Pirates Passing Reds In Pace Of Rebuilding

[Spring~Fields]

Pirates passing Reds in pace of rebuilding

Deals net Pittsburgh bounty of talent
By John Erardi

Cincinnati fans know all about Pittsburgh's baseball team, which has been struggling almost since the Reds beat them in the National League Championship Series on the way to winning the World Championship in 1990.

(It pains us to think there isn't a Reds fan under the age of 25 with a meaningful memory of that great NLCS. Remember Game 2, when the Pirates had two on and none out in a one-run game and a one-game-to-none lead in the series and Barry Bonds flew out to Reds right fielder Paul O'Neill, who gunned down Andy Van Slyke trying to advance to third base? Remember Game 4, when the Pirates were down a run and trailing 2-1 in the series and Reds left fielder Eric Davis, who was backing up center fielder Billy Hatcher on the play, deftly judged a carom off the wall and threw a strike to third base to nail Bobby Bonilla, who was trying to stretch a double into a triple? If there's an outfield model for the 2009 Reds, it's Davis-Hatcher-O'Neill.)

Now, the Pirates are working on a 16th straight losing season - twice the length of the Reds' streak.

So why can't we shake this feeling that the Pirates - who appear to be racing neck-and-neck with the Reds to finish in the National League Central basement - have taken a huge lead in a more important race?
The race to return to the postseason.

The Pirates and the Reds have almost everything in common. (Well, except this: The Pirates went into this season with a payroll $25 million lower than the Reds' $74 million.)

Each team has had a lot of managerial turnover, new general managers, relatively new ownership and relatively new ballparks. Each has similar run-differentials (the Pirates have given up 77 more runs than they've scored; the Reds, 89).

Each has a mix of veterans and young position players. Each team is woeful defensively; each has mostly young pitchers.

At the All Star break, the Reds were 46-50, 111/2 games back. The Pirates were 44-50, 12.5 games back. The Pirates faced the same decision at the trading deadline as the Reds: "Should be play for 82 wins?"

The Pirates said no, and proceeded to move everything useful on their roster to begin retooling for 2009.

We realize the Reds couldn't have gotten the same haul of prospects the Pirates did. The Pirates' trade chips were more marketable.

Jason Bay, a right-handed hitter, was what Boston was looking for, and was a better value than Dunn because Bay was signed for 2009. Reliever Damaso Marte was probably better than Jeremy Affeldt, and the Reds really didn't have any equivalent to Xavier Nady.

But couldn't the Reds have gotten something for some of their 13 free agents besides Nick Massett and Danny Richar for Ken Griffey Jr.? (We like that trade, by the way, and we like that the White Sox are splitting half of Junior's $4 million buyout.)

There's no way the Reds are going to re-sign most, if any, of their free agents. Why didn't they try to get something for them, even if it was 70 cents on the dollar?

When's the last time the Reds made a rebuilding-trade of great substance? Would you believe five years ago? Jose Guillen for Aaron Harang by interim co-general manager Brad Kullman on July 30, 2003.

The Reds continue to labor under the fantasy that they are one or two players away, or that 82 wins is some sort of meaningful goal.

Meanwhile, the Pirates acquired a potential starting third baseman, two likely outfield starters for 2009 and a high upside 20-year-old outfield prospect. They also got some immediate pitching help. (Jeff Karstens, 2-0, 0.00 ERA.)

So, which team do you think is going to be the first to .500? The team that sucked it up and said that to contend "we need more talent," and then made moves to acquire It?
Or the team that fantasized about 82 wins and now says the reason they are losing so many games is because they are the team of former general manager Wayne Krivsky (who was fired 97 games ago), not the team of Reds manager Dusty Baker and general manager Walt Jocketty?

Right now, our money's on the Pirates.

Sabermetrician Greg Gajus contributed most of the information for this piece. Also contributing were sabermetricians Justin Inaz and Joel Luckhaupt.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...808100381/1071

[RedsManRick]

It's amazing what happens when you admit your reality and actually work towards your future.

[HokieRed]

My money's on the Pirates, too, but it is still overwhelming Wayne's team and at least that problem is gone.

[WVRed]

It's amazing what happens when you admit your reality and actually work towards your future.

The problem is, Pittsburgh has always been working toward a future that hasn't and most likely never will be there. Brian Giles and Aramis Ramirez say hi.

They got quantity over quality in the Bay trade and I think that will come back to haunt them. They really didn't get anything spectacular back in the Nady deal unless Tabata lives up to potential, and he is similar to Willy Mo Pena in that regard.

[edabbs44]

It's amazing what happens when you admit your reality and actually work towards your future.

True that.

[mth123]

The problem is, Pittsburgh has always been working toward a future that hasn't and most likely never will be there. Brian Giles and Aramis Ramirez say hi.

They got quantity over quality in the Bay trade and I think that will come back to haunt them. They really didn't get anything spectacular back in the Nady deal unless Tabata lives up to potential, and he is similar to Willy Mo Pena in that regard.

That's right. I doubt any of these players will be as good as Bay is now. If LaRoche does well, he may one day be as good as Nady. I think this does more for the bottom line than the future. I'm not real high on Tabata.

[RedlegJake]

Sorry, I don't see anything the Pirates have done as being really a great move. As WVRed said they got quantity over quality and not a single guy who says "everyday solid ballplayer". The one thing I like is management there isn't trying to blow smoke at their fans by saying we're going to win right away.

[Falls City Beer]

Until the Pirates pony up and keep some talent around, this is more of the revolving door. I'm not saying the Reds are great shakes, but I'm saying the Pirates method of dumping and regrowing isn't a plan, either.

[Chip R]

Sorry, I don't see anything the Pirates have done as being really a great move. As WVRed said they got quantity over quality and not a single guy who says "everyday solid ballplayer". The one thing I like is management there isn't trying to blow smoke at their fans by saying we're going to win right away.

I'm not really sure what the Bucs got back in talent but it seems to me this is their MO. It's a vicious cycle. They get young players and play them till they get expensive and trade them off for more young players always promising a future that never comes to pass.

As for not blowing smoke to their fans, if they did, who would notice? I think it's a little different there than it is here. The Steelers have been #1 there for going on 40 years. It's a football town first. With the success of the Penguins and Sidney Crosby, I'm not sure baseball is even 2nd. I think they believe they can do moves like that because they can't make the fan base any more apathetic than it already is. Baseball is #1 here and can be counted on to draw around 2M people a year. I think TBTB believe that if they did a complete teardown, they would alienate that fan base. Fortunately for the Reds, the Bengals can't seem to fill that vacuum the Reds have left. Right now the Reds have an owner who wants to win now and a GM used to winning. Therefore I don't see much change in the MO of the Reds.

The Pirates are a good example of why tearing things down to build back up ala the Marlins doesn't always work. You have to have that pipeline of good talent coming in to make that work. Unfortunately for the Pirates and Reds, neither team has that kind of talent.

[*BaseClogger*]

Sorry, I don't see anything the Pirates have done as being really a great move. As WVRed said they got quantity over quality and not a single guy who says "everyday solid ballplayer".

Sounds like a Billy Beane trade, such as the Dan Haren deal, doesn't it?

[bucksfan2]

Interesting article but I don't know if I buy it. Jason Bay is a very very good player. He also had next year left on his contract and Boston wanted a right handed bat. Erardi assumes that the Reds didn't try to trade Dunn. You have to look at the return before you bash the Reds for not making a trade. Affeldt and Weathers probably could have been traded but what would the value have been? Would the value have been better than two comp picks in the 09 draft? Too often it is assumed that since the Reds didn't move anybody they made a mistake.

The Pirates will always be the Pirates. They now bridge the gap from the end of hockey to the start of Football. High school football is also huge in Pittsburgh and now that may even trump the Pirates.

[RedsManRick]

They got quantity over quality in the Bay trade and I think that will come back to haunt them. They really didn't get anything spectacular back in the Nady deal unless Tabata lives up to potential, and he is similar to Willy Mo Pena in that regard.

If Andy LaRoche, a 24 year old 3B with a career .294/.382/.516 line in the minors isn't quality, I'm not sure what is.

That said, I'd take what they got for their players in a heartbeat over the comp picks we're going to get when Dunn walks. To say nothing of the zero return on Weathers or Affeldt.

It's not fair to conflate the salary purging of the Ramirez & Lofton for Hill trade with the ones made this year. The Pirates of the past have talked youth movement without an actual plan to build the organization. A real youth movement, properly executed, gives results like we've seen in Milwaukee and Cleveland. The Pirates, like the Royals, have simply gotten rid of guys as they got older with no larger plan.

[Reds1]

It's all about pitching and with the 2 young studs and even Burton, Bray with Votto and Bruce and throw in Phillips we have some great young talent. It's the best it's been in a long time. Defense, the catching position, power righty OF and bench is the the things that need fixed. This team is very young and will have spells like now, but injuries have hurt this team. Also, SS. Gonz would have been a nice player, but I really worry. I'd rather have Kepp on the bench then full time - he just doesn't play defense well enough, but you get an OF, SS, 5th starter and the likes of Hairston, Burton, Freel, etc. healthy and all that gets better. I'd take our team over Pitt anyday right now.

[Joseph]

The problem with the Reds is for a while we keep thinking we have all this 'good' young talent that just needs to step up to the next level and then they never do.

Kearns, Larson, Lopez, Reese, Casey, LaRue among other offensive players....retread pitchers galore and first round busts from Bowden. We all know the story.

Right now we are all harping on Phillips, and Bruce, and Votto, and Volquez, and Cueto and Bailey.

We all look at them as 'locks' to be part of the future, some perhaps rightly so, but chances are good some of them won't pan out, or just aren't as good as we think they are.

Phillips for example shouldn't be a main cog moving ahead, but a support cog. A 6th place hitter not a clean up hitter. He's a middle of the pack NL 2B, but we all view him as a key factor in moving ahead.

Thats why the Reds aren't getting more. They see something thats 'ok' and blow it up in their own minds and the minds of fans as something that is great.

Don't get me wrong at all please. Phillips has a future with the Reds. He's good defensively. He's ok with the bat too. I just want him hittin 6th, or 7th come next season.

Same thing with Votto. He's an ok player, still room for growth mind you, but either 2nd [where he has excelled] or 6th for him.

We've all said it, the 'talent' on this team is compromised of 6th place hitters. If we go into next year with these 6th place hitters making up our core, we can't turn it around as WJ wants, or as we want as fans.

Bruce does indeed have the potential as a 3rd place hitter, and Dunn could be a good middle of the line up hitter too, but Walts not bringing him back it sounds like. Therefore....we've got little to carry our offense, and a lot to wish for.

[Reds1]

True we don't know how good these guys will be. Votto maybe be a top hitter and so may Bruce, but they might be ave type hitters - if so we are in trouble, but at least the potential is there. As far as Phillips he is not a middle of the pack offensive hitter. I don't like him in the 4 hole, but he does drive in runs. If we had 6-7 guys like phillips on the team we'd be pretty darn good. 25-30 HRs and 80-90 RBIs ever year. Like I said before missing a power righty and need some defensive improvement. The difference of this team and past is our prospect talent is in our pitching. Voquez and Cueto are the real deal and we do still have a shot for Homer and several others on the farm. That's all I'm saying. Pitching wins, but you do have to score and play a little defense. Too Bad Cory Patterson is a lefty and can't hit very well. The speed and defense are so needed. Is Freel, Hairston, or Hopper the guys - I don't know, but would be good bench players at the very least. I think the dodgers have shown what a Many type hitter does to the whole line up. We need a hitter like that to go with all the young talen and Dunn, EE, and Phillips and with a better bench and some options could be a very nice offensive club with not a bunch of changes.