when tracking player progression/regression, smaller sample sizes, or "what have you done for me lately" trumps a large sample size.Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
when tracking player progression/regression, smaller sample sizes, or "what have you done for me lately" trumps a large sample size.
Bats win 7-1
Maloney: 5 IP, 5 hits, 1 run, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Fisher: 1 IP, 1 BB
Herrera:1 1/3 IP, 2 K, 2.08 ERA
Rosales:3-5, 2 doubles, HR, 2 RBI
Hanigan: 2-5, double, RBI
Cumberland:2-4
I'd keep an eye on how Carlos Fisher does the rest of this year and next year. He had a .179 BAA, 4 BB, 12 K in 7 2/3 IP in Louisville entering tonight. Small sample size, but he seems to be handling Louisville alright.
Last edited by AmarilloRed; 08-08-2008 at 10:38 PM.
Lookouts win 4-0
Lecure: 7 1/3 IP, 2 hits, 9 K
Geronimo:1 2/3 IP, 1 BB, 2 K
Dorn:3-4, double , RBI
Henry:2-4, triple
Stubbs:1-4, double, RBI
The Sarasota game was suspended by rain
Last edited by AmarilloRed; 08-08-2008 at 10:47 PM.
Dragons lose 14-3
Soto: 1-5
Waring:1-5
Bour:2-4, 2 doubles
K. Jones: 2-4
Mustangs up 4-0 in the 6th
Arneson: 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 BB, 8 K
Puckett: 2-2, HR
Wiley: 2-2, HR
Konstanty:1-2, double, 2 RBI
Last edited by AmarilloRed; 08-08-2008 at 10:54 PM.
No, it really doesn't... a small sample size is never a more useful forward indicator. Small samples are too much dependent on luck. Player's can appear to improve based on a fluky couple months (ie. Jerry Hairston), when really they are just in a higher standard deviation for their skillset. Bad players string along success over small samples all the time. There is too much luck in baseball to ever to take a small sample size as gospel.
The question is whether Rosales can keep up this type of play. The normal truth is probably somewhere in between. He wasn't as bad as he was in the first few months, but he's likely not the same player he has been the last few. I'd expect he's somwhere in between, and with his mediocre fielding, that does not project to be a regular. Until he keeps up that type of play for longer periods of time, his ceiling translates as more of an offensive minded utility man (think a more powerful, less contact oriented Jeff Keppinger) that can fill in at multiple positions. The type of guy to be proud of on your bench, but ashamed to be penciling in on an every day basis.
Actually I expect Rosales to be just about what he was the last 2 months - not as bad as the first month and not as incredible as the current one. Rosales can hit, period. I think his bat will translate very well to the majors but his first year will be ups and downs as he adjusts. I'm not at all afraid of him at third base if it came to that but again, there's the learning curve all over again. What he's not going to do is come up and immediately shine. Besides, as AK points out, his defense is mediocre and that would just perpetuate the same problem we already have with EE at third. Okay bat, suspect defense.
I think Rosales translates to be something of a 2005 version of Rich Aurilia. He can play all the infield spots (albeit not great), he's right-handed, and he has a little power. Sure, he'll strike out more, but beyond that, I don't see the two as being all that different from each other.
I see Rosales as a utility infield bench type for a couple years, and we use his bat as a pinch hitter...
As for the large sample size, take a look at last years numbers where he was the minor league hitter of the year over Jay Bruce...He had a very bad month in April and I agree that the larger sample size is better to look at but he still isn't that bad and he isn't as good as hit hot month right now, but I think he could bring some much needed pop off the bench at a cheap price...
This is right on and its not bad to have while its cheap. I'd like to see Rosales play in the fall league and get some reps in the OF. Perfect player for a supersub. The Reds have a lot of these types and should realize its a way to salvage a guy who doesn;t turn into a every day player. Then maybe they won;t pay the Freel's of the world $4 Million (which I thought was ok at the time but now I see that its unnecessary and better spent elsewhere).
FTR, I think Valaika is in the same mold and maybe he should be sold off before his value falls from potential every day MI with a decent bat to supersub who doesn't play well enough defensively to hold down a spot every day. Develop Rosales as a supersub, dump Freel if possible, hold the line with Hairston and flip Valaiaka in a deal for a vet to fill a spot.
Rosales and Dickerson give the Reds a couple of fairly cheap but promisong bench options for 2009 and should help the team save some cash for elsewhere. If they show thay can handle a bigger role, all the better.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Rosales doesn't play second and short, does he? He sounds to me like Andy Phillips.
He grew up a SS and played there through low A. Then he hurt is elbow and spent time at 1B for the most part. He isn't a SS, but can play there in a pinch
Actually, he's spent more time playing shortstop than anywhere else. He's spent some more time at second base in Louisville this year, too. I think the Reds might be preparing him for his future utility role.
I'm pretty sure I posted before you, dougdirt. I don't know how the message board screwed that one up.
1. Does anyone think Maloney is less equipped to handle MLB right now than Homer Bailey?
2. Does anyone think the Reds could use a lefty reliever who strikes out a batter an inning, has good control, has strong groundball tendencies, and never gives up home runs?
I wouldn't say Maloney has strong groundball tendencies.... because he gives up more fly balls than ground balls.
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