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Thread: Payroll in 2009

  1. #1
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Payroll in 2009

    Free Agents OFF THE BOOKS (assuming nobody re-signs):

    Dunn.....$13,000,000
    Griffey....$12,000,000
    Patterson..$3,000,000
    Affeldt.....$3,000,000
    Weathers...$2,750,000
    Ross....$2,525,000 *($3,500,000 club option for '09 - is there a buyout?)
    Valentin....$1,325,000
    Fogg....$1,000,000
    Bako....$750,000
    Mercker....$600,000
    Hairston....$500,000

    total: -$39,910,000




    RAISES (from 2008 to 2009):

    1. Arroyo.....$4,975,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
    2. Harang.....$4,250,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
    3. Cordero....$3,375,000 (no raise from 2009 to 2010)
    4. Phillips.....$1,250,000 ($2M raise from 2009 to 2010)
    5. Gonzalez...$1,250,000 (500K buyout in 2010)
    6. Freel........$1,000,000 (last year of contract)

    total: +$16,100,000 (+$5,500,000 more from 2009 to 2010)


    ARB ELIGIBLE RAISES:

    7. Encarnacion...guess: $4,000,000
    8. Lincoln....guess: $1,000,000
    9. Majewski...guess: $1,000,000
    10. Belisle....guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)
    11. Coffey...guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)


    total possible: +$8,000,000


    ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES (ELIGIBLE FOR ARB AFTER 2009):

    12. Bray....$50,000*
    13. Keppinger....$50,000*
    14. Hopper....$50,000*
    15. Burton....$50,000*

    total possible: +$200,000

    *based on Encarnacion's 2008 salary of $440,000.


    ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES:

    16. Masset...$12,500
    17. Volquez...$12,500
    18. Bailey....$12,500
    19. Votto....$12,500
    20. Cueto....$12,500
    21. Bruce....$12,500

    total possible: +$75,000


    TOTAL RAISES: +$24,375,000
    TOTAL OFF THE BOOKS: -$39,910,000

    DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000



    So, not including re-signing Dunn, Affeldt, Weathers, Ross, or God forbid, Patterson the Reds will knock $15,535,000 off of the 2008 payroll once arbitration and raises are added and free agent contracts are knocked off the books.

    Essentially, the Reds have $15.5 M to play with in FA to break even. That may all be used up on Dunn, however it is possible to re-sign Dunn at $15-16M per and still have the payroll remain relatively the same, even with the huge raises due for Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and Cordero (+$13.85M).

    My point is that if you re-sign Dunn ($16M per), Affeldt ($3M for one year), and Hairston ($2M for one year) the team payroll will only be roughly $5M more in 2009 than it is 2008. Freeing Arroyo or Cordero's contract just may be the difference in bringing in a C.C. Sabathia or standing pat once Dunn, Affeldt, and Hairston are re-signed.
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 08-01-2008 at 05:17 PM.

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  3. #2
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Great post.

    The point I would make, and which I have made ad nauseam, is that this team can't buy enough talent to be competitive. As of today we have roughly $15M less than we we spent in '08 committed, and that doesn't include Dunn. Add Dunn, or even comparable production priced appropriately distributed elsewhere, and you haven't come out ahead. The way this team is set up, the young guys have to continue to improve or we're dead in the water.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-01-2008 at 05:34 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #3
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Great post.

    The point I would make, and which I have made ad nauseam, is that this team can't buy enough talent to be competitive. As of today we have roughly $15M less than we we spent in '08 committed, and that doesn't include Dunn. Add Dunn, or even comparable production priced appropriately distributed elsewhere, and you haven't come out ahead. The way this team is set up, the young guys have to continue to improve or we're dead in the water.
    Isn't that the gambit of every team betting the house on youth? Incidentally, I'm not all that sold on this team's youth (outside of Cueto and Volquez).

    My guess is they'll take the draft picks for Dunn and try to dig up an Edmonds in the offseason.

  5. #4
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    The Reds owe Mike Stanton $500k next year for not picking up his option. Same goes with Juan Castro - that's $100k for not picking up his option. The Reds are also on the hook for $2mil of Junior's $4mil option. Ross has a $350k buyout next year.

    The Reds also have over $8.75mil in sunk costs that won't be re-occuring in 2009.
    -$2.5mil signing bonus for Arroyo
    -$250k option for Rheal Cormier
    -$3mil for Mike Stanton
    -$975k for Castro
    -$1.85mil for Hatteberg
    Last edited by jmcclain19; 08-01-2008 at 06:57 PM. Reason: Left off Hatte

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    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    RAISES (from 2008 to 2009):

    1. Arroyo.....$4,975,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
    2. Harang.....$4,250,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
    3. Cordero....$3,375,000 (no raise from 2009 to 2010)
    4. Phillips.....$1,250,000 ($2M raise from 2009 to 2010)
    5. Gonzalez...$1,250,000 (500K buyout in 2010)
    6. Freel........$1,000,000 (last year of contract)

    total: +$16,100,000 (+$5,500,000 more from 2009 to 2010)


    ARB ELIGIBLE RAISES:

    7. Encarnacion...guess: $4,000,000
    8. Lincoln....guess: $1,000,000
    9. Majewski...guess: $1,000,000
    10. Belisle....guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)
    11. Coffey...guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)


    total possible: +$8,000,000


    ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES (ELIGIBLE FOR ARB AFTER 2009):

    12. Bray....$50,000*
    13. Keppinger....$50,000*
    14. Hopper....$50,000*
    15. Burton....$50,000*

    total possible: +$200,000

    *based on Encarnacion's 2008 salary of $440,000.


    ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES:

    16. Masset...$12,500
    17. Volquez...$12,500
    18. Bailey....$12,500
    19. Votto....$12,500
    20. Cueto....$12,500
    21. Bruce....$12,500

    total possible: +$75,000


    TOTAL RAISES: +$24,375,000
    TOTAL OFF THE BOOKS: -$39,910,000

    DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000



    So, not including re-signing Dunn, Affeldt, Weathers, Ross, or God forbid, Patterson the Reds will knock $15,535,000 off of the 2008 payroll once arbitration and raises are added and free agent contracts are knocked off the books.

    Essentially, the Reds have $15.5 M to play with in FA to break even. That may all be used up on Dunn, however it is possible to re-sign Dunn at $15-16M per and still have the payroll remain relatively the same, even with the huge raises due for Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and Cordero (+$13.85M).

    My point is that if you re-sign Dunn ($16M per), Affeldt ($3M for one year), and Hairston ($2M for one year) the team payroll will only be roughly $5M more in 2009 than it is 2008. Freeing Arroyo or Cordero's contract just may be the difference in bringing in a C.C. Sabathia or standing pat once Dunn, Affeldt, and Hairston are re-signed.
    Free Agents OFF THE BOOKS (assuming nobody re-signs):

    Dunn.....$13,000,000
    Griffey....$12,000,000
    Patterson..$3,000,000
    Affeldt.....$3,000,000
    Weathers...$2,750,000
    Ross....$2,525,000 *($3,500,000 club option for '09 - is there a buyout?)
    Valentin....$1,325,000
    Fogg....$1,000,000
    Bako....$750,000
    Mercker....$600,000
    Hairston....$500,000

    total: -$39,910,000
    These eleven players will have to be replaced and have replacement cost that we don't know yet.

    Plus

    Stanton
    Hatteberg
    Castro

    Also come off

    DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000 / 11 $1,412,272.72 to spend per replacement player if I interpretred your work correctly.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 08-01-2008 at 07:01 PM.

  7. #6
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    I'm honestly not worried about the payroll. If Jocketty wants to go after a FA he feels can help the team win right now, Castellini will sign off on the deal and thus raise payroll.

    I'm far more worried about the "who" than the "if".
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  8. #7
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Great post.

    The point I would make, and which I have made ad nauseam, is that this team can't buy enough talent to be competitive. As of today we have roughly $15M less than we we spent in '08 committed, and that doesn't include Dunn. Add Dunn, or even comparable production priced appropriately distributed elsewhere, and you haven't come out ahead. The way this team is set up, the young guys have to continue to improve or we're dead in the water.
    Yes, and in addition the investors/owners have to adequately fund the team. Otherwise the general manager will be compelled to fill out the rest of team with filler and fodder. Increase in payroll reduction in talent.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 08-01-2008 at 07:00 PM.

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    One thing about the numbers. I would figure Dunn to only get an incremental increase of about $5M ($18M in year 1) for 2009. So, that really leaves about $10M out there in comparison to this year, unless I'm missing a factor.

  10. #9
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    The team is under funded for the cost of players in the year 2008-2009 for league average players to upgrade the team.

    This is one of the barriers that the general managers have been having to deal with back to the year 2000 forward.

    The funding allows for one or two expensive players, (not really) and then leaves a small portion or percentage of the budget to try to fill out the rest of the roster, then the team ends up with too many below league average players, then we see a RS RA - DIFF in competition against the other well funded teams that have the player resources in a combination of major league level and minor league feeder system in tact.

    Payroll goes up, but not the overall quality of players for the Reds

  11. #10
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    One thing about the numbers. I would figure Dunn to only get an incremental increase of about $5M ($18M in year 1) for 2009. So, that really leaves about $10M out there in comparison to this year, unless I'm missing a factor.
    Good luck Walt.

    The other problem with the numbers are like when we compare player stats, and don't compare them against the other players, it is like that here when we don't compare the Reds payroll to their immediate competitors in the Central to get a clearer and more accurate picture regarding competing.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 08-01-2008 at 07:17 PM.

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    These eleven players will have to be replaced and have replacement cost that we don't know yet.

    Plus

    Stanton
    Hatteberg
    Castro

    Also come off

    DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000 / 11 $1,412,272.72 to spend per replacement player if I interpretred your work correctly.
    I numbered the re-signs 1-21. Then, with the addition of Affeldt, Hairston, and Dunn, that comes to 24.

    I was basing the rest on players currently on the roster, so I excluded Stanton, Castro, and Hats.

    Also, to answer jmcclain19, I thought the White Sox and Reds split the rest of Junior's contract. So, the way I look at it is the Reds pay the rest of 2008 ($4M) and Chicago is on the hook for the $4M buyout.
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 08-01-2008 at 09:03 PM.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    The team is under funded for the cost of players in the year 2008-2009 for league average players to upgrade the team.

    This is one of the barriers that the general managers have been having to deal with back to the year 2000 forward.

    The funding allows for one or two expensive players, (not really) and then leaves a small portion or percentage of the budget to try to fill out the rest of the roster, then the team ends up with too many below league average players, then we see a RS RA - DIFF in competition against the other well funded teams that have the player resources in a combination of major league level and minor league feeder system in tact.

    Payroll goes up, but not the overall quality of players for the Reds
    This is exactly why this team needed to dump salary two years ago and start collecting prospects and top tier talent in the draft. If they aren't going to dedicate serious capital to the roster as it stands, they have no shot at competing.

  14. #13
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Also, to answer jmcclain19, I thought the White Sox and Reds split the rest of Junior's contract. So, the way I look at it is the Reds pay the rest of 2008 ($4M) and Chicago is on the hook for the $4M buyout.
    I don't think you can do that though because they are two seperate budgets: the 2008 budget and the 2009 budget. You gotta put $2 million towards next year...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  15. #14
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    This is exactly why this team needed to dump salary two years ago and start collecting prospects and top tier talent in the draft. If they aren't going to dedicate serious capital to the roster as it stands, they have no shot at competing.
    That's right or they have to build up through the minors. They have not done that since the, well, you can track the payrolls I have posted the years and comparisons on here, even if the numbers aren't exact, and they probably are not since teams don't disclose much, the numbers will still be some sort of picture for us to see a comparison.

    I left some of those links for you on the other thread, http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...t=70591&page=6

    after I got myself up to speed to see what occured back and then coming forward on that other thread, they did the sell off back with Brad Kullman, and they have been trying to rebuild and retool ever since with an under funded budget and without the minor league system to support them. I wish it did not take so long to research then to put it into some sort of reasonable order and then though, it becomes information overload for any of us to read on a message board, I tried to put it into some sort of order, but it is too long.

    That is why I was glad to see traderumor back on the board, and I was hoping that he would take some time to write about it, because he is a much better writer and he knows what we are all getting at with the payroll, percentage of payroll going to player X and how that effects the present and future, along with the funding for the minors, and other capital outlays like the move to AZ etc.

    It becomes owners being unrealisticly expecting A LOT from their GMs, in the face of the competition. He also can explain better than I ( I hope)how the roots of the problem for the organization started back in the Bowden/Lindner era and has worked its way forward.

    I am hoping that Jocketty will be wiser, and do a hybrid combination of the minor league and prospect with wise trades also, FA, and cash.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 08-01-2008 at 11:10 PM.

  16. #15
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Payroll in 2009

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I don't think you can do that though because they are two seperate budgets: the 2008 budget and the 2009 budget. You gotta put $2 million towards next year...
    No you don't. $4M is $4M.

    He is owed $4M this year on his $12M and they have a $4M buyout.

    Either way, the Reds are out only $4M of the $8M he is owed.

    Why couldn't you just look at it as $4M now and $4 off the books in 2009?
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 08-01-2008 at 11:21 PM.


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