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Thread: OBP

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    OBP

    There has been plenty of talk about the 2009 catcher, SS, this and that.

    Current OBPs
    Keppinger 312
    Bruce 310
    Phiilips 318

    The current Reds team is seriously OBP challenged. I don't care as much how the do it but it is a huge problem that needs to be fixed to move forward. Guys like Bruce and Phillips at this stage are 6-7 type hitters, not top of the order guys. Phillips will never be one although Bruce could develop into a 3-4-5 type hitter over time.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    The Reds team OBP for the season, excluding Dunn and Griffey, is around .310 this year. Two things need to happen heading into 2009: current hitters who will be around next season must improve their OBP, and Walt needs to fill the team's holes with some guys who can post a solid OBP.

    Otherwise, this offense will be a black hole of boredom and tears while the losses mount.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    There has been plenty of talk about the 2009 catcher, SS, this and that.

    Current OBPs
    Keppinger 312
    Bruce 310
    Phiilips 318

    The current Reds team is seriously OBP challenged. I don't care as much how the do it but it is a huge problem that needs to be fixed to move forward. Guys like Bruce and Phillips at this stage are 6-7 type hitters, not top of the order guys. Phillips will never be one although Bruce could develop into a 3-4-5 type hitter over time.
    Agreed 100%. For all the talk about losing Dunn's 40 HRs, the loss of his OBP may be even more devastating. I think Phillips will always struggle with the OBP, but I expect Keppinger, Bruce, Votto, and EE all to produce .340+. That, combined with getting rid of the horrifically low OBP from Patterson and Bako would go a long ways.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member top6's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Dunn's OBP was .371 his rookie year. Kearns's was .407. Just to compare Bruce to previous saviors.

  6. #5
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by top6 View Post
    Dunn's OBP was .371 his rookie year. Kearns's was .407. Just to compare Bruce to previous saviors.
    Bruce is a different type hitter but his minor league numbers showed a tendency to hack which major league pitchers have taken full advantage of. For him to reach his potential a lot more plate discipline is needed ... but Dusty loves hackers.

    BTW, Bruce's debut has certainly been much less impressive than Dunn/Kearns ... hmm.

    I honestly don't think this organization values OBP much at all.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  7. #6
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by top6 View Post
    Dunn's OBP was .371 his rookie year. Kearns's was .407. Just to compare Bruce to previous saviors.
    I'm not worried about Bruce's OBP this year, but people need to realize it has to go up ... otherwise his slugging will have a very low ceiling and people will be very disappointed. If he can boost his OBP, his SLG will explode. That's pretty much as safe a guarantee as you can get.

    If you're OBP'ing .370, you have a decent chance to slug .550. If you're OBP'ing .340, you have almost no chance to slug .550. With extreme rare exception, guys who OBP low but slug high just don't exist.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

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    Member top6's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    I think I said this before, but the hiring of Dusty was not terrible only because Dusty is a bad manager. It was far more troubling because it was a symptom of major problems at the heart of the organization - and one of those problems is a complete failure to place the proper value on OBP.

    So, yeah, I pretty much tried to turn this into a Dunn and Dusty thread. Because God knows Redzone needs more of those. But I do think Dunn and Dusty "clog the bases" Baker are the symbols of this team's failure to understand OBP.

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    Re: OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'm not worried about Bruce's OBP this year, but people need to realize it has to go up ... otherwise his slugging will have a very low ceiling and people will be very disappointed. If he can boost his OBP, his SLG will explode. That's pretty much as safe a guarantee as you can get.

    If you're OBP'ing .370, you have a decent chance to slug .550. If you're OBP'ing .340, you have almost no chance to slug .550. With extreme rare exception, guys who OBP low but slug high just don't exist.
    OK, just a little experiment to see how concerned we should be. Because I think OBP is something that is fairly predictable, and is something that we should be extremely concerned about with Bruce.

    We obviously expect Bruce to be a star hitter. Here are the top 20 MLB hitters by OPS - the kind of hitter we expect Bruce to be - and their rookie year OBP. (I'm arbitrarily decreeing that the first year with 30+ games is their rookie year.)

    Chipper Jones - .353 (1995)
    Albert Pujols - .403 (2001)
    Lance Berkman - .321 (1999)
    Milton Bradley - .288 (2000)
    Matt Holliday - .349 (2004)
    Alex Rodriguez - .264 (1995) (but it was .414 next year)
    Ryan Ludwick - .299 (2003)
    Manny Ramirez - .357 (1994)
    Kevin Youkilis - .367 (2004)
    Carlos Quentin - .342 (2006)
    Xavier Nady - .321 (2003)
    Chase Utley - .322 (2003)
    Pat Burrell - .359 (2000)
    Carlos Lee - .312 (1999)
    Jermaine Dye - .304 (1996)
    J.D. Drew - .340 (1999)
    Brian McCann - .345 (2005)
    Ryan Braun - .370 (2007)
    Mark Teixeira - .331 (2003)
    Josh Hamilton - .368 (2007)
    So to the extent we can tell anything from this pointless exercise, and we can't really tell anything, it's that most star hitters have a decent OBP their rookie year, although a few (such as the ones in bold) don't. Obviously, it's not time to give up, but I think showing some concern Bruce's inability to get on base thus far is appropriate.

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    With Bruce in particular, I think it's important to consider age here. Plate discipline is often a late developing skill and the guys is still extremely young. Yes, it needs to improve, but I have every confidence it will.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Look at the players who are (hopefully) gone after this year: Javier Valentin, Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, etc.

    That should help quite a bit.

  12. #11
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Look at the players who are (hopefully) gone after this year: Javier Valentin, Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, etc.

    That should help quite a bit.
    not if the three guys named above are playing everyday and continue to bat 2-3-4. I don't mind if they want to play them everyday but they ought to be 5-6-7.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: OBP

    Not putting it all at his feet, but Jacoby needs to go. There's no reason to throw these hitters anything close to the plate.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  14. #13
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    the entire staff needs to go. Let Jocketty bring in his own people, that's the way it is supposed to work.

    When Castellini fired Krivsky he should have known he was signing up for an entirely new field staff for 2009.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  15. #14
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    With Bruce in particular, I think it's important to consider age here. Plate discipline is often a late developing skill and the guys is still extremely young. Yes, it needs to improve, but I have every confidence it will.
    100% agreed.

  16. #15
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Agreed 100%. For all the talk about losing Dunn's 40 HRs, the loss of his OBP may be even more devastating. I think Phillips will always struggle with the OBP, but I expect Keppinger, Bruce, Votto, and EE all to produce .340+. That, combined with getting rid of the horrifically low OBP from Patterson and Bako would go a long ways.

    Arenít most of these below their career norms or three year stats?
    I donít understand how so many can go bad at the same time, any theories?

    Code:
    August
    	         BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
    J. Keppinger    .167 	.212 		.229 .441
    B. Phillips     .184 	.245 		.429 .674
    E. Encarnacion 	.156 	.255 		.311 .566
    Jay Bruce 	.250 	.264 		.577 .841
    Paul Bako 	.211 	.286 		.263 .549
    C. Patterson 	.268 	.286 		.488 .774
    Joey Votto 	.333 	.355 		.467 .822
    Opponents 	.307 	.367 		.504 .871
    
    July 
    		 BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
    C. Patterson 	.111 	.158 		.111 .269
    J. Keppinger 	.206 	.238 		.258 .495
    Paul Bako 	.196 	.260 		.217 .477
    Jay Bruce 	.253 	.282 		.384 .665 
    B. Phillips 	.278 	.330 		.402 .732
    Joey Votto 	.261 	.337 		.352 .689
    E. Encarnacion 	.291 	.367 		.620 .987
    Opponents 	.277 	.342 		.445 .788
    
    June
    		  BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
    C. Patterson 	.156 	.156 		.311 .467 
    Paul Bako 	.151 	.224 		.283 .507 
    Jay Bruce 	.223 	.274 		.340 .614 
    B. Phillips 	.262 	.304 		.374 .678 
    Joey Votto 	.257 	.315 		.386 .701 
    J. Keppinger 	.296 	.406 		.370 .777 
    E. Encarnacion 	.294 	.422 		.603 1.025 
    Opponents 	.274 	.344 		.461 .805
    
    June
    		 BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
    C. Patterson 	.180 	.180 		.197 .377
    E. Encarnacion 	.172 	.228 		.247 .475
    Paul Bako 	.186 	.262 		.305 .567
    B. Phillips 	.292 	.342 		.557 .898
    Joey Votto 	.281 	.385 		.528 .913
    J. Keppinger 	.400 	.447 		.543 .990
    Jay Bruce 	.579 	.680 		.895 1.575
    Opponents 	.278 	.347 		.455 .802
    Code:
    Career
    		 BA  	 OBP 		 SLG  OPS
    J. Keppinger 	.289 	.343 		.400 .744
    B. Phillips 	.264 	.309 		.428 .737
    E. Encarnacion 	.266 	.344 		.457 .802
    Joey Votto 	.287 	.348 		.466 .814
    Javier Valentin	.252 	.309 		.402 .711
    C. Patterson 	.254 	.293 		.409 .702
    Hairston Jr.	.260 	.329 		.367 .696
    Paul Bako 	.231 	.304 		.318 .622
    Jay Bruce 	rookie
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 08-15-2008 at 06:25 PM.


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