From Hal's blog: Scouts opinion on the current Reds team

[OnBaseMachine]

A view from the outside

By Hal McCoy | Thursday, August 7, 2008, 09:32 PM
Latest comment

A man I have known a long time, a scout for years and years who has watched the Cincinnati Reds, asked me a question before Thursday’s game:

“Have you ever seen a Reds team so lifeless, so dead, so disinterested?”

I answered honestly: “Never. This team looks like nine mannequins, nine fire hydrants, nine pine trees at Christmas time, nine que-tips in a stand-up box.

It’s the old which comes first, the chicken or the egg? In this case, which comes first, the losing or the lethargy? The lethargy or the losing? When you lose 11 of 13, you not only look bad, you ARE bad.

Actually, these days the Reds play like chickens with egg on their faces.

The long-time observer said, “I saw Homer Bailey three years ago and thought good things about him. Iee him now and there is no fire, no consistency and no sense of confidence. He used to have the hammer - a big, breaking curve. That’s gone. The last time he pitched he threw it for one strike. One.”

Another guy in the know, from out of town, said he couldn’t believe the abuse Adam Dunn gets. He hears it when he sits in the stands.

“Now that Ken Griffey Jr. is gone, if they let him go those same people are going to whine about it,” he said. “They better keep him. They need his power and they need him because they have so many young players.”

And another wrinkled his nose when Brandon Phillips was mentioned.

“Nice talent, but I can’t stand the guy. Don’t like his attitude. He does things to make the other team mad. And I couldn’t believe the stuff he said last week about wanting to be the face of the team, the captain, the leader. Very next game he didn’t run out a ground ball. Some leader.”

And so it goes with the intreprid warriors on the banks of the Ohio.

A defeat Thursday was a given. Roy Oswalt. 20-1 before the night began and 21-1 after. The Reds can’t beat him when he is ordinary, and he is ordinary this year and was very ordinary tonight. The Reds got nine hits off him in seven innings, but one run.

What the heck is it, anyway?

The question of the night: How did he lose the one game?

Asked how one pitcher can be 21-1 against his team, manager Dusty Baker said with a shrug, “A 5-0 lead doesn’t hurt? Psychologically, he knows he can beat us, psychologically his team knows it and, probably, psychologically our team knows it. Plus a lot of great pitching and a lot of luck.

Mostly great pitching, but on this night he was eminently beatable.

It isn’t only Oswalt Syndrome that infects this Reds team — losers in 11 of their last 13, 12 games under .500 and 17 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs.

Although rookie Jay Bruce doubled in the sixth, extending his hitting streak to 11 games, he went 1 for 5, dropped a fly ball for an error and inadmisably tried to go from second to third on a ground ball and was thrown out.

“A tough night for Jay,” said Baker. “A tough night once in the field and a tough night once on the bases. Call it youthful exuberance and he was as upset as anybody. He knew he made a mistake and you won’t see him make it any time in the future because he is a smart ballplayer. Sometimes you have to learn the hard way.”

Oswalt usually downplays his mastery over the Reds, perhaps fearing he’ll jinx it, but did issue an indictment with the Reds are often charged.

“I threw a lot of pitches in the first inning, but when we scored a lot of runs it seemed they began swinging early in the count,” he said.

Gee whiz. Where have we heard that one before? Oh, about every night.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs...incinnatireds/

[Edskin]

Anyone who thinks the Reds stink because of the "chemistry" stuff is off-base.

Anyone who thinks the "chemistry" stuff has no bearing on why the Reds stink is also off-base.

Hal makes a good point about the chicken-egg thing. It's hard to decipher.

However, the more you lose, the harder it becomes to win-- at some point I do believe it even goes beyond talent, managing, etc.. at a certain point, I believe an organization can become SO associated with losing, that it really infests everything about the organization-- from the players to the front office to the fans.

The Cincinnati Reds are a lifeless, pathetic organization. Quite possibly one of the 10 worst of all the major sports. That's saying something. And that isn't easy to fix.

[WVRedsFan]

Anyone who thinks the Reds stink because of the "chemistry" stuff is off-base.

Anyone who thinks the "chemistry" stuff has no bearing on why the Reds stink is also off-base.

Hal makes a good point about the chicken-egg thing. It's hard to decipher.

However, the more you lose, the harder it becomes to win-- at some point I do believe it even goes beyond talent, managing, etc.. at a certain point, I believe an organization can become SO associated with losing, that it really infests everything about the organization-- from the players to the front office to the fans.

The Cincinnati Reds are a lifeless, pathetic organization. Quite possibly one of the 10 worst of all the major sports. That's saying something. And that isn't easy to fix.

Ed:

Chemistry has a lot to do with who puts together the roster. The Reds have been obsessed with bullpen pitching for two years. Yes, our bullpen was horrible, so we spent almost every resource in getting that right while depending on the minors for replacements at other positions. Wenow have a decent bullpen. Hallelujah. On the starting front, we have two rookies (I still consider Volquez a rookie since he hasn't pitched much), a chamelion (Arroyo), Josh Fogg, and Homer Bailey. All five sport over 5 ERA's over the near term. Yes, pitching is expensive and there wasn't much out there, but Josh Fogg? Your ace goes down and what happens? You're seeing it now.

Then you bank on guys like Corey Patterson, Junior Griffey, Brandon Phillips, Edwin E., and two other rookies (Votto and Bruce) to be successful immediately. How foolish. Patterson came to spring traning without a team, Griffey was aging, Phillips is a hacker, Edwin is on and off, and Votto and Bruce are rookies. In the meantime, two guys you count on (and I don't know why) go down with injuries as well as your ace starting pitcher. Poor planning. Then, through all of this, you declare you're not that far off just like before (remember when it was stated that Paul Wilson wa the key and then it was Majewski and Bray, and finally Bruce and Votto--and then it was Thompson and Burton?). We finally gave up on Wilson, Majewski has been a dissappointment, Bray is a relief pitcher with his ups and downs, and Bruce and Votto are still learning. Recipe for disaster. Then we carry three catchers who are average at best (Ross with his spectacular OBP, Bako with his horrilbe OPS, and Valintin, who probably wouldn't be on any other roster, and you have the crux of the problem.

For those who want to indict Dusty Baker and Walt Jockkety, I just say this. Baker was a horrible mistake and Jocketty is innocent. It will take all of WJ's magic to correct this team. Dusty will be successful if Walt corrects it. But, as of now, I don't see it. The sins of the past will take a long time to get to redemption.

[oneupper]

It's not like this is the first bad team the REDS put on the field in the last few years and its probably not the worst.

But it is, IMO, definitely the most unwatchable. I like winning (who doesn't), but I also want to be entertained. No personality, few good "stories".
A "challenged" manager who doesn't even make the strategy element of the games interesting. Blech...

[camisadelgolf]

I agree with you, oneupper--the entertainment value is down from previous years--but the talent on the team has me, personally, more interested than in some of the past previous years.

Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Edwin Encarnacion, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, Bill Bray, Jay Bruce, Josh Roenicke, Joey Votto, etc. are all young (26 years old or younger at the start of 2009), but right now, they should be going through the rough years of their career. Theoretically, they will all be entering their primes in a couple years--I just hope the organization is smart enough to realize that and keep them all around. There are some growing pains, but I feel like that will help me enjoy the team more when things finally come around (and they will, unless the team makes some very stupid moves).

Bob Castellini always said this team was being built to win as soon as possible, but I think it would stupid of us not to recognize that this team was, thanks to Wayne Krivsky and a little bit to Dan O'Brien, built with the future in mind--probably more so than the present.

[wheels]

".......Losing. Is a disease. Much like syphilis."

[Sea Ray]

Suffice to say this team cannot go through the off season status quo. First of all Dusty has to look in the mirror and find out if he still has the desire and energy to manage this young team. He has looked as lackadaisical as the team. We really can't fire him but Cast does need to have a heart to heart with him.

Assuming he does want to manage, he has to accept coaching changes. Guys like Jacoby and Pole have to go. They've blown it. They have coached no one to a year above their career norm.

Finally they need to call in some youthful reinforcements. Bring up Dickerson, Hanigan and a few others just to change the energy on this team if nothing else. Why are they hanging onto Paul Bako anyway?

[princeton]

We really can't fire him

baloney

[Sea Ray]

baloney

OK, I'll expound on that. We can't fire him for a few reasons.

First of all he can argue it's not his team. He inherited a poorly put together team.

Secondly Cast would have a hard time attracting another experienced manager if they see us cut Dusty after only one year

Thirdly it would cost Cast a lot of dough.

I take it you wouldn't have hired Dusty in the first place and I agree with you but it would be difficult to fire him at this point.

[princeton]

OK, I'll expound on that. We can't fire him for a few reasons.

First of all he can argue it's not his team. He inherited a poorly put together team.

Secondly Cast would have a hard time attracting another experienced manager if they see us cut Dusty after only one year

Thirdly it would cost Cast a lot of dough.

I take it you wouldn't have hired Dusty in the first place and I agree with you but it would be difficult to fire him at this point.

it's easy to fire someone. As to your reasons:

1. he can't just make an "argument." it's not his decision. Most importantly, he may have given up on team, which is never ever ever allowed.

2. Jocketty has developed a lot of credibility in the industry. His last manager still hasn't been fired.

3. Dusty's a sunk cost. The money that it would cost Cast depends now on who they hire

if Jocketty's got an idea for a replacement, he should get it done.

if he was smart, Jocketty would have negotiated the right to make a lot of new hires this winter before he signed on with Cast. If we're throwing $15mill+ at three amateurs this summer, then we've surely got money for better coaching throughout the organization.

[Cooper]

This is the 2nd mention this week where Brandon Phillips was held up as a leader and the person with the opinion said "no".

Earlier this week Bronson Arroyo was interviewed on WLW and was asked who would be th enew leader. Phillips name was thrown out there -but Bronson went out of his way to report the new Reds clubhouse leader would not be Phillips. He mentioned Votto or Bruce.

Phillips is a wonderful talent and one of the few good things to watch on this team-but it appears he's not the leader of the clubhouse. The media may think he should be, but I don't think that's going to happen. I think Votto may the the man for the job.

[Raisor]

I think Votto may the the man for the job.

Who's going to follow a Canadian anywhere?

[NJReds]

Of all the negatives in the scout's assessment, one thing stood out to me. The Reds can't afford to lose Dunn. He may wear the bullseye in the view of the fans and the media, but in at least in this one scout's opinion, he's part of the cure, not the disease.

[Chip R]

Who's going to follow a Canadian anywhere?

Other Canadians?

[NJReds]

Who's going to follow a Canadian anywhere?