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Thread: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

  1. #31
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    I think Lee and Dunn are similar, but 2006 was the year that Lee signed his big contract and he was older than Dunn, just as bad on defense as Dunn, and his offensive production at that point in his career wasn't where it is today.

    We can argue all day if Lee is "much better" than Dunn TODAY (even though he isn't), but the point is where Lee was after 2006 (before he signed the longterm deal with Houston).

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  3. #32
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Oh well, for the heck of it.

    Carlos Lee (career)
    Runners on---2569 AB (.856 OPS)
    RISP----1205 AB (.896 OPS)
    RISP 2 out---753 AB (.888 OPS)
    Bases loaded---244 AB (.903 OPS)

    Adam Dunn (career)
    Runners on---1013 AB (.915 OPS)
    RISP----1205 AB (.888 OPS)
    RISP 2 out---753 AB (.881 OPS)
    Bases loaded---244 AB (1.010 OPS)

    And that's after two years of Lee producing big time. I'm sure his numbers were lower across the board through 2006 (before he signed the biggie).

  4. #33
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post

    Maybe we're not reading that right. But if we're misinterpreting it, suffice it to say we're not the only ones. And it appears Baker is saying that the Reds' disappointing record is his players' fault, and his former GM's fault, but not his own or his current GM's doing.


    Dusty Baker has many admirable traits. And this is not an attempt to heap all the blame on him. We're just saying that when teams like this fall apart, it's everybody's fault -- including the manager's.
    Maybe he's heard or read on RZ as many times as I have how the manager doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. That is a two-sided coin if one desires to be consistent--a trait of rational people, I might add.

  5. #34
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Carlos Lee (age 27, 2003)
    31HR
    113 RBI
    114 OPS+

    Adam Dunn (age 27, 2007)
    40 HR
    106 RBI
    136 OPS+

    --------------------------------------------------

    Carlos Lee (age 28, 2004)
    31 HR
    99 RBI
    127 OPS+

    Adam Dunn (age 28, 2008)
    32 HR*
    74 RBI*
    130 OPS+*

    25% of season left to play.

    Carlos Lee signed his contract in November of 2006 at the age of 30. He put up 32 HR, 114 RBI (109 OPS+) in 2005 and 37 HR, 116 RBI (126 OPS+) in 2006. Dunn is two years younger and just as prodcutive (if not more) than Lee was in 2006.
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 08-14-2008 at 06:14 PM.

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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Oh well, for the heck of it.

    Carlos Lee (career)
    Runners on---2569 AB (.856 OPS)
    RISP----1205 AB (.896 OPS)
    RISP 2 out---753 AB (.888 OPS)
    Bases loaded---244 AB (.903 OPS)

    Adam Dunn (career)
    Runners on---1013 AB (.915 OPS)
    RISP----1205 AB (.888 OPS)
    RISP 2 out---753 AB (.881 OPS)
    Bases loaded---244 AB (1.010 OPS)

    And that's after two years of Lee producing big time. I'm sure his numbers were lower across the board through 2006 (before he signed the biggie).
    Pitcher: "Oh no, Adam Dunn's coming up. I might walk him and not lose the game."

    compare Adam with Lee in percentage of men driven in from 2nd and 3rd, and you'll understand Lee's contract. Almost all GMs want a bat like Lee's, which provides good offense, consistently.conversely, a lot of GMs won't pay Adam for what he does, which is to provide large bursts of inconsistent offense. They see Adam as more luxury than staple.

    The other perception of Lee is that Lee hits good pitchers, so he'd be good in the playoffs (if he could ever get there). the perception of Adam is the opposite. I don't know if that's fair; I personally think that Adam can look silly against bad pitchers as well.

    I agree with the sentiment that if Adam rocks in the playoffs this year, he'll make himself a LOT of money.

  7. #36
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    Pitcher: "Oh no, Adam Dunn's coming up. I might walk him and not lose the game."
    Must be nice to have better hitters in your batting order and be placed in a position to drive them in (and be protected).

    I'm sure if Lee hit 6th in the Reds order he'd be pitched around as well. Although, I bet he'd be reaching for those crappy pitches and striking out while Dunn walks.

    I still don't see any overwhelming evidence that Lee was a "much better" player in 2006 (at 30) than Dunn is in 2008. In fact, in 2006 Lee was much more unproductive than he is now.

  8. #37
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Must be nice to have better hitters in your batting order and be placed in a position to drive them in (and be protected).
    nobody pitches around Adam. pitchers LIKE facing him when the game's on the line.

    he doesn't deliver a high percentage of runners, because he doesn't hit the ball very often. that's just not his game. what he does, he does well, but it's not what a lot of teams want to pay a lot to get.

  9. #38
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    nobody pitches around Adam. pitchers LIKE facing him when the game's on the line.
    I understand the point you are trying to make but I think you are exaggerating it just a tad.

    I doubt any pitchers "LIKE" to face Adam Dunn with the game on the line. That's the reason he is walked so much.

  10. #39
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    I understand the point you are trying to make but I think you are exaggerating it just a tad.

    I doubt any pitchers "LIKE" to face Adam Dunn with the game on the line. That's the reason he is walked so much.
    they especially like to see him when they can't give up a hit, or else need a strikeout/popup.

    one more point about Dunn. A lot has been made of Ricciardi's comments, but Ricciardi's right-- Dunn is the last guy that he should want to sign. Ricciardi's not got the best job security (one would think) and Dunn's capable of putting stretches that would get most GMs fired. "That's your $100mill signing??? He's hitting .220 and leading the league in K's!!" You can talk OPS if you want, but those kind of guys are luxuries.

    Boston can take him on; Yankees; teams that aren't too worried about cash, and where they already have a lot of slow guys on base.

    but Dunn'll get abuse in those places, too. Cincy's pretty polite, and he got some abuse there.

    I'd like to see him back in Cincy once we get going again, so I hope that he does NOT sign in Boston or NY. if he does not, Walt could make a nice deal to get him in a couple of years, I think.

  11. #40
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    I've been so turned off of baseball in the last week and beginning to get into football that I didn't even read that Dusty quote until now. What a clown. I can't believe I used to defend that guy. He just keeps getting worse and worse.

    Why do I remember his San Fran Giants teams always overachieving? That must have been a figment of my imagination.

  12. #41
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Yeah because it would've been HORRIBLE to have him here another year. This is dumb.
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  13. #42
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    they especially like to see him when they can't give up a hit, or else need a strikeout/popup.
    Yeah, they "especially" like him so much that they won't give him anything to hit. Of the pitches Dunn's seen in 2008, only 44.8% have been strikes (that's a career low). You think pitchers are giving him a higher percentage of Strikes in key situations? If not, then that's a player opposing pitchers are very very scared of and the hitters following him really don't come into play.

    You're so far off base there, you pretty much have to start re-learning the game. 100+ Runs Created guys aren't "luxuries". They're centerpieces.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  14. #43
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Yeah, they "especially" like him so much that they won't give him anything to hit. Of the pitches Dunn's seen in 2008, only 44.8% have been strikes (that's a career low). You think pitchers are giving him a higher percentage of Strikes in key situations? If not, then that's a player opposing pitchers are very very scared of and the hitters following him really don't come into play.

    You're so far off base there, you pretty much have to start re-learning the game. 100+ Runs Created guys aren't "luxuries". They're centerpieces.
    42 guys "created" 100+ runs last year.
    52 "created" 100+ runs in 2006.
    40 "created" 100+ runs in 2005.

    I wouldn't use 100 as my "centerpiece" line. That number is a little low, IMO.

  15. #44
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    42 guys "created" 100+ runs last year.
    52 "created" 100+ runs in 2006.
    40 "created" 100+ runs in 2005.

    I wouldn't use 100 as my "centerpiece" line. That number is a little low, IMO.
    And that would be less than 2 hitters per team.

    On average there is only 1.5 hitters per team with 100+ RC. I would call that a centerpiece.

    Or does centerpiece have to be an Albert Pujols or Babe Ruth?

  16. #45
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    Re: Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    And that would be less than 2 hitters per team.

    On average there is only 1.5 hitters per team with 100+ RC. I would call that a centerpiece.

    Or does centerpiece have to be an Albert Pujols or Babe Ruth?
    Not really...centerpieces, to me, mean elite. Top 20 kind of guy. Saying a guy is 40-50th most productive wouldn't really tell me that the guy is a centerpiece.

    Now I know that Dunn is one of the more consistent guys in this area, as some people fluctuate back and forth over the 100 level. That's a plus for him. But I still think that centerpiece is a little strong of a word for this number.


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