is a year younger and a level higher than Waring so he still has a shot, Waring I doubt.
Dickerson/Gutierrez - Bat speed?? Why else do guys with that kind of production not get a shot unless they are most likely AAAA types?
Janish might also fall into the AAAA type if he cannot do anything with that swing. I will put him here between AAAA and Incomplete. I don't ever expect him to be anything more than an avg offensive player but that could work if the rest of the team was good offensively. However he would have to do a lot to just be avg even at SS, but I'm not completely ready to give up on him ever being passable.
Mesoraco/Cozart/Reed - Incomplete
Oliveras/Brown/Sappelt/Stovall/Duran - Young up and comers
Kuo, Conner, Lutz and Contreras may never make it but I kinda like them so I'll consider them super sleepers.
Anyone not mentioned IMO has little to no chance to make it past AA, sans some major developmental key.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
Francisco is a level higher, but 385 PA, 11 Walks, .293 OBP.
Waring 314 PA, 29 Walks, .353 OBP.
Waring seems like a reasonable bat if he can maintain that power. FRancisco is the one who looks like he chases too much. FRancisco is younger but has been in the system a year longer so he's a step ahead and is kind of blocking Waring's progression. IMO, Waring is a better long term bet and Francisco would be one of my primary trade pieces,
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Francisco has a similar issue where the odds that he improves his plate discipline enough to be successful in the majors is also very slim.
Francisco just turned 21. Over the next three years he will show his prodigious power. If he can improve his OBP a bit he will definitely be a major leaguer.
His numbers are down a bit this year, but he's playing in the tough FSL at Sarasota. This was deemed a key point in evaluating Stubbs but somehow doesn't show up in the evaluations of Francisco.
If Francisco hits the long ball as he's capable, the walks will come.
The level someone is at (outside of the DSL and VSL) doesn't really have much to do with the walk rate of a batter. So the Stubbs thing isn't really comparable.
I don't think Francisco's power will turn into walks. He led the MWL last year in HR and everyone knew it.... yet he walked once every 20 times he stepped to the plate. Guys weren't that afraid of him and weren't pitching around him because they know he will swing at nearly everything.
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Todd Frazier (he and Valaika are close, but he has a little more power and better plate discipline)
3. Chris Valaika
4. Neftali Soto (he is quickly displaying his talent, and is moving to the top of the Reds prospect list)
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Juan Francisco (he is rated by me for his current power and power potential, but he has to improve his patience. He has to learn how to get on base via the BB)
7. Danny Dorn
8. Justin Turner (This guy will be a major league player - I have no doubt)
There are only 8 - some other prospects show "usefullness" offensively, but have a lot to work on.
Now looking at the numbers
Player K rate BB rate
Waring 36.2% 9%
Francisco 23.1% 3%
The fact that Waring is walking at an OK rate indicates he is laying off the really bad pitches but is still striking out at an alarming rate. This would indicate to me he has a either a really long swing or a slow bat or both.
Franciso on the other hand appears to be swinging at everything but is still making contact at a better rate than Waring.
So with that being said I believe Francisco can become a more effective player by controlling the strike zone better. Being that strike zone control is a skill that improves as players get older I think there is a chance he can get better. Waring seems to be aflicted with stike zone control and a slow bat/long swing which I think is much more to fix.
Now throw in that Franciso is 1.5 years younger and a level higher I think its a Big edge for Francisco. Honestly though I really doubt either player will make much of an impact at the major league level.