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Thread: Dunn vs. Howard

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    From the RBI Opportunities report from BP (min 200 PA, N=255):

    Code:
    #	NAME		PA	PA_ROB	R1	R2	R3	R1_BI	R2_BI	R3_BI	ROB	OBI	R1BI%	R2BI%	R3BI%	OBI%
    21.	Ryan Howard	417	210	127	111	58	10	29	17	296	56	7.9%	26.1%	29.3%	18.9%
    93.	Adam Dunn	373	144	92	78	46	10	9	14	216	33	10.9%	11.5%	30.4%	15.3%
    - Ryan Howard has 296 runners on base and driven in 56 of them (18.9%)
    - Adam Dunn has had 216 runners on base and driven in 33 of them (15.3%)

    Howard has done a much better job than Dunn at converting runners on second base, which I find odd considering their comparable batting averages. I'm guessing it has something to do with who has happened be on base for Howard's HR.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-18-2008 at 01:52 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    I think that you're thinking too hard. do you really think that a guy who's good at both of those situations (the collective percentage) is not also good at both individually?

    could be true, but my guess is that there's a very strong correlation.

    there are problems with the stat but that's not one that bugs me.

    the data that I've recently been posting for Dunn vs. Lee, Hamilton, Howard and Pujols are better, because I've been tallying the actual number of runners and doubling the weight of the atbats with two men in scoring position. I've not subtracted HRs because I was lazy but also because why penalize a HR?

    but such stats are surely important-- my guess is that it's close to what managers, GMs and scouts file away in their head as they watch numerous atbats, but here we have an actual percentage and not an "impression". It probably suggests why Adam Dunn has very little trade value, and suggests that EdE probably doesn't as well. And if EdE DOES have trade value, it could be worth exploiting because the team needs to raise this rate, IMO

    except for a decent jump this season, Dunn's percentage has remained fairly consistent throughout his career-- I'm not sure if that's true for multiple batters.

    But this chart assumes that all RBI opportunities are equivalent. They are not, and that is why I say this chart is fairly meaningless. Say player A and B perform exactly the same with runners in scoring postion but player A always has runners at 2nd and 3rd in those situations while player B only has a runner on 2nd. Player A's RBI percentage will be much higher than player B's.

    All you really have to do is look at the list. Chase Utley is not in the top 100? Really.

  4. #18
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    It also raises the question about the quality of the runners on for each hitter. Utley, Rollins and Victorino all have speed to burn and are known as smart baserunners. Basehits or medium fly balls and you can bet those guys maximize the chances for Howard to drive in a run.

    For the Reds, Jr. hits in front of Dunn. Whatever else Jr. is, he's not fast at this point. So, even when the runners are on in front of Dunn, not sure that it is still an apples to apples comparison, Phils to Reds.

  5. #19
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    right, you need to double the weight of the atbats with two runners on, but that's pretty easy. Interestingly, over their careers Dunn and Lee had identical percentage of atbats with two ISP vs. one ISP, and Pujols' was just a smidge lower, so you can probably fudge this away for large sample sizes.

    but I agree that for a half of a season, you'll see some differences. But I doubt that it'll change rankings too much.

  6. #20
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    Also, many blame Dunn's strikeouts for his "inability" to drive in runs, yet the only man who strikes out more than him leads the league in RBIs.
    I'm sure Phillies fans think if Howard cut the K's he'd win the triple crown or someting like that
    Go Gators!

  7. #21
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    All you really have to do is look at the list. Chase Utley is not in the top 100? Really.
    I'm not sure why it's a surprise. I've got him at 31 percent for the current season, down from his 34 percent career percentage.

    Dunn's at 35 percent for the season, up from only 27 percent for his career. mediocre? ha, the Donkey has delivered.

  8. #22
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    Also, many blame Dunn's strikeouts for his "inability" to drive in runs, yet the only man who strikes out more than him leads the league in RBIs.
    That is an excellent point.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  9. #23
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Interesting article about Howard. Talks about him as the biggest two outcome player in baseball (HR or K) and that the Phillies should move him now.

    http://www.yardbarker.com/tools/ybn_...k_through/1284

  10. #24
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeyenut View Post
    Interesting article about Howard. Talks about him as the biggest two outcome player in baseball (HR or K) and that the Phillies should move him now.

    http://www.yardbarker.com/tools/ybn_...k_through/1284
    Trade Dunn for Howard? Heh.

  11. #25
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Is there any one person, on this board, that actually thinks it would be a good idea for Philly to trade Ryan Howard?
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  12. #26
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Is there any one person, on this board, that actually thinks it would be a good idea for Philly to trade Ryan Howard?
    Depends on what the return is. No one is untouchable. If the Yankees call and offer Chamberlain and Arod for him, you bet its a great idea to trade him. All depends on the return.

  13. #27
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Depends on what the return is. No one is untouchable. If the Yankees call and offer Chamberlain and Arod for him, you bet its a great idea to trade him. All depends on the return.
    yeah, but no way you are getting fair value for Howard. I doubt people would even ask.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  14. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    yeah, but no way you are getting fair value for Howard. I doubt people would even ask.
    Well thats the point.... its not crazy to trade him, if given the right return. I went with an extreme there, but there are trades that they would entertain that aren't quite to that extreme.

  15. #29
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Is there any one person, on this board, that actually thinks it would be a good idea for Philly to trade Ryan Howard?
    Fans of teams that play the Phillies and want him gone?
    Go Gators!

  16. #30
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn vs. Howard

    The biggest similarity between these two players is that large chunks of their fan bases are inexplicably turning on them. Both are even money 500 home run guys, and therefore are even money to make the hall of fame.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008


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