I took UC at +21. I really do not see the Cats losing this one by that much. I'm still holding out hope for an upset, which I think is a real possibility.
I'm going to put 100 bucks on that 21 point spread.
Go Cats, pretend it's a bowl game and the Sooners should get smoked!
Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7
I think that's the perfect spread. Oklahoma is scary talented, as much as USC, Florida, Ohio State, and Georgia. And in the regular season...especially at home...they play like a USC, Florida...They win and win big.
I don't expect this to be a game past halftime. At best UC scores late to beat the spread.
"I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute
Goodluck to the Bearcats though...I'll be pulling for you for sure.
Oklahoma has 2 home losses since 2000. A third Saturday would make my year. Seriously. Odds are they'll lose but Brian Kelly knows what he's doing, just watch. He'll have something up his sleeve in this one.
FWIW, back in the day I worked a restaurant that also functioned as the "call center" for a couple of east coast bookies (just consider the usefulness of having seven incoming phone lines!).
I think the early college season was always the time when points spreads were good bets. There are a lot of unknowns at the beginning of the season and it always surprised me that bookies were offering such wide spreads. My guess is they must have made money by banking on a lot of sentimental bets from students and alumni who think their podunk school will pull off the 100 year performance.
Not that I took any of these calls, of course. I just overheard a lot of talk.
"UC and 21! You have to be nuts. I'll take it."
Next Reds manager, second shooter. --Confirmed on Redszone.
Since 2000 (2nd year of Stoops) OU is 50-2 at home.
The AVERAGE Margin of victory in those games? 29.48
If UC fans have any visions of winning the game, I think they are delusional. If you want to beat OU, it better be on the road or at a neutral site-- where they are clearly more pedestrain. But in Norman, they are as good as it gets.
There was one year (2005) when OU was in transition and they "only" went 5-1 at home (lost to TCU) and the point differentials were more reasonable. But that was an odd year and a team that didn't quite have the talent that this current squad has.
And these numbers weren't just padded with patsies-- they've spread the beatings out between weak Non-conference foes and ranked teams alike.
UC is a solid program, and they deserve respect. My predicition is 45-21 OU, which I think is pretty reasonable. But that also leaves OU covering the spread.
If you want to bet UC for fun/emotional reasons, that's OK of course. In the end, it's gambling, and you very well may wind up winning the bet. But I'm just here to tell you that it is NOT a smart pick from a pure odds standpoint.
I give UC below a 1% chance to win the game, and about a 40% chance to cover the spread.
Some good research Ed, but I don't see Oklahoma putting up 45 points on UC's defense. The most anyone scored on them last year was 33. I know Oklahoma is better than most the teams they played last year (with the exception of West Virginia who scored 28), but dropping 45 on the Cats isn't a common occurence.
Looking at 2006 nobody scored 45 on them that season either. If you want to compare tough road games UC played at Ohio State in '06 and let up 37, and the following week they played at Virginia Tech and let up 29. West Virginia put up the most on them in '06 with 42 pts. This year's team and defense is much better than the '06 team, so I would be really surprised if the Sooners put up more than 35. I really think UC covers this weekend. If UC's offense can move the ball with any efficiency and doesn't give Oklahoma easy points, I think UC's defense is good enough to hold them to less than 35 points, which should mean that UC will cover.
And one more thing I just realized...the three losses under Brian Kelly all came by a touchdown or less. The Bearcats will cover +21.
Last edited by Redlegs23; 09-04-2008 at 05:12 PM.
In '04 Louisville scored 70 on UC. I know it's not relevant. I just wanted to point it out (BEFORE UC returns the favor soon).
I don't see any team in the country beating UC by 21 consistently. I can see it happening but it's definitely against the odds. Grutza and the offense would have to turn it over a ton for that to happen. A 21 point spread is an insult to this stellar defense.
Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7
I'm not holding my breath for a win (although it's possible and stranger things have happened), but if OU puts up 45 against this defense, then that will be validation that OU has one of the top offenses of the new millennium.
Last edited by paintmered; 09-04-2008 at 05:34 PM.
What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?
All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.
I just read that Oklahoma led the nation in points scored last year, so I guess if anyone's going to put up 45 it will be them. I still think this will be a close game and UC will cover.
OK, as for predictions for this game, I'll take OU 27 UC 21. I really can't pick UC as much as I want to because I think that would just be a homer call. In reality, they are playing a really good team who has been really good at home. Its a tough one to win anyway you slice it. Can they win? I think so, but its still unlikely. This game may be the best of the week though. Watching UC's defense agians OU's offense should be fun to watch no matter the outcome. BK seems to worry about Grutza going outside the system and trying to do too much. If that were to happen, I could definately see it happening here. A turnover will force the game out of UC's reach and they get score late, but just can't get the last 6 they need. UC comes away dissapointed, but grab the attention of a lot of people with their performance. If UC hangs with 'em, I think it is a huge building block for the rest of the season and into next year. They don't have to win for it to be a good game for them.
Just for reference, Josh Katzowitz calls it 24-14 in favor of OU, and Bill Koch says BK thinks it will take 3 TD's to be in a position to win. Bruce Feldman weighs in at ESPN.com saying OU is just too physical for the Cats. He has 27-10 in favor of the Sooners.
Should be fun!
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