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Thread: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    After reading some quotes from Bob Castellini and Walt Jocketty, my guess is Adam Dunn will be signed to a long term contract after the season. Call me an optimist but I think he's going to stick around. Castellini loves the guy and Jocketty is a smart guy, he knows how important Dunn is to this team. Rumors today were that Jocketty was asking for three premium prospects in return for Dunn. That tells me how much Jocketty values Dunner. And why not? You can pencil him in for a 160 games, .380+ OBP, 40+ homeruns, 100+ walks, and 100+ RBI just about every year. Again, I could be wrong but I'm feeling pretty confident right now that Dunn will be back next year.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Works for me!
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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    I'm with ya, OBM. I have to think that if the Reds had plans to let Dunn walk that they would have just taken the best offer they could get and would have sent him on his way today.

    We're hearing a lot about "trying to win as many games as we can," and while a good deal of that is PR speak, we also know that letting Dunn walk for two compensation picks in next year's draft isn't going to do anything to directly help this team in 2009. Additionally, I believe Dunn is approaching pure Moneyball Player status in that there seems to be quite a few teams undervaluing him in the market. And that's fine with me, because that would just increase the chances of the Reds signing him to a very nice deal that doesn't necessarily hinder the team financially all that much.

    Lastly, if they offered to toss in a no-trade to Dunn in a long-term deal, I have to believe they could land him for four years at a very reasonable salary. It seems to me Dunn values loyalty and security of staying in one place; he hates trade rumors and doesn't want to be traded and the no-trade would essentially free him of having to deal with that each July.
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Works for me as well. This team would be borderline unwatchable without Dunn.

    I think Votto and Bruce will improve immensely this offseason. Dunn's return would provide them some needed cover as they improve.

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    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    I agree. I assume that the Reds had better theoretical offers than that of the draft pick compensation received if they lost Dunn to free agency. Thus, they must at the very least be very open to resigning Dunn long term, otherwise they would have accepted the better package of prospects. Perhaps Dunn's demands will be too high, but it's clear to me that the front office values Dunn's contributions highly, and I expect that a competitve offer will be made. With that said, I think Dunn wants to stay in Cincy and if said competitve offer is made, perhaps with the security Cyclone suggests that Dunn will be happy to sign and bypass the potential bidding war in free agency. If Jocketty weren't comfortable shelling out the big bucks for Dunn, he would have been traded.

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    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    After reading some quotes from Bob Castellini and Walt Jocketty, my guess is Adam Dunn will be signed to a long term contract after the season. Call me an optimist but I think he's going to stick around. Castellini loves the guy and Jocketty is a smart guy, he knows how important Dunn is to this team. Rumors today were that Jocketty was asking for three premium prospects in return for Dunn. That tells me how much Jocketty values Dunner. And why not? You can pencil him in for a 160 games, .380+ OBP, 40+ homeruns, 100+ walks, and 100+ RBI just about every year. Again, I could be wrong but I'm feeling pretty confident right now that Dunn will be back next year.
    I donít think that his comment here regarding the Griffey trade, bodes well for the Reds being able to resign him.

    But he's going to place where they're in first place. He probably feels likes he's a lot more wanted over there.

    "I knew this year that probably one of us would be gone, if not both. It's not something out of the blue. This is a business. He's going to a good place."

    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...cincinnati.com
    I believe that his agent will direct him toward the better offers and to where his client has a chance to shine, with a winning team.

    I believe that he will be wanting to go to a team that has a good chance to win.

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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post

    I believe that his agent will direct him toward the better offers and to where his client has a chance to shine, with a winning team.

    I believe that he will be wanting to go to a team that has a good chance to win.
    This seems right to me. I really don't understand what happened with Dunn today, must have been a lack of good offers, but now I expect him to leave this winter with the Reds getting draft choices. I expected a trade so the Reds could get some mature prospects back. Now, odds are, they'll get draft picks.

    Most free agents take the best offer. I think Dunn will take the best offer. If it is in his home state of Texas, or on a big market winner, or whatever, these are possible benefits. But bottom line, this is Dunn's chance to cash in on his success and he will undoubtedly do so.

    It is possible that the Reds and Dunn have a deal in place only to be formalized after the season. But if not, I don't see why he should just stay. He hates trade rumors? He's loyal and likes stability? These are not reasons for him to forego his payday.

    Forget what the Reds and the fans want. Having worked his whole career for the right to offer his services to the highest bidder in the open market, why should Dunn just agree to stay?
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-31-2008 at 09:48 PM.

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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Pretty much looks right to me. In fact, I heard Jocketty slip a bit on SportsTalk tonight with Daugherty. He said how trading Griffey allows the Reds to take a look at their "outfield for next year." He then quickly corrected himself and said "Well, if we re-sign Dunn." But if you heard the interview, it sounded like he was being matter-of-fact about signing Dunn.

    Now, if Adam all of a sudden wants $20 million after his latest power surge, forget about it. But I am still hoping something can be done for $16 mil a year. I would be shocked at this point if Dunn isn't signed to a LTC. We might have to sweat it out, but I think he will be back. I don't think older guys like Jocketty and Castellini are going to be OK with getting draft picks for Dunn. They want to win now. And now means 2009 and 2010.

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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    I think Griff's absence will benefit AD in the long run.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'm with ya, OBM. I have to think that if the Reds had plans to let Dunn walk that they would have just taken the best offer they could get and would have sent him on his way today.
    Unless their best offer wasn't as compelling as the 2 picks they're going to get if he rejects arbitration.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Unless their best offer wasn't as compelling as the 2 picks they're going to get if he rejects arbitration.
    Maybe, but Walt strikes me as a guy who would prefer names and bodies now then 2 complete unknowns 10 months from now.
    Go Gators!

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    Maybe, but Walt strikes me as a guy who would prefer names and bodies now then 2 complete unknowns 10 months from now.
    Then cloudy days for the Reds......
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #13
    You're soaking in it! MartyFan's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    I think Griff's absence will benefit AD in the long run.
    I couldn't agree more...I don't think that Junior was bad for Dunn in the same way Kearns was...I think that with Junior here, Dunn could always stand in the background...I think Junior being gone helps him grow up and helps him realize he is the veteran presence on this team.
    "Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."

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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Unless their best offer wasn't as compelling as the 2 picks they're going to get if he rejects arbitration.
    Tampa Bay was looking for a big bat by going after Bay, then Dunn. They came up empty-handed in both, though it doesn't sound like for lack of trying. I have to believe that whatever it is they were offering was a little bit better than the two picks the Reds will get via compensation.
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    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: My prediction is Adam Dunn is signed long-term

    Under the assumption that truly Dunn has not been spoken to about the possibility of signing a LT extension, the lack of saavy by the Reds in this entire process is outrageous...we've got 1 of 3 situations...

    1. The Reds really wanted to trade him, but based on the offers available came to the conclusion that 2 draft picks was a better alternative...
    2. The Reds really are settled on locking him up long-term...
    3. The Reds have no clue about what they want/need to do with the "Dunn Conundrum"

    Well if it's #1, my team is being run by folks who are ignorant as to the value Dunn brings TO OUR TEAM...IMO, I think Castellini is in this camp...doesn't "get" Dunn, listens to the very vocal ignorant camp around this franchise that refuses to accept the most logical of premises regarding the deep offensive impact Dunn has on the game (and I speak to this because my greatest area of growth in terms of understanding the game more objectively has led me to see Dunn as a necessary component of the Reds vision for a winning team).

    However, this is more encouraging than #2, which indicates my team has no clue that it might matter to Dunn to actually feel wanted...we could have spent this season quietly, privately not only negotiating with Dunn, but massaging the big guy's esteem and helping him to feel a major part of a franchise vision and yet he clearly is dangling in the wind (and based on comments he's made on the trade deadlines, he HATES dealing with uncertainty like this)...even if the numbers still needed to be worked out, you don't think the Reds would have put themselves in a better negotiation if Dunn actually felt communicated with and appreciated more demonstratively by upper management...geez, I'm not asking Jock to put the offers in the paper, but it's not a stretch for me to consider that I don't think it's just going to be a money decision for Dunn and that actually feeling valued by those running this franchise would matter to him...the deafening silence in this area speaks, no...shouts otherwise...

    Of course maybe we're selecting box #3, which quite honestly is the scariest of propositions...consider having an organizational plan where you have NO FREAKING CLUE what you are going to do with your most discernable baseball asset...this paralysis of decision-making either made it impossible to stimulate the trade market or is driving up the cost to resign him since a deal to extend him could have been done at any time this spring/summer...instead as he has a tremendous July (and hopefully the rest of the season based on continued BABIP improvement to the norm) the price tag continues to rise...

    And of course, if you DO believe we don't know what we want to do, can you really feel good about the same group of decision makers drafting the 2 replacement players we would receive for compensation???...no, me neither...

    I actually have not yet found the depth of despair of a fan to believe this team capable of being so stupid not to be able to work out a 4/65 type deal and to let him walk...

    But the nights still early


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
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