Dunn - 2008 breakdown

[I(heart)Freel]

Much is being made of Dunn this week. We're debating his worth to the team, whether to trade him and how he ranks among the elite sluggers the past 4 seasons etc.

I thought I would cut up his 2008 numbers a bit more. From following the team this year, I felt like his production came disproportionately from the long ball (ie I remember the walk off homers but I can't remember him getting that single with a guy on second when we needed it). So I went to the stats.

Full disclosure: I'm in the "trade Dunn" camp. I don't think he's worth what he'll make next year, so I think you trade him and get a great prospect. (I hear we're asking for two. I'd take a major league ready one now.) I do believe he's a fine ballplayer. But this team shouldn't pay someone 15-20 percent of their payroll for homerun-only RBI production. And that is pretty much Dunn. At the end of the year, his stats are impressive. But they are almost exclusively from an event that happens 40 or so times out of 600 or so plate appearances, over the course of the season. Let's say he hits 45 dongs this year. That's 45 out of 600 PAs. Or 7.5 percent of the time he comes to the plate. To me, that just doesn't cut it for RBI production. I would expect the highest paid batter on the team to not rely on the longball to drive in runs.

But here are the stats. Interpret as you will. And I know you will.


409 plate apps - breakdown

• 79 hits
• 76 walks
• 105 strikeouts
• 5 sacrifice flies

79 hits - breakdown

• 30 homers
• 0 triples
• 13 doubles
• 36 singles

30 homers - breakdown

• 18 solo
• 5 two-run
• 5 three-run
• 2 grand slams

72 RBIs – breakdown

• 51 from homeruns
• 21 from non-homeruns

RBI production via homerun (51) – breakdown

• drove in 18 with bases empty (in 249 PAs)
• drove in 6 with runner on first (in 53 PAs)
• drove in 4 with runner on second (in 28 PAs)
• drove in 0 with runner on third (in 13 PAs)
• drove in 12 with runners on first and second (in 29 PAs)
• drove in 3 with runners on first and third (in 10 PAs)
• drove in 0 with runners on second and third (in 14 PAs)
• drove in 8 with bases loaded (in 11 PAs)

RBI production not via homerun (21) – breakdown

• never scored a man from first except via HR (in 50 PAs)
• drove in 1 from second (in 26 PAs)
• drove in 4 from third (in 13 PAs)
• drove in 4 with runners on first and second (in 25 PAs)
• drove in 4 with runners on first and third (in 9 PAs)
• drove in 4 with runners on second and third (in 14 PAs)
• drove in 4 with bases loaded (in 11 PAs)
  • 2 from bases loaded walks

[Fil3232]

Honestly, this is a bunch of noise.

Not a whole lot of good data on that list.

[I(heart)Freel]

You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

That he's hit only 36 singles?

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

[Ghosts of 1990]

However he's doing it. Keep on doing it. If we drafted a player or had a prospect that was projected to put up Dunn #'s like this over a 5 year period and beyond, you'd all be frothing at the mouth. But since it's Dunn and the rest of the team has been awful while he's been here and gone out every day and played, he is the scapegoat. Like the QB of a losing team even when that QB is a fine QB.

[OUReds]

No, but I was surprised to see that he is top 10 in the league in RBIs despite playing on an offense that is 21st in MLB in OPS and 19th-21st in OBP. Replace Dunn's production with an average left fielder and it's even uglier of course.

I'm not sure where this weeks idea that homeruns=bad comes from.

Come to think of it, since the rest of the team doesn't really get on base at an acceptable rate (excluding Dunn of course 22nd in MLB in OBP), it's probably not much of a surprise that most of his team-dependent RBI numbers come via the longball.

[BLEEDS]

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

That's because you're being myopic. Dunn bats 5th, not 3rd. If there's a guy on 2nd - and FIRST BASE IS OPEN - he's not getting anything to hit.

You may think Dunn is an easy out, but Pitchers don't, they'd rather pitch to EE 99 times out of 100.

That's something perhaps Dusty should read. Either he could a) put Dunn lower in the lineup to either take (further) advantage of him being pitched around so he could score 150 runs a year instead of 100 or b) put someone who can hit from both sides of the plate behind Dunn - like Votto - to give him more pitches to see and better concern for putting him on base.

NAH - let's get rid of him!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BuckU]

You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

That he's hit only 36 singles?

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

[Fil3232]

I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

Define "fluffy."

And I'll pose this question- don't you wish the Reds had more guys who could produce such fluffy numbers?

[SultanOfSwing]

You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

That he's hit only 36 singles?

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

Ummm... so what?

Why does it matter how a player drives in runs?
And what exactly is the correlation between singles and RBI?

You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

I do believe that would favor Dunn. Singles, doubles, and triples are all defense dependent. HR are not. Baserunning mistakes can be made, OF can make great throws, etc. HR are guaranteed RBI.

[BLEEDS]

I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, I am ALL EARS waiting for someone to tell me how we can replace the RC that Dunn provides in other ways.

some guidelines:
1 - be specific
2 - be realistic - ie signing Manny Ramirez or Derek Lowe ain't happening. HOPING that some career back-up becomes an every day player overnight with Magic Reds Pixy-Dust isn't either.
3 - Don't make up Career Year projections for all other 7 guys in the lineup
4 - try to understand what you are projecting - OPS, RC, VORP, etc are measurable ways to actuate RUNS, PRODUCTION or WINS of individuals, not RBI (which is team dependent) and BA.


I've yet to see anything close, although the Kemp acquisition is a nice idea but it would only solve the CF issue, it really doesn't help us in LF.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BuckU]

Define "fluffy."

And I'll pose this question- don't you wish the Reds had more guys who could produce such fluffy numbers?

What I mean is, looking at a HR/RBI line of 45/105 is nice, but take into account how many runs were left out there that could have been driven in with a simple base hit.

For your second question, no. Watching more than one extremely frustrating player would be difficult. The Reds have plenty of guys who can drive in runs (Votto, Phillips, EE, Bruce), if the lineup card was completed by somebody who had a strategy, we’d be able to see that.

[OUReds]

I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

That's a strawman of the worst sort.

If Dunn leaves I'm not worried about replacing his homeruns, I'm worried about replacing his overall production PERIOD. No matter how it is accomplished.

[BLEEDS]

The Reds have plenty of guys who can drive in runs (Votto, Phillips, EE, Bruce), if the lineup card was completed by somebody who had a strategy, we’d be able to see that.

Two "struggling" rookies, a Roller-Coaster up and down 3b-man, and a 2b who can't hit RHP to save his life and has more GIDP's in the last year and a half than Dunn has his ENTIRE CAREER.

Yes, they have POTENTIAL, but they are not anywhere NEAR consistent enough. WITH Dunn, we're a .729 OPS team, without him we're WAY under that....

WE NEED the Consistency of an Adam Dunn to be able to complement those 4 guys in particular. Getting rid of that, you are asking for a Miracle to produce runs - who do you think those guys are DRIVING IN?!?! HOW does Dunn get 100 runs every year? Without his OBP, those guys have NOBODY to drive in.

Some people just don't get it - it's not just his HITS, HR's and RBI's, it's that he GETS ON BASE for others. He gets on base 30+ more times a year than Brandon Phillips. Does that not mean anything to you people?!?!? 40 HRs leave 60 RUNS for his teammates to drive in, which is remarkable given that he's batting 5th in this lineup. IMAGINE if he was batting 2/3/4?!?!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Lockdwn11]

Another Adam Dunn thread it's just like clock work:thumbdown

[I(heart)Freel]

I'll reiterate why Dunn being homerun-dependent is a bad thing. (Homeruns aren't, but nice try OUReds.)

Because the event happens 7.5 percent of the time. Per my orig post.

I'm sorry for being so micro here, but that's what I do when I watch nearly every pitch of every game. This isn't aggregate, end-of-year stat dissection. It's in-game. It's game to game. It's pounding my head against the wall, saying "why dear Jesus why did we lose this game?" every night.

And I'm not excusing the rest of the team. The rest of the lineup is certainly to fault as well. But during the trading deadline week, I tend to focus in on pending free agents and ask... should we trade or hang on to them? Like it or not, Dunn is the top earner and a pending free agent. So yea... he's under my microscope.

I'm just thinking that the Reds shouldn't pay $15 million to someone who can seemingly only drive in runs using an event that happens 7.5 percent of the times he walks to the plate.