Erardi on defense

[Ahhhorsepoo]

its actually 1.351, we are going to go with a whole year number, and lets use the latest year..because in the hot days of summer(august) the ball flies.. according to ESPN.. soo that puts us at 20.3.. but when you also see that from florida a park factor right at 1.. and boston.. a park factor at .876 you can clearly see that math puts him at 20 or more.. if you want number "proof" from "stats" there ya go.............

Boston 15 homeruns.. is equivalent to 17.10 in "average parks".. and then 17.10 times the 1.351 park factor for the reds..... gives you over 23...
Florida 15 homeruns.. is equivalent to 15 in "average" parks.. and then 15 times 1.351 for the reds put you over 20.. there ya go...

[redsbuckeye]

its actually 1.351, we are going to go with a whole year number, and lets use the latest year..because in the hot days of summer(august) the ball flies.. according to ESPN.. soo that puts us at 20.3.. but when you also see that from florida a park factor right at 1.. and boston.. a park factor at .876 you can clearly see that math puts him at 20 or more.. if you want number "proof" from "stats" there ya go.............

Boston 15 homeruns.. is equivalent to 17.10 in "average parks".. and then 17.10 times the 1.351 park factor for the reds..... gives you over 23...
Florida 15 homeruns.. is equivalent to 15 in "average" parks.. and then 15 times 1.351 for the reds put you over 20.. there ya go...

The 1.15 was this year's number. I should've used the total since the park was opened in 2003, which is 1.21 (your number was just from last year). And remember, only half his games come at home. The other half will more or less be averaged out by playing at all different parks, so the 7.5 for 81 away games doesn't change. The 7.5 from home games goes to 9.075 for a total of 17.25. 2.25 homers change because of the ballpark. Not 25 (your original number, which you keep slinking away from). I'm sure someone could do a more in depth analisys, but I doubt it'd reveal too much more.

Of course, this is ignoring all the rest of his numbers, which have shown to be pretty poor. And I'd bet good money he wouldn't play 162 games, cutting down on that number anyway.

[kpresidente]

Again, for his career, he averages 15 homers per season if he plays 162 games. If GABP adds one homer, then that's 16. Where do you get this 25 number

16 home runs in 110 games translated to 24 over a full season. Maybe that's where he got it from.

Now I don't think Gonzo would hit that many over a full season, but I think 20 is a reasonable figure. That's good power for a SS.

[redsbuckeye]

16 home runs in 110 games translated to 24 over a full season. Maybe that's where he got it from.

Maybe, except I was getting the 15 number from a full 162 games played.

[kpresidente]

Maybe, except I was getting the 15 number from a full 162 games played.

Right but that's not a GABP.

[redsbuckeye]

Right but that's not a GABP.

Right, that's his career average across all parks played, which I've assumed more or less averages out. Since only 81 games take place a GABP, with a park factor of 1.21 since it opened, his 7.5 homers at home (another assumption that seems reasonable) goes to 9.075 due to GABP's band box status. It's not that big an increase and certainly doesn't get him from 15 to 25 for a regular season (which would almost certainly be less than 162 games anyway).

[kpresidente]

Right, that's his career average across all parks played, which I've assumed more or less averages out. Since only 81 games take place a GABP, with a park factor of 1.21 since it opened, his 7.5 homers at home (another assumption that seems reasonable) goes to 9.075 due to GABP's band box status. It's not that big an increase and certainly doesn't get him from 15 to 25 for a regular season (which would almost certainly be less than 162 games anyway).

Yes, but the park factor doesn't tell the whole story.

Small parks help hitters with gap power (Gonzo, Phillips) more than they do big HR hitters (Dunn), meaning the averages are distorted. Guys with zero power won't feel the effects much either, yet their ABs are figured in as well. Again, my figure is 20 HRs in a full season, even though his 2007 numbers say 24.

Plus, since Gonzo spent most of his career in a pitchers park (Florida), it stands to reason that the 15 HR/162 figure is a low starting point. So start at 17 or 18 to account for that, then figure in GABPs park factor.

[Slyder]

Can we split the difference and just say our middle infielders have 20 HR potential which is pretty good? Dont need to nit pick whos using what stats and take away from the article.

[Ahhhorsepoo]

that would be coming my way.. it wont be "fair"..

there is also a difference between saying a guy can hit 25 homers, from his average of 15 homers in pitcher parks that moves to a hitters park..
to saying Arod can hit 90 from his average of 44 in a park he has played in for 5 years..

I never claimed Gonzo would hit 40 homers.. which is about what you are saying with arods 90..

[redsbuckeye]

Yes, but the park factor doesn't tell the whole story.

Small parks help hitters with gap power (Gonzo, Phillips) more than they do big HR hitters (Dunn), meaning the averages are distorted. Guys with zero power won't feel the effects much either, yet their ABs are figured in as well. Again, my figure is 20 HRs in a full season, even though his 2007 numbers say 24.

Plus, since Gonzo spent most of his career in a pitchers park (Florida), it stands to reason that the 15 HR/162 figure is a low starting point. So start at 17 or 18 to account for that, then figure in GABPs park factor.

It's not 15, it's 7.5 to adjust for home park, assuming equal distribution for home/away games homer production.

Otherwise that's a fair point, one I didn't take into consideration. Florida's park factors are .855 for homers. If we account for both parks adjustments, assuming away games average out to a 1.00 park factor, then we're around 19-20 homers. Still, that's 20% lower from 25 homers (the original number from post #5 which has been backed away from), and we're still assuming he plays all 162 games to hit that.

And, of course, we're ingoring every other stat to just focus on homers and defense, which kind of makes the point moot.

[CWRed]

He's great defensively, I'll give you that. I would just hope for $4 mil and change that we could get defense and respectable offense. Offense provides a lot more wins than defense does, even considering the importance of D at short.

He's great defensively? Um no I think we've already established that he's not.

[redsbuckeye]

He's great defensively? Um no I think we've already established that he's not.

Hm, how about that, I'd neglected to even glance at his defensive numbers, you're right.

So why is he getting paid $4 mil one has to wonder.

[Ahhhorsepoo]

hes had some errors.. but he also gets to far more balls than many SS's around the league..

[levydl]

He had a bad year last year defensively. Worrying about his son probably had something to do with that.

Gonzales is perhaps the fastest I've ever seen at getting the ball off the dirt and into his throwing hand. It's like he's playing an instrument or something. Pretty to watch.