Still, even using his best numbers from 2007 of .302/.333/.437 projects to ML equivalents of .270/.294/.400. That's a .694 OPS. That's still pretty bad.
He'd have to have some kind of extreme breakout to even get to average hitter status.
I wonder if Castillo is the guy, if so with the 47 hour window, baring no one else claimed him, even though leatherpants probably did again, we should be hearing about his acquisition any minute now.
I'm looking at the PECOTA projections and it telling me he's essentially a career .260/.300/.375 hitter. Is that worth having a guy who D is supposedly good? I'd still take the better hitter with average defense.
Bruce will be better
Votto will be better
EE has greatly improved his power
BP has been above average and, if dusty is smart, will move him out of the #4 hole which I believe will allow BP to be even better hitter.
Stubbs/Dickerson/Hairston (if he continues to play at the level) he has all put up good OBP's
The problem is we are going to have a very hard time finding a better hitter unless Merasaco pans out. Good hitting catchers just don't come around very often, and many of the good hitting minor league catchers lose their hitting abilities after a few years in the majors or just don't develop them at the mlb level.
What people need to realize is that the Reds would not get two first round draft picks if they kept Dunn and then he walked at the end of the year.
They would offer him arbitration and he would decline it if the rumors are true about his demand for a $100M contract, so they would get two picks, just not first rounders.
It is very complicated, but basically the Reds would receive the signing teams 1st round pick, unless that pick is in the top 15 of the first round. If it is, then they get the teams 2nd round pick. That is why the Brewers got the Reds 2nd round pick, not their 1st. Then the Reds would receive a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round.
So the Reds would two picks somewhere between the 16th picks and the 75th pick in the draft, most likely two towards the middle of that.
Last year the Brewers got the 32 and 53 picks in the draft for losing Cordero to the Reds. That is about what the Reds would receive for Dunn.
The odds of one of a supplemental pick and a late 1st or 2nd round pick making the majors is less than 50%. The odds of both of them around 25%. The odds of one of them being a MLB contributor for more than 3 years, is less than 25% and the odds of both of them around 10%.
I think the odds of one of the three players the Reds get for Dunn to be a MLB contributor is 100% (Owings), the odds of at least two of them probably at least 75% (Owings and Castillo).
Owings will be in the rotation for years, unless his arm is just shot, in which case he will not pass a physical. This is very different from the Majewski case, since the Reds know that he is injured.
Castillo most likely will be the Reds starting catcher next year. He is projected to be like one of the Molina's. Not much bat, but enough to justify great defense, and the ability to be the captain of the infield and the handler of a pitching staff. Catching is perhaps the most defensive minded position on the diamond. If he is as good as scouts say he is, he should be the Reds catcher for years.
Buck, who knows, but regardless the first two themselves are better than two picks between 16 and 75.
I think it's a obvious choice.
This is especially true for catcher. Catcher is the most heavily defensive position on the diamond. Earl Weaver said that Rick Dempsey would be his catcher every day, even if he hit .000. That is how important he thought defense for a catcher is. And the O's won a World Series and many playoff games with Dempsey as catcher.
Strong defense helps your pitching staff, lowers their pitch count, makes them feel confident to let the hitter put the ball in play, and reduces the number of runners on base.
The Reds will never win without a better defense. I think it is clear Jocketty realizes this and this is the first move he making, to shore up the Reds defense for years to come.
But the point is that Castillo has become, beyond reason, some sort of key player in this deal and people are statisfied with two question mark pitchers and a light hitting but supposedly good D catcher. If Castillo were an afterthough tack-on player, fine. But let's not pretend this guy is bringing any real value to the team. Light hitting catchers aren't hard to come by, the Reds have plenty of them. And the numbers I'm looking at right now say that Castillo is an average catcher defensively, maybe slightly above average. Why is this guy a key to a deal for a major player? The only good thing I see about the guy is that he isn't the other Castillo I was looking at earlier.
If WJ were looking for 2-3 solid prospects in return for Dunn, Castillo shouldn't have been one of them.
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