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Thread: OBP - from the ORG

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    OBP - from the ORG

    first, read this thread for the details:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71129

    but an interesting tidbit:
    """
    I always have been interested in the correlation between OBP and runs scored. OBP has a 0.8340 correlation with runs scored, and batting average has a 0.7244 correlation to runs scored.

    These numbers are from JinAZ's web site: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/...using-ops.html

    Right now, the Reds are 13th in the NL in OBP, and 12th in runs scored.

    The Cards are 2nd in the NL in OBP, and 3rd in runs scored. There is clearly a strong correlation.

    Until the Reds, and their fans, learn this, we will not properly evaluate players. That is why it is troubling to lose Dunn, Ross, and Griffey. These guys were 3 of our top 4 OBP guys. Look at THIS LIST of the Reds on the Baseball Reference web site.
    """

    Anyone who uncervalues OBP, and overvalues BA - really has no clue how to create runs in this day and age.

    There are also some good Dusty quotes on there.

    One thing's for sure, we have plenty of fans who think the same way as Dusty, and they are surely getting what they asked for. Call it "small ball" if you will, but I call it "small scores"...

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    I look at batting average as a substat of SLG%, not as a substat of OBP.

    So a high SLG combined with a high BA means you will be a better, more consistant run producer than somebody with high-SLG, low BA, IMO. For example, a guy with a line of .300/.350/.500 will drive in more runs than a guy with a .250/.350/.500, even though many people with just throw out the OPS and say they're equal hitters.

    I want a team full of guys with high OBPs, high SLG, and high BA. What I don't care about is HRs. To me, that's what "small-ball" means. It means you score your runs by stringing hits together, not by sitting around waiting for a 3-run dinger.

    Some people seem to see batting average as a remnant of baseballs past....something people valued before they knew better. That's not really true. OBP has always been imporant, especially at the top of the order. There's a reason why people thought of Rickey Henderson as the greatest leadoff hitter ever when he played, and Vince Coleman as just a fast player. When Minnesota won the WS in the 90s, people liked Chuck Knoblauch's batting average, but they loved him for his OBP, etc., etc.

    Another point here is that "...this day and age," as you put it, has changed. The steroid era is over. Scoring is decreasing throughout the leauge, and the way you look at stats has to adjust for that.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 08-16-2008 at 05:48 PM.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I look at batting average as a substat of SLG%, not as a substat of OBP.

    So a high SLG combined with a high BA means you will be a better, more consistant run producer than somebody with high-SLG, low BA.

    I want a team full of guys with high OBPs, high SLG, and high BA. What I don't care about is HRs. To me, that's what "small-ball" means. It means you score your runs by stringing hits together, not sitting around waiting for a 3-run dinger.
    But why look at BA? OBP contains BA. BA is such an imperfect and somewhat arbitrary stat, and you have an easier to compute and much better stat in OBP. And with OBP your statement still holds true, and high SLG combined with high OBP is going to out produce someone with a high SLG and low OBP.

    And why wouldn't you like homers? It's a true outcome. It's the one type of batter ball that can't be turned into an out. You can hit a ball solidly, but as long as its in the field of play you're looking to "luck" to not allow it to find a glove. No such worries with a homerun.

    In short, I don't understand the preference for way runs are scored. Three run homers, 5 consecutive singles, I don't care how they score (as long as an out isn't made) I love them all. I guess I don't understand having a preference in the way the runner crosses the plate, I just want the Reds runners to cross more often than the other teams.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Well one thing's for sure, the Reds won't be hitting many 3 run homers anymore - there will be WAY WAY less people on base these days.

    The Reds had 5 HR"s in the Pittsburgh Series, with only ONE of them non-solo. They scored 4 other runs the "small ball" way. Luckily, those 5 hits WERE homers, or we wouldn't have been able to score hardly anything at all...

    Maybe if CFP had hit it over the fence instead of getting one of those Cherished "Sacrifice Flys" we could have beat St. Louis?

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    Last edited by BLEEDS; 08-16-2008 at 06:02 PM.
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by 4-28 View Post
    But why look at BA? OBP contains BA. BA is such an imperfect and somewhat arbitrary stat, and you have an easier to compute and much better stat in OBP. And with OBP your statement still holds true, and high SLG combined with high OBP is going to out produce someone with a high SLG and low OBP.
    It's not exactly contained in OBP. OBP values a single and a walk equally, but a single will often drive in a run, and a walk won't. Somehow that has to be accounted for. There are sabermetric stats that account for it, but they're usually a pain to get ahold of, so for quick reference I look at BA to account for it.

    And why wouldn't you like homers?
    Home runs are inconsistent. You'll get 3 home runs one game, none the next.

    OBP is overrated as well, if you ignore SLG, because high-OBP/low-SLG = high LOB. But I think SLG is flawed, in that it overvalues HRs and undervalues singles. So I look at BA as a secondary stat to SLG, to correct what I think is a flaw in the stat.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 08-16-2008 at 06:09 PM.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I look at batting average as a substat of SLG%, not as a substat of OBP.

    So a high SLG combined with a high BA means you will be a better, more consistant run producer than somebody with high-SLG, low BA, IMO. For example, a guy with a line of .300/.350/.500 will drive in more runs than a guy with a .250/.350/.500, even though many people with just throw out the OPS and say they're equal hitters.

    I want a team full of guys with high OBPs, high SLG, and high BA. What I don't care about is HRs. To me, that's what "small-ball" means. It means you score your runs by stringing hits together, not by sitting around waiting for a 3-run dinger.


    Some people seem to see batting average as a remnant of baseballs past....something people valued before they knew better. That's not really true. OBP has always been imporant, especially at the top of the order. There's a reason why people thought of Rickey Henderson as the greatest leadoff hitter ever when he played, and Vince Coleman as just a fast player. When Minnesota won the WS in the 90s, people liked Chuck Knoblauch's batting average, but they loved him for his OBP, etc., etc.

    Another point here is that "...this day and age," as you put it, has changed. The steroid era is over. Scoring is decreasing throughout the leauge, and the way you look at stats has to adjust for that.
    The problem is we can't afford a team of those guys, we will be lucky to have 1 or 2 in our lineup, so we have to find other ways to score runs beside having a bunch of stud hitters. Ultimately it would be nice in our current situation moneywise to have 2 guys with high numbers in BA, AVG, and SLG in the 3 and 4 spot, hopefully Bruce will be one of these and Yonder the other. Then we have Phillips with a fairly high BA, low obp, and good slg hit in the 5 or 6 spot. EdE has a solid OBP, but weak BA, good SLG. Based off these right now the lineup should be constructed something of the following:

    1st - Dickerson
    2nd - EdE - not very good with RISP, decent at getting on
    3rd- Votto - best pure hitter right now, hits against L/R well
    4th - Bruce - him and BPhill are free swingers with low OBP's, get them up with runners on so they can hack and make something happen
    5th - BPhil - Flip with Bruce against Lefties

    At this point the rest of the lineup doesn't matter because none should be in our starting lineup next year. Except maybe Hanigan.

    The rest of the lineup needs to be guys who have a good balance of OBP and Defense in LF, SS, and C Because if they have a high BA also, they are going to be 8-10 million players that we can't afford, especially if we get the one bopper in the 4 spot who can do it all. Bruce and BPhil should be 5th and 6th until they learn how to hit .310 or take a walk.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 08-16-2008 at 06:54 PM.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by 4-28 View Post
    But why look at BA? OBP contains BA. BA is such an imperfect and somewhat arbitrary stat, and you have an easier to compute and much better stat in OBP. And with OBP your statement still holds true, and high SLG combined with high OBP is going to out produce someone with a high SLG and low OBP.

    And why wouldn't you like homers? It's a true outcome. It's the one type of batter ball that can't be turned into an out. You can hit a ball solidly, but as long as its in the field of play you're looking to "luck" to not allow it to find a glove. No such worries with a homerun.

    In short, I don't understand the preference for way runs are scored. Three run homers, 5 consecutive singles, I don't care how they score (as long as an out isn't made) I love them all. I guess I don't understand having a preference in the way the runner crosses the plate, I just want the Reds runners to cross more often than the other teams.

    OBP is just as arbitrary. I would like to see more situational stats on walks. If Dunn comes up with 2 out, and you're behind the count 2-0, 2-1, and the bases are empty and you have someone like Paul Bako, Javier Valentine, Encarnacion, etc behind him - what are you going to do? Why do they give much fo a crap if they walk Dunn in that situation? I mean, most pitchers probably figure, well we got a guy with a high K rate here, just throw him some off the plate stuff and if he goes fishing, then fine. If not, fine too, because the Reds don't have any hitters worth a crap to protect him.

    I can see the point in you would rather get an extra base hit than a HR in a rally situation. Down 3 in the ninth, you start off with a solo shot, great. You cut it to 2, its the best one AB result you can have. But also, you don't put much pressure on the pitcher, and you don't string hits together. He gives up a mistake HR, no biggie, he comes back out, doesn't have to worry about a runner on base, doesn't have to worry about putting two on and then being in a REAL tight spot.

    I think thats one of the psychological aspects of it, get momentum going your way by filling the basepads and putting more and more pressure on the batter. I think its all about momentum. The same reason why in basketball when another team goes on a significant run, the coach calls timeout to put a stop to the momentum. A leadoff homerun doesn't tend to build momentum when you're down several runs. I think thats the philosophy behind it.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    The problem is we can't afford a team of those guys, we will be lucky to have 1 or 2 in our lineup, so we have to find other ways to score runs beside having a bunch of stud hitters.
    I'm not saying you have to have all-stars at every position, I'm talking about an approach to team building. It's how you look at things.

    For example: Do you see EE as having a better year at the plate this year or last year? His OPS is about the same, but his HRs are up and his BA is down. I'd rather have the EE from 2007, all else being equal.

    Or who do you see as a better prospect: Danny Dorn with his power or Chris Dickerson with his speed and defense? Both of them have good OBP skills, but I want a Dickerson type. That's not a perfect example because Dorn is a lot younger and has a better OPS, but it illustrates the point.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 08-16-2008 at 09:12 PM.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by LouisvilleCARDS View Post
    I think thats one of the psychological aspects of it, get momentum going your way by filling the basepads and putting more and more pressure on the batter. I think its all about momentum. The same reason why in basketball when another team goes on a significant run, the coach calls timeout to put a stop to the momentum. A leadoff homerun doesn't tend to build momentum when you're down several runs. I think thats the philosophy behind it.
    Bringing the psychology into it adds a whole other dimension. For most players, if you go up to bat looking for a walk you probably won't get a walk or a hit, you'll probably strike out. That's not to say you should always be aggressive. Lot's of guys want to work deep in the count. But they don't go deep because they're trying to get walked, they do it because they want to put the pitcher in a position where he has to throw a strike. You get a lot of mistake pitches that you can really rip that way.

    Another example where the mental aspect seems to contradict the numbers on the surface is this: Suppose you're up against a guy who's had the whole team's number all game. You maybe get a slider outside and a little off the plate that you really lock on to, get really good wood on, but try to pull it because you got ahead of yourself and hit a routine grounder to the shortstop. Now, the sabermetric people will say you failed because you made an out, and you did, but you can't wait until the next at-bat because you "saw it," it's your pitch now and the next time you see it you know that all you have to do is be a little more patient and drive it the other way. So the next at-bat you hit a homerun to right-center. The stats don't tell you that that homerun was predicated on the fact that you swung at a pitch the previous at-bat maybe you should have layed off of....that is, if you were looking for a walk.

    I guess my point is, just because the numbers tell you X or Y is going to win more games, that doesn't mean you go up to bat with that outcome in mind. People say Brandon Phillips should be more selective, but maybe if he tried to be more selective he wouldn't be able to hit the broad side of a barn. You just can't always know what's going to work from player to player and situation to situation.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 08-16-2008 at 10:00 PM.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    It's not exactly contained in OBP. OBP values a single and a walk equally, but a single will often drive in a run, and a walk won't. Somehow that has to be accounted for. There are sabermetric stats that account for it, but they're usually a pain to get ahold of, so for quick reference I look at BA to account for it.


    Home runs are inconsistent. You'll get 3 home runs one game, none the next.

    OBP is overrated as well, if you ignore SLG, because high-OBP/low-SLG = high LOB. But I think SLG is flawed, in that it overvalues HRs and undervalues singles. So I look at BA as a secondary stat to SLG, to correct what I think is a flaw in the stat.
    For your first point, that's what SLG is for. It gives you the difference in the value of a walk, single, double, etc. I have more problems with the stat that values a sac bunt or a sac fly the same amount as a walk.

    And the second argument doesn't hold water, while they may be inconsistent, there still the best hit there is. And the same could be said for singles, doubles, and triples. Hell, hits in general. A player will get 4 one night and none the next.

    Finally, in no way is OBP overrated. It tells you how many outs a person makes, that's it. And the point of the game is to not make outs. I'm still trying to figure out how SLG overrates homers compared to singles. It takes three singles to score a run under the best case, when you only have a 30% probability of getting a hit, stringing three together without 3 outs first occurs about the same amount of times as hitting a homerun does.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by LouisvilleCARDS View Post
    OBP is just as arbitrary. I would like to see more situational stats on walks. If Dunn comes up with 2 out, and you're behind the count 2-0, 2-1, and the bases are empty and you have someone like Paul Bako, Javier Valentine, Encarnacion, etc behind him - what are you going to do? Why do they give much fo a crap if they walk Dunn in that situation? I mean, most pitchers probably figure, well we got a guy with a high K rate here, just throw him some off the plate stuff and if he goes fishing, then fine. If not, fine too, because the Reds don't have any hitters worth a crap to protect him.

    I can see the point in you would rather get an extra base hit than a HR in a rally situation. Down 3 in the ninth, you start off with a solo shot, great. You cut it to 2, its the best one AB result you can have. But also, you don't put much pressure on the pitcher, and you don't string hits together. He gives up a mistake HR, no biggie, he comes back out, doesn't have to worry about a runner on base, doesn't have to worry about putting two on and then being in a REAL tight spot.

    I think thats one of the psychological aspects of it, get momentum going your way by filling the basepads and putting more and more pressure on the batter. I think its all about momentum. The same reason why in basketball when another team goes on a significant run, the coach calls timeout to put a stop to the momentum. A leadoff homerun doesn't tend to build momentum when you're down several runs. I think thats the philosophy behind it.
    How is OBP arbitrary? It measures the amount of times you come to the plate and get on-base, excluding instances that a batter gets on through a fielding error. That's it, no arbitrary measures. BA on the other hand doesn't count walks, or flyouts that advance a runner from third, but it does count flyouts that advance a runner from second to third. But if you turn the bat sideways, it doesn't count that PA as long as the runner advances. But it does count a swinging groundout that advances the runner. Where is there any logic in there?

    As for Dunn, this wasn't about him, but in you're case, how's that Dunn's fault? Blame Dusty's awful lineups, inept general managers for not surrounding him with talent, or the baseball gods for not decreeing you cannot pitch around a player, but it's anyone but Adam Dunn's fault in your hypothetical.

    And as for momentum building in your situation, you've just got a run in!!! In your hypothetical case, you're in exactly the same situation you were in, except you're down one less run. Are you actually telling me you'd prefer a single to a homerun in this situation?

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Bringing the psychology into it adds a whole other dimension. For most players, if you go up to bat looking for a walk you probably won't get a walk or a hit, you'll probably strike out. That's not to say you should always be aggressive. Lot's of guys want to work deep in the count. But they don't go deep because they're trying to get walked, they do it because they want to put the pitcher in a position where he has to throw a strike. You get a lot of mistake pitches that you can really rip that way.

    Another example where the mental aspect seems to contradict the numbers on the surface is this: Suppose you're up against a guy who's had the whole team's number all game. You maybe get a slider outside and a little off the plate that you really lock on to, get really good wood on, but try to pull it because you got ahead of yourself and hit a routine grounder to the shortstop. Now, the sabermetric people will say you failed because you made an out, and you did, but you can't wait until the next at-bat because you "saw it," it's your pitch now and the next time you see it you know that all you have to do is be a little more patient and drive it the other way. So the next at-bat you hit a homerun to right-center. The stats don't tell you that that homerun was predicated on the fact that you swung at a pitch the previous at-bat maybe you should have layed off of....that is, if you were looking for a walk.

    I guess my point is, just because the numbers tell you X or Y is going to win more games, that doesn't mean you go up to bat with that outcome in mind. People say Brandon Phillips should be more selective, but maybe if he tried to be more selective he wouldn't be able to hit the broad side of a barn. You just can't always know what's going to work from player to player and situation to situation.
    I think there is a huge difference in Brandon Phillips in the 4 spot because he feels as if he has to come up big. The Phillips in 2007 was a lot different hitter than this year. That is a big issue with the order and our current team.

    As far as the point you consider...if you were looking for a walk in the situation, you may have layed off the pitch. But most of the time, the player is not going to hit the right center bomb, even if he gets good wood on it. Look at how many line outs Kepp has because his power is so weak. The thing is, if player X gets on base at a .410 clip, and player Y gets on base at a .360 clip, throughout the year, player X will be more beneficial than player Y. I am not a complete moneyball theorist, but in the end...as long as the player is not an extremist (ala Dunn as much as I love him) he will come get the run in more often through the course of the season.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 08-17-2008 at 03:05 AM.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I'm not saying you have to have all-stars at every position, I'm talking about an approach to team building. It's how you look at things.

    For example: Do you see EE as having a better year at the plate this year or last year? His OPS is about the same, but his HRs are up and his BA is down. I'd rather have the EE from 2007, all else being equal.

    Or who do you see as a better prospect: Danny Dorn with his power or Chris Dickerson with his speed and defense? Both of them have good OBP skills, but I want a Dickerson type. That's not a perfect example because Dorn is a lot younger and has a better OPS, but it illustrates the point.
    Easily last year, much better OBP and better RBI's. Also, with out someone telling the team to hack at every pitch. With our ballpark, we do not need all guys who hit for power. We need 1 or 2 guys who can just mash. we need some guys who are just a b**ch to get out but can't hit a homer for their lives. We need some guys who just "clog" the bases and get knocked in. But we need 6 or 7 guys who play good D.

    Dickerson is great if he can manage to cut down on the K's(free outs) and at least make the defense work for an out. In the field he is good, and we definitely need the defense more than anything right now.

    I don't know much about Dorn to be honest, but based on team needs, I would decide whether we needed a guy with OBP more or we needed someone to hit in the middle a knock people in.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Easily last year, much better OBP and better RBI's. Also, with out someone telling the team to hack at every pitch. With our ballpark, we do not need all guys who hit for power. We need 1 or 2 guys who can just mash.
    All respect to your opinion, but I'll never understand this line of thinking. Power (AKA aquiring as many bases as possible per plate appearance) always helps score runs, you can never too much or even enough power, no matter where you play. There is no point of diminishing returns on the correlation between SLG and runs scored that I am aware of.

    Besides, the other team is playing in the same ballpark as you are. GABP increases our HR power the same as it increases theirs. GABP grants no power advantage to Reds players relative to visiting players.

    There is also a very dangerous misconception in that assumption; namely that GABP increases all offense equally. It doesn't. The total park factor numbers for GABP since it's opening are below, with 1.00 being average, anything above 1.00 benefiting the hitter, anything below benefiting the pitcher.

    All Hits - 0.99
    Doubles - 1.01
    Triples - 0.51
    Home Runs - 1.23

    In short, GABP greatly benefits batters with home run power, but actually ever so slightly hurts singles hitters and those with gap power. The more home run power you have in GABP the better off you are.
    Last edited by OUReds; 08-17-2008 at 06:11 AM.

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    Re: OBP - from the ORG

    Quote Originally Posted by 4-28 View Post
    I'm still trying to figure out how SLG overrates homers compared to singles. It takes three singles to score a run under the best case, when you only have a 30% probability of getting a hit, stringing three together without 3 outs first occurs about the same amount of times as hitting a homerun does.
    Three singles scores a run. A homerun scores a run. But SLG gives only 3 TB for the singles, and 4 TB for the homerun, so it's giving more credit to the homerun despite the fact that both cases put one run on the scoreboard.

    Plus, the three singles leave two men on base to be driven in by other players.

    Finally, in no way is OBP overrated...And the point of the game is to not make outs.
    Perfect example of OBP being overrated. The point of the game is to score runs, not to "not make outs." You're ignoring LOB, just like I said a lot of people do. That's why OBP has to be looked at alongside SLG (and to some degree, by BA, since SLG overrates HRs). The guys that get on base have to be driven in.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 08-17-2008 at 10:57 AM.


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