Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 46

Thread: solid progress in farm system

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    solid progress in farm system

    if you go back to the preseason Reds top prospects (I'll take the BA rankings), you see that the following prospects have shown very solid progress in 2008:

    1. Jay Bruce; 3. Joey Votto; 4. Johnny Cueto; 5. Drew Stubbs; 6. Devin Mesoraco; 7. Todd Frazier; 8. Juan Francisco; 9. Josh Roenicke; 11. Kyle Lotzkar; 12. Jared Burton; 13. Chris Valaika; 14. Neftali Soto.

    out of the top 14, only Homer Bailey (no. 2) and Matt Maloney (10) have disappointed a bit, and those two aren't clear washouts-- they just seem to have plateaued. Maloney's been on DL for quite a while.

    I guess that you can argue about Francisco, but he's done better than I had expected. He'll make the jump to AA easily; as for the majors, it'll depend on whether he learns to handle lefthanded pitchers.

    usually the Reds show many more washouts than this. For instance, the 2006 list had 8 next-year stumbles: 6.Travis Wood; 7. Sean Watson;8. Milton Loo; 9. Paul Janish; 11. Cody Strait; 12. Sam LeCure;13. Josh Ravin; 14. James Avery.
    Last edited by princeton; 08-06-2008 at 08:59 AM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,494

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    On this theme a story not getting told enough is what Sean Watson is doing at Chatt. ERA for the year does not tell the story. Here's last ten games: 11.1/4 hits/ 1 ER / 7w's/15 K's. Even with the 5.61 ERA for the year, his batting average against is .196. In July, it was .116 and so far in August it is .083. Needs still to reduce the walks but he is mastering AA very nicely.

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Even with the 5.61 ERA for the year...
    I don't forgive that ERA as easily as you do. but it's good to see a sign of life out of him, and the lefty Viola. a good arm can develop very quickly, as Burton and then Cueto and lately Thompson have shown.

    Reds won't be as highly regarded next year, but Alonso will replace Bruce, Daryl Thompson will replace Cueto, Zack Stewart will replace Burton, Cozart moves up, and Baseball America will wax poetic about Rodriguez and Duran because we'll tell them to. still shy of pitching, but we've been in MUCH worse shape before

    but a key is prospects continuing to not wash out. If that can continue, then Jocketty will have lots of room to maneuver.

  5. #4
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,624

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    "but a key is prospects continuing to not wash out. If that can continue, then Jocketty will have lots of room to maneuver."
    I agree. And if the Reds '08 draft proves productive depth wise the Reds will continue to have solid talent in the pipeline as the more advanced prospects "graduate". Looking at the GCL and Billings, I'm encouraged about that. Alonso and Stewart are the "studs" of the '08 class but there also appears to be good depth.

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I agree. And if the Reds '08 draft proves productive depth wise the Reds will continue to have solid talent in the pipeline as the more advanced prospects "graduate". Looking at the GCL and Billings, I'm encouraged about that. Alonso and Stewart are the "studs" of the '08 class but there also appears to be good depth.

    I'm not seeing that.

    but it's early.

  7. #6
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Nice post princeton. It's good to finally see the farm system producing talent for the first time in years.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,494

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    I'm not forgiving the ERA on Watson, but the point of minor-league-baseball is to improve and he's doing that in a very powerful way. As one who watches a lot of minor-league baseball, it's my view that you simply have to watch the month-by-month numbers because you don't know what they are trying to get a guy to do. With a pitcher it doesn't have to be as radical as trying to teach him a new pitch; it can just be trying to get him to throw in zones where he hasn't been comfortable. Until he gets it, he can get shelled. Watson did this at Sarasota too and it's the best sign of all: the ability to learn and adjust, then succeed at each level. Sometimes that's better than just blowing through the level without ever having to really learn any kind of command--e.g. Homer Bailey.

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,179

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Roenicke, Watson and Stewart seem to all be hard throwing righties who clearly have major league stuff. It's just a question of command, development of another pitch, growth.

    So I still view Watson as a major prospect for the Reds. His stats may not help him with the prospect lists, but all that's irrelevant. Some time next year he'll likely get to AAA and then let's see if his walk numbers and ERA are acceptable by then.

    I feel the same way about Francisco. Major league talent, major prospect. He doesn't walk enough, so let's see if he can improve that area in the two years he likely has left in the minors. Worth following, regardless of the numbers (which are actually pretty good).
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-06-2008 at 11:51 AM.

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I'm not forgiving the ERA on Watson, but the point of minor-league-baseball is to improve and he's doing that in a very powerful way. As one who watches a lot of minor-league baseball, it's my view that you simply have to watch the month-by-month numbers because you don't know what they are trying to get a guy to do. With a pitcher it doesn't have to be as radical as trying to teach him a new pitch; it can just be trying to get him to throw in zones where he hasn't been comfortable. Until he gets it, he can get shelled. Watson did this at Sarasota too and it's the best sign of all: the ability to learn and adjust, then succeed at each level. Sometimes that's better than just blowing through the level without ever having to really learn any kind of command--e.g. Homer Bailey.
    either he has improved, or else he's showing that he's another one of those guys that is so wildly inconsistent that he can never pitch in a big league bullpen.

    I prefer your idea, but it's just a few innings. Ryan Wagner was awesome-- I mean awesome-- for one entire season, doing things that he had NEVER done before. So we thought it was for real, drafted him no. 1, and next year found out that it was just a long good stretch.

    I distrust relievers that aren't consistent. it's too easy to put several good outings in a row-- it's still just a few innings.

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,494

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    There's a difference in development pattern between Watson and Wagner that points in Watson's favor. Wagner, like a reliever version of Bailey, blew through every level, pushed of course by Jimbo's need to look like he could draft somebody too. He never had to learn to throw a slider in the zone. When he got to the majors he got people out until they figured out he couldn't throw that nuclear slider in the zone; they laid off it, he had to throw his pretty ordinary fastball and that was that. Watson has struggled first, then gotten much better, at both Sarasota and Chattanooga. This is a much better pattern. Homer's had to learn it at the major leagues and, if you look carefully at the Gameday record of today's start, there's some good evidence that he's learning.

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    There's a difference in development pattern between Watson and Wagner that points in Watson's favor. Wagner, like a reliever version of Bailey, blew through every level, pushed of course by Jimbo's need to look like he could draft somebody too. He never had to learn to throw a slider in the zone. When he got to the majors he got people out until they figured out he couldn't throw that nuclear slider in the zone; they laid off it, he had to throw his pretty ordinary fastball and that was that. Watson has struggled first, then gotten much better, at both Sarasota and Chattanooga. This is a much better pattern. Homer's had to learn it at the major leagues and, if you look carefully at the Gameday record of today's start, there's some good evidence that he's learning.
    you're using Homer Bailey's "adjustments" as evidence that Sean Watson is going to do better than Ryan Wagner did?

    I'll be thrilled if Watson begins to show consistency let alone dominance, but I'm still keeping in mind that he's had 15 good innings in two years.

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,484

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    The thing about Josh Ravin is that he's still only 20. He doesn't turn 21 until next January while he's playing at a level where most of the players are 22 in Dayton. Ravin's struggling mightily, but so is Mesoraco, who also is 20. Mesoraco is regressing again offensively. He had a good June and first part of July, but since the All-Star break he's back to where he was in April. That's just hitting, of course. He's probably much improved defensively, which at this point is a lot more important. Ravin will be at Dayton for all of next season, too with no worries. He was a 5th Round pick in 2006, but he's still really, really young.

  14. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,484

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I'm not forgiving the ERA on Watson, but the point of minor-league-baseball is to improve and he's doing that in a very powerful way. As one who watches a lot of minor-league baseball, it's my view that you simply have to watch the month-by-month numbers because you don't know what they are trying to get a guy to do. With a pitcher it doesn't have to be as radical as trying to teach him a new pitch; it can just be trying to get him to throw in zones where he hasn't been comfortable. Until he gets it, he can get shelled. Watson did this at Sarasota too and it's the best sign of all: the ability to learn and adjust, then succeed at each level. Sometimes that's better than just blowing through the level without ever having to really learn any kind of command--e.g. Homer Bailey.
    That is very true.

  15. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    da gutta
    Posts
    11

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    dont undaestimeate kevin barker hes got 16 homers.we cud call him up to play firstbase an trade votto for haren.

  16. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Milford, Clifton
    Posts
    1,585

    Re: solid progress in farm system

    Quote Originally Posted by daBeast View Post
    dont undaestimeate kevin barker hes got 16 homers.we cud call him up to play firstbase an trade votto for haren.
    Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25