Weathers(2007) vs. Cordero(2008)

[mbgrayson]

Sorry, but I couldn't resist:

2007 David Weathers: 33 saves, 6 blown saves, 84.6% conversion rate. 27 BBs, 48 Ks, for a 1.562 K/BB rate. 3.59 ERA. 4 HRs allowed. WHIP= 1.210.
2007 salary: $2,250,000.

2008 Francisco Cordero(thru 7/21/08): 20 saves, 6 blown saves, 76.9% conversion rate. 28 BBs, 50 Ks, for a 1.56 K/BB rate. 3.52 ERA. 4 HRs allowed. WHIP= 1.456.
2008 salary: $8,625,000, plus we lost our 2nd round draft pick to Milwaukee.

Back when Cordero was signed last year, there were a lot of us talking about the technique discussed in Moneyball of not over-paying for a closer. Billy Beane built up his closer's marke value, then traded them away for draft picks once their salaries spiked. Look over all the big money deals to closers over the last few years. Closers are a volatile and transient commodity. Closers are almost never a good investment for a long term contract.

The data listed above show that even a near replacement level pitcher like Weathers can close games... The Reds are going to regret paying that money for a long time... Small market teams can't afford mistakes like this if they want to contend.

[HokieRed]

No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save. I thought from the beginning, and continue to think, this was another of Wayne's horrible investments. Krivsky's contracts are the greatest obstacle to this team's rebuilding. Walt will need to be a genius to move this team to any higher than 4th for at least 2009 and probably beyond.

[alexad]

No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save. I thought from the beginning, and continue to think, this was another of Wayne's horrible investments. Krivsky's contracts are the greatest obstacle to this team's rebuilding. Walt will need to be a genius to move this team to any higher than 4th for at least 2009 and probably beyond.

6 blown saves that would have been wins for this club. I would rather have Weathers than COCO............If I have to hear George say COCO one more time, I am going to puke.

[mbgrayson]

No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save.

This is true. Weathers blown saves have come mostly when he is used heavily. He cannot seem to convert when pitching 3 straight nights.

When does he pitch a lot? When the Reds are winning.

The whole closer model is flawed. Cordero could be much better if we just let Bray or Burton pitch when Cordero is gassed. Spread the saves out a little....don't put all your eggs in one basket.

[cincinnati chili]

I can accept the argument that Cordero was overpaid, but the biggest difference between Cordero '08 and Weathers '07 is luck.

I don't think Cordero threw all that badly tonight.There were a number of close ball/strike calls, and at least one of the two balls hit to right field were catchable, had Bruce made proper reads on them.

Contrast that with Weathers' eighth inning, in which he chucked and ducked to four batters or so, and then a rookie batter took an ill-advised two strike curve ball.

For those not familiar with Cordero's history, be aware that Texas quit on him in '06 after a similar round of bad luck. Blip on the radar.

I'd like to see him be around the strike zone more early in the count. Trust his stuff. But I'll go to war with Cordero in the worst stretch of his career over David Weathers during the best stretch of his career.

[Deepred05]

No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save. I thought from the beginning, and continue to think, this was another of Wayne's horrible investments. Krivsky's contracts are the greatest obstacle to this team's rebuilding. Walt will need to be a genius to move this team to any higher than 4th for at least 2009 and probably beyond.

That is what hurts the most. It seems he has blown some critical games this year, not the least of which was the first San Diego game. (18 inning affair.) I know I have a sense of dread when he enters the game.

[mbgrayson]

I can accept the argument that Cordero was overpaid, but the biggest difference between Cordero '08 and Weathers '07 is luck.

I don't think Cordero threw all that badly tonight.There were a number of close ball/strike calls, and at least one of the two balls hit to right field were catchable, had Bruce made proper reads on them.

Contrast that with Weathers' eighth inning, in which he chucked and ducked to four batters or so, and then a rookie batter took an ill-advised two strike curve ball.

For those not familiar with Cordero's history, be aware that Texas quit on him in '06 after a similar round of bad luck. Blip on the radar.

I'd like to see him be around the strike zone more early in the count. Trust his stuff. But I'll go to war with Cordero in the worst stretch of his career over David Weathers during the best stretch of his career.

Ancedotal citations to one game are interesting, but very unscientific. The traditional measure of 'luck' for a pitcher is BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. A higher BABIP show that the pitcher was unlucky, and had more hits fall in than might be expected.

Weathers 2007 BABIP was .269, compared to his career BABIP of .312, showing that he was in fact somewhat 'lucky' last year to have fewer balls in play fall for hits than usual. Source.

Cordero in 2008 has a BABIP of .292 going into tonight's game. His career BABIP is .315. So he has also been luckier than usual this year. Source.

In other words, this year is LUCKIER than usual for Cordero, not unluckier.

For relievers, I think WHIP is important. Relief pitchers with high WHIP numbers are always allowing baserunners to get on, and have to work out of trouble constantly. My subjective observation of this is that all year, Cordero has allowed a lot of baserunners, and WAY too many walks.

The stats bear this out: Cordero allowing 1.456 baserunners per inning is just not that good for a top line closer. Cordero's career WHIP is 1.35, also not great.

By comparison, Mariano Rivera has a career WHIP of 1.03, Jon Papelbon's career WHIP is .93, Trevor Hoffman is 1.05, Saito is .89, Putz is 1.14, Joe Nathan is 1.14, Billy Wagner 1.01, Burton is at 1.23 career, Joakim Soria is at .85.

On the other end of the spectrum, Danny Graves had a career WHIP of 1.40.....hmmmm.

Further proof that Cordero is simply NOT a top flight closer. He might look almost unhittable at times, but not when he is worked heavily, and not with all the walks he gives up. His high velocity masks his serious control issues a little. But as that velocity drops off, as it always does when a pitcher ages, watch out....

And by the way, Weathers got a nice strikeout tonight of Chase Headley to work his way out of trouble. Scary thought: Weather's ERA(3.35) this year is now better than Cordero's(3.52). About tonight's umpiring, the Padres announcers complained liked crazy about the large zone Cordero had tonight, especially on the called third strike to Ambres to lead off the 9th.

[RedsManRick]

Cordero is a very effective pitcher having a run of bad luck. But pitching in the 9th inning isn't a skill which merits 2-3x the pay the pitcher would get otherwise. The Reds weren't too smart to spend as much as they did on him.

[RedlegJake]

Cordero has a history of being on and off. That history was readily apparent to anyone looking at his career. The Reds overpaid to get a closer who has spells of ineffectiveness. He might go the next month looking unhittable. He might go the next month blowing just about every save. That's the pitcher they paid for.

[hebroncougar]

Cordero is a very effective pitcher having a run of bad luck. But pitching in the 9th inning isn't a skill which merits 2-3x the pay the pitcher would get otherwise. The Reds weren't too smart to spend as much as they did on him.

I don't know. I believe Marty said on Saturday that Cordero had retired the side in order only 9 out of 43 chances. By my count that is 9 out of 45 chances, if he was correct on Saturday. That's not very effective, that is downright awful for someone who is being paid as the highest closer in baseball.

[Ltlabner]

Aw..the sweet smell of RZ hysteria. Hardly any discusion of Cordero until two bad outings and then we are treated to the cries of 'I knew he sucked all along!'

I agree that they overpaid and the closers role is overrated. I compleatley disagree that they could have gone with Weathers for another year.

Is there real data to support the notion that Cordero gets gassed and has been ridden hard? It sure seems like he's been run out for a lot of non-save situations where someone else might have been used.

Then again, I thought the same thing with Burton and was wrong there too.

[cumberlandreds]

IIRC,Cordero went through a dry spell about this time last season with the Brewers. It might be time to give him a break in the closers role and let someone else close for a week or two,like Weathers or even Bray. Burton, if healthy, could but he's not at the moment. Part of managing is knowing when to pull in the reins on someone and when to ride them. Time to pull in the reins on Cordero,Dusty, and let someone try it for at least a short time.

[Kc61]

In other words, this year is LUCKIER than usual for Cordero, not unluckier.

For relievers, I think WHIP is important. Relief pitchers with high WHIP numbers are always allowing baserunners to get on, and have to work out of trouble constantly. My subjective observation of this is that all year, Cordero has allowed a lot of baserunners, and WAY too many walks.

The stats bear this out: Cordero allowing 1.456 baserunners per inning is just not that good for a top line closer. Cordero's career WHIP is 1.35, also not great.

By comparison, Mariano Rivera has a career WHIP of 1.03, Jon Papelbon's career WHIP is .93, Trevor Hoffman is 1.05, Saito is .89, Putz is 1.14, Joe Nathan is 1.14, Billy Wagner 1.01, Burton is at 1.23 career, Joakim Soria is at .85.

On the other end of the spectrum, Danny Graves had a career WHIP of 1.40.....hmmmm.

And by the way, Weathers got a nice strikeout tonight of Chase Headley to work his way out of trouble. Scary thought: Weather's ERA(3.35) this year is now better than Cordero's(3.52). About tonight's umpiring, the Padres announcers complained liked crazy about the large zone Cordero had tonight, especially on the called third strike to Ambres to lead off the 9th.

Very interesting post. IMO a good reliever should have a WHIP of 1.30 or below. A starter 1.40 or below.

Last year with the Brewers Cordero had a WHIP of 1.11. So the Reds may have bought on the basis of a career year. All his numbers were excellent last year.

Since 2003, Cordero's WHIP numbers have generally been around the 1.3 mark. His lifetime WHIP suffers from some early years with very high numbers.

So I think his record of allowing runners the last several years (since 2003) isn't bad, but on the basis of runners allowed usually isn't in the elite category. Again, 2007 was a superb year for him.

Cordero's higher-than-you-would-like WHIP is largely a function of walks.
Most years Cordero keeps hits allowed to an acceptable level, but sometimes has a high number of walks.

This year he has walked 28 in 46 innings, which leads to his 1.45 WHIP. (Last year Cordero walked 18 all year, again an extraordinary season for him.)

Last night, after Scott Hairston walked with one out the floodgates opened.

Even last year, his great year, Cordero was 0-4 and blew 7 saves. So there are games where he doesn't shut the opposition down. And this year he is being used more heavily, maybe that has some impact. Maybe Cordero needs a bit less work.

IMO Cordero hasn't thrown that well since the ASB and just doesn't seem to be himself right now. I think he'll snap back, but last night's loss was pretty devastating. The Reds are at home now playing weaker teams and can't blow leads to lose games if they want to finish above .500, which seems to be the goal.

As for the "scary" thought of Cordero's ERA is worse than Weathers, it's only scary if you subscribe to the view of some posters around here that Weathers isn't any good. I don't subscribe to that, I think Weathers has been a real warrior for the Reds and since Burton went down with injury has stepped it up for this team. When he departs, he will be missed.

[durl]

Closers are going to blow games (you just hope it's never 2 in a row...) so I can't be extremely upset. But the nagging disappointment is that if Cordero would have been able to hold the lead in the 9th these past 2 outings, the Reds would be 1 game away from .500. One lousy game...

Hopefully Cordero can get over this hump.

[Matt700wlw]

Cordero blew 7 all of last season, so he's clearly off this year, which seems to be pretty typical when pitchers come to Cincinnati.


That's the frustrating thing...he's not the first pitcher to come here and do worse.