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Thread: Players involved in the Dunn trade

  1. #61
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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by big boy View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong on this. The draft picks would have come only after Dunn was offered arbitration and turned it down for another team. There was the possibility that Dunn would have accepted and they would be stuck with him and received no picks.
    Yes, thats correct, but then they'd also not be out anything, just another year of Dunn's contract that probably would have been the same as this past year (if that) and one more year to Dunn's age.

    Dunn almost certainly wouldn't have accepted arbitration anyway.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    His full season in single A he batter over .300, full season in AA batted over .300, this year in his first full season in AAA is batting .250, well below his .280 minor league average. Where does one season of hitting .250 translate into a .200 major league hitter? He also has some speed and athleticism with a few triples and steals. David Ross was a career .250 minor league hitter with a ton of K's, Castillo doesn't K. Every level Castillo has been at he has struggled and then improved.

    To me Castillo seems to be a poor mans Jason Kendall type when Kendall was in his prime hitting .300, I could see Castillio being a .260-.275 hitter.
    That's my fault, I was looking at the wrong Castillo (one in the Cubs system).

    Still, even using his best numbers from 2007 of .302/.333/.437 projects to ML equivalents of .270/.294/.400. That's a .694 OPS. That's still pretty bad.

    He'd have to have some kind of extreme breakout to even get to average hitter status.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    That's my fault, I was looking at the wrong Castillo (one in the Cubs system).

    Still, even using his best numbers from 2007 of .302/.333/.437 projects to ML equivalents of .270/.294/.400. That's a .694 OPS. That's still pretty bad.

    He'd have to have some kind of extreme breakout to even get to average hitter status.
    haha fair enough. All in all, with his tools such as having decent speed, being able to make contact and handle the bat I think he will be a solid hitter from the catcher position. He doesn't have home run pop, which it'll be nice to have a hitter without it. After watching Larue, Ross, Bako all not be able to put the bat on the ball often it will be a nice change, but nothing stellar. Hopefully he will be able to learn to draw a few more walks and bump the obp a bit. I'll take the average, but a .330 obp would be a lot more appealing.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    I wonder if Castillo is the guy, if so with the 47 hour window, baring no one else claimed him, even though leatherpants probably did again, we should be hearing about his acquisition any minute now.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    haha fair enough. All in all, with his tools such as having decent speed, being able to make contact and handle the bat I think he will be a solid hitter from the catcher position. He doesn't have home run pop, which it'll be nice to have a hitter without it. After watching Larue, Ross, Bako all not be able to put the bat on the ball often it will be a nice change, but nothing stellar. Hopefully he will be able to learn to draw a few more walks and bump the obp a bit. I'll take the average, but a .330 obp would be a lot more appealing.
    yeah .330 OBP added to his good defensive status, rated best defensive catcher by BA in the D-backs organization coming into this year, would be plenty

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    haha fair enough. All in all, with his tools such as having decent speed, being able to make contact and handle the bat I think he will be a solid hitter from the catcher position. He doesn't have home run pop, which it'll be nice to have a hitter without it. After watching Larue, Ross, Bako all not be able to put the bat on the ball often it will be a nice change, but nothing stellar. Hopefully he will be able to learn to draw a few more walks and bump the obp a bit. I'll take the average, but a .330 obp would be a lot more appealing.
    He does have the ability to hit for some contact but that's it. Everything else he does offensively is iffy. If he could learn to take more walks, and I mean a lot more walks, then we might have someone who's OK. But that just doesn't happen at the AAA level. By then a player is pretty set in their mechanics and habits. Simply put, he's just not going to do it.

    I'm looking at the PECOTA projections and it telling me he's essentially a career .260/.300/.375 hitter. Is that worth having a guy who D is supposedly good? I'd still take the better hitter with average defense.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    He does have the ability to hit for some contact but that's it. Everything else he does offensively is iffy. If he could learn to take more walks, and I mean a lot more walks, then we might have someone who's OK. But that just doesn't happen at the AAA level. By then a player is pretty set in their mechanics and habits. Simply put, he's just not going to do it.

    I'm looking at the PECOTA projections and it telling me he's essentially a career .260/.300/.375 hitter. Is that worth having a guy who D is supposedly good? I'd still take the better hitter with average defense.
    this team is going to be built around speed and defense, so yes

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    this team is going to be built around speed and defense, so yes
    If that's the case, then this team is going to be built for losing. Defense is nice but not at the expense of offense. Speed is overrated.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    If that's the case, then this team is going to be built for losing. Defense is nice but not at the expense of offense. Speed is overrated.
    we will have plenty of offense

    Bruce will be better
    Votto will be better
    EE has greatly improved his power
    BP has been above average and, if dusty is smart, will move him out of the #4 hole which I believe will allow BP to be even better hitter.
    Stubbs/Dickerson/Hairston (if he continues to play at the level) he has all put up good OBP's

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    He does have the ability to hit for some contact but that's it. Everything else he does offensively is iffy. If he could learn to take more walks, and I mean a lot more walks, then we might have someone who's OK. But that just doesn't happen at the AAA level. By then a player is pretty set in their mechanics and habits. Simply put, he's just not going to do it.

    I'm looking at the PECOTA projections and it telling me he's essentially a career .260/.300/.375 hitter. Is that worth having a guy who D is supposedly good? I'd still take the better hitter with average defense.

    The problem is we are going to have a very hard time finding a better hitter unless Merasaco pans out. Good hitting catchers just don't come around very often, and many of the good hitting minor league catchers lose their hitting abilities after a few years in the majors or just don't develop them at the mlb level.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    we will have plenty of offense

    Bruce will be better
    Votto will be better
    EE has greatly improved his power
    BP has been above average and, if dusty is smart, will move him out of the #4 hole which I believe will allow BP to be even better hitter.
    Stubbs/Dickerson/Hairston if continues to play at the level he has all put up good OBP's
    completely agree

  13. #72
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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    What people need to realize is that the Reds would not get two first round draft picks if they kept Dunn and then he walked at the end of the year.
    They would offer him arbitration and he would decline it if the rumors are true about his demand for a $100M contract, so they would get two picks, just not first rounders.

    It is very complicated, but basically the Reds would receive the signing teams 1st round pick, unless that pick is in the top 15 of the first round. If it is, then they get the teams 2nd round pick. That is why the Brewers got the Reds 2nd round pick, not their 1st. Then the Reds would receive a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

    So the Reds would two picks somewhere between the 16th picks and the 75th pick in the draft, most likely two towards the middle of that.
    Last year the Brewers got the 32 and 53 picks in the draft for losing Cordero to the Reds. That is about what the Reds would receive for Dunn.
    The odds of one of a supplemental pick and a late 1st or 2nd round pick making the majors is less than 50%. The odds of both of them around 25%. The odds of one of them being a MLB contributor for more than 3 years, is less than 25% and the odds of both of them around 10%.

    I think the odds of one of the three players the Reds get for Dunn to be a MLB contributor is 100% (Owings), the odds of at least two of them probably at least 75% (Owings and Castillo).

    Owings will be in the rotation for years, unless his arm is just shot, in which case he will not pass a physical. This is very different from the Majewski case, since the Reds know that he is injured.

    Castillo most likely will be the Reds starting catcher next year. He is projected to be like one of the Molina's. Not much bat, but enough to justify great defense, and the ability to be the captain of the infield and the handler of a pitching staff. Catching is perhaps the most defensive minded position on the diamond. If he is as good as scouts say he is, he should be the Reds catcher for years.

    Buck, who knows, but regardless the first two themselves are better than two picks between 16 and 75.

    I think it's a obvious choice.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    Who's to say they won't?

    If these guys are going to be so so at best and 2 draft picks could be either be potential starters or end up being nothing, well I'll take my chances on the draft picks.

    Owings could be good but I doubt he'll be anything better than a #5 starter. Buck is already broken as far as I'm concerned. And Castillo is a future Mendoza hitting catcher.

    Hell, for all the raves Castillo gets for his D, I'd rather have a guy who can keep the ball in front of him and OBP .350.
    Dont forget we would have to pay those ridiculous signing bonuses on those players then, if we can even sign them at all, in which case, than you lose them. We arent having luck from what I have seen or read signing this years draft pick, why add 2 more expenses like that?

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    If that's the case, then this team is going to be built for losing. Defense is nice but not at the expense of offense. Speed is overrated.
    But defense is not. Look at who makes the Playoffs every year. All the teams are always in the top half of the league and mostly higher in defense.

    This is especially true for catcher. Catcher is the most heavily defensive position on the diamond. Earl Weaver said that Rick Dempsey would be his catcher every day, even if he hit .000. That is how important he thought defense for a catcher is. And the O's won a World Series and many playoff games with Dempsey as catcher.

    Strong defense helps your pitching staff, lowers their pitch count, makes them feel confident to let the hitter put the ball in play, and reduces the number of runners on base.

    The Reds will never win without a better defense. I think it is clear Jocketty realizes this and this is the first move he making, to shore up the Reds defense for years to come.

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    Re: Players involved in the Dunn trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    The problem is we are going to have a very hard time finding a better hitter unless Merasaco pans out. Good hitting catchers just don't come around very often, and many of the good hitting minor league catchers lose their hitting abilities after a few years in the majors or just don't develop them at the mlb level.
    No you're right about that. Hitting catchers are hard to come by.

    But the point is that Castillo has become, beyond reason, some sort of key player in this deal and people are statisfied with two question mark pitchers and a light hitting but supposedly good D catcher. If Castillo were an afterthough tack-on player, fine. But let's not pretend this guy is bringing any real value to the team. Light hitting catchers aren't hard to come by, the Reds have plenty of them. And the numbers I'm looking at right now say that Castillo is an average catcher defensively, maybe slightly above average. Why is this guy a key to a deal for a major player? The only good thing I see about the guy is that he isn't the other Castillo I was looking at earlier.

    If WJ were looking for 2-3 solid prospects in return for Dunn, Castillo shouldn't have been one of them.


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