At the risk of starting a potential 500 post thread I'm going to throw this out anyway. Up for discussion is Erardi's article today on Adam Dunn and the stat OBI%. For those that don't get the local paper it can be found here:
What I object to in these stat heavy articles is how misleading they can be based upon which stats the author decides to omit. The article centers around the OBI % stat which I actually think is a very useful one. It shows the percentage of runners on base that a hitter drives in. It correctly states that league average is about 14% from year to year.
The first problem I have with Erardi is he lists the following:
To me this gives the impression that Dunn is among the league leaders in OBI%, maybe even 6th. I think it would have been much more useful if he'd labeled the league rankings of these players. If so I believe Dunn would have been ranked about 28th in the league (assuming a min of 400 PAs), not 6th as can be implied from that table.So, how does Dunn compare to the league leaders in RBI this year?
Player ROB OBI OBI% HR-RBI
Ryan Howard 373 70 18.8 33-103
Carlos Lee 358 72 20.1 28-100
David Wright 394 71 18.0 23-94
Ryan Ludwick 326 60 18.4 30-90
Adrian Gonzalez 361 61 16.9 28 -89
Adam Dunn* 269 42 15.6 32-74
* with Reds
He begins the article with this:
Yet he doesn't mention Dunn's OBI% stats for the past four years. In fact he only refers to 2007 and 2008 which happen to be much higher than any other year in Dunn's career. In fact if you take 14% as a league average then Dunn has been below the league average for most of his career here in Cincinnati.How can one hit 40 home runs for four straight years and never drive in more than 106 runs?
In 2006 there were 6 Reds starters with OBI% higher than Dunn's. In 2005 every Reds starter except for Sean Casey (and Ryan Freel is you want to count him as a starter) was above him in OBI%. During Wily Mo Pena's days with the Reds he continually had a higher OBI% than Dunn.
This article doesn't mention any of that yet it's very pertinent to Dunn's overall career as a Red.
The gist of the article should have been that Dunn has traditionally been very poor at OBI% but to his credit he has improved his game in 2007-08 to be above league average.
So Mr Erardi there are OBI% reasons why some Cincinnati fans have issues with Dunn's ability to drive in runs.
It seems to me that Erardi is not interested in e-mails due to the fact his e-mail address is not listed in the paper not is it easily found on their website. When I have attempted to e-mail him in the past he's not returned them.
Bear in mind folks my problem is not with Dunn here. I'm going to miss him. It's with Erardi and his stat cronies who chose to cherrypick their stats to come to a preconceived conclusion and I think that's disingenuous. This is not about OBPs, defense or salary or anything other than analyzing OBI% as it relates to Adam Dunn as a Red. I'll also go on record as saying kudos to Dunn for his current OBI% above 15. That's very good and shows improvement on his part.