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Thread: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

  1. #46
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    OK. I have a list that always is changing. I'm finally convinced that Stubbs is a good prospect now. I excluded Bailey and Dickerson as ineligible and many of the rookie league guys were not considered though I rounded out the list with a couple that have most caught my attention. Not many star level guys IMO but a lot of depth (hopefully some will be dealt for a major league player or two).

    Code:
    Rank	Name	        POS	H/P	09 Age	09 Lvl	Comment
    1	Todd Frazier	3B??	R	23	AAA	Good All Around Bat
    2	Yonder Alonso	1B	L	22	AA??	Mid Line-up Force
    3	Neftali Soto	3B	R	20	A+	Hit Machine
    4	Josh Roenicke	RP	R	26	MLB	Power Set-up guy
    5	Drew Stubbs	OF	R	24	AAA	Useful all around OF with glove, showing more pop as advancing
    6	Kyle Lotzkar	SP	R	19	A+	Future #2 if health holds
    7	Daniel Dorn	OF	L	24	AAA	Platoon Power Bat
    8	Zach Cozart	SS	R	23	A+	Alex Gonzalez, the sequel???
    9	Daryl Thompson	SP	R	23	AAA	Mid Rotation Starter??
    10	Devin Mesoraco	C	R	20	A+	Needs to be able to stick at C
    11	Sean Henry	OF	R	23	AAA	RH platoon Bat, 4th OF
    12	Zach Stewart	RP	R	22	AA	Power Set-up guy
    13	Chris Valaika	2B	R	23	AAA	Needs to stick in MI on D for bat to be useful
    14	Juan Francisco	3B??	S	21	AA	Big power but could stall, prime trade bait
    15	Mace Thurman	RP	L	22	A+	Lefty Set-up man
    16	Carlos Fisher	RP	R	26	AAA	Multi Inning Middle Man
    17	Brandon Waring	3B	R	23	A+	Power, better OBP than Francisco, less upside
    18	Chris Heisey	OF	R	24	AA	4th OF
    19	S. Cumberland	OF	L	24	AAA	4th or 5th OF, useful LH Bat
    20	Matt Maloney	SP	L	25	AAA	Back of Rotation LH
    21	Dallas Buck	SP	R	24	AA	Mid Rotation Starter
    22	Adam Rosales	IF	R	26	AAA	Super sub
    23	Danny Herrera	RP	L	24	MLB	Change of Pace LH, how long will it fool them?
    24	Sean Watson	RP	R	23	AAA	Power Set-up guy with control issues
    25	Ramon Ramirez	SP	R	26	AAA	Swing Man
    26	Scott Carroll	SP	R	24	A+	Finesse guy, needs more K's but Back of Rotation Possibility
    27	Sam Lecure	SP	R	25	AAA	Back of Rotation Inning Eater
    28	Ben Jukich	SP	L	26	AAA	Lefty Long Man
    29	Robert Manual	RP	R	25	AAA	Results look good
    30	Ryan Hanigan	C	R	28	MLB	Ok so far. Still think he's probably a back-up
    31	Logan Parker	1B	L	24	AA	Good bat but old for level, the next Ross Gload??
    32	Jeremy Horst	RP	L	23	A+	High K Lefty with Grounders
    33	Matthew Klinker	SP	R	24	A+	Needs to miss more bats
    34	Paul Janish	SS	R	26	AAA	Glove could carve out a career
    35	Pedro Viola	RP	L	25	AAA	Situational Lefty
    36	Justin Turner	2B	R	24	AAA	AAAA Guy
    37	Phil Valiquette	RP	L	22	AA	Situational Lefty if he can make it
    38	Joseph Krebs	RP	L	24	A+	Lefty with Grounders and some Ks.
    39	Wilkin Castillo	C	S	24	MLB	Versatility good or does it mean he's inadequate at C?
    40	Travis Wood	SP	L	22	AA	Boom or Bust in 2009, skeptical of little guys holding up
    41	Tonys Gutierrez	1B	L	25	AAA	On Base Skills, will they translate without more POP, Hatte 2??
    42	Terrell Young	RP	R	23	AA	Good so far
    43	Alex Smit	SP	L	23	AA	Too Many Fly Balls??
    44	Danny Richar	IF	L	25	AAA	Suspect at this point
    45	Josh Ravin	SP?	R	21	A-	Big arm
    46	Ramon Geronimo	RP	R	25	AA	Good results, needs to advance
    47	Craig Tatum	C	R	26	AAA	Defensive Back-up at best
    48	Tyler Pelland	RP	L	25	AAA	Power lefty with no control
    49	David Sappelt	OF	R	22	A	Probably moves way up once he reaches full season ball
    50	Alex Buchholz	2B	R	21	A	Probably moves way up once he reaches full season ball
    Last edited by mth123; 08-30-2008 at 01:30 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #47
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Cool list. I like some of the surprises.

    Mace Thurman, Matt Klinker, Phil Valiquette, Terrell Young, and Dave Sappelt are a few guys I'm surprised to see.

  4. #48
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Thanks for posting the list. I think I'd put Valaika a bit higher, definitely top 10. I thought scouts now say that his bat will play anywhere, not just in the MI. I think I'd also flip Yonder and Frazier, mostly because of upside.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Because of injury issues, I think Thompson and Lotzkar are too high. I'd have Dorn, Cozart, Mesoraco and Roenicke several spots lower. Valaika, Heisey, Francisco higher.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #50
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Because of injury issues, I think Thompson and Lotzkar are too high. I'd have Dorn, Cozart, Mesoraco and Roenicke several spots lower. Valaika, Heisey, Francisco higher.
    Can't really argue much. After the top 3 there are a bunch of guys who could go anywhere between 4 and 15. I like Roenicke to be an 8th inning shut down guy like Joel Zumaya or Jonathon Broxton. I like Dorn as a LH platoon with power and patience. I think Cozart could be a starting SS with some power and plus defense. I gave those three the nod because I think they are more likely to be what we envision as opposed to the others. I've been dropping Mesoraco down but if he can stay at C he's pretty valuable as a trading chip at least.

    I like Heisey a lot and have been moving him up from basically nowhere to the top 20 and he will climb some more if he keeps it up. I need to see more. I think Francisco is a guy who may stall as he moves up the ladder. At best I see him as Pedro Feliz (which is OK for a prospect). Valaika strikes me as a .750ish OPS guy in the big leagues and his glove will be what makes him or breaks him. If he can play good 2B, he'll be valuable. If he is a liability there or worse yet has to be moved to a corner, he becomes a replacement level guy IMO. Francisco and Valaika would be the top two prospects on my list of guys to trade for help at other positions.

    You may be right about Lotzkar and Thompson. I'm holding them high until I see how they do next year.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    By far the most important omission, IMO, is Evan Hildenbrandt.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    mth123, if there's one player from your list that I really disagree with you on, it would have to be Sean Henry. I realize that his numbers have been top notch, but with his small frame, I just don't see how he could have enough of an impact at the Major League level to warrant being the #11 prospect in the organization. I think he'd make a good reserve outfielder who could OPS in the .700s, but I wouldn't feel right if I listed him immediately after Devin Mesoraco, a number one pick out of high school who has been impressive with the bat as a catcher.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post

    After listening to the Louisville Bats announcer on Lance's show a week or so back, I believe the Reds are manipulating Roenicke's numbers to make him look good as trade bait. The announcer (can't remember his name, but he has been up with the Reds and done a few games) said the Bats haven't put Roenicke in any games with men already on base. He only comes in at the beginning of an inning.
    That's no way to manipulate a relievers numbers. Actually, it's just the opposite.

    Runners on base make no difference really, as they don't count against you if the score anyway. And since you always have a chance at a DP, having runners on abse (belonging to others) actually increases your chance of having a better ERA. You can get two outs with one batter without risk of that runner effecting your ERA>

    Starting a releiver at the beginning of an inning (as opposed to with 1 our 2 outs) also increases his chances of giving up a run. it's much easier to get 1 or 2 outs without giving up a run that 3 outs.

    So, starting Josh at the start of an inning with no runner on base increases the chances of him giving up runs on all accounts.

  10. #54
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    MTH, I just can't buy a reliever being that high on the list. Relievers impact on the game is so minimal that even the best of the best aren't as valuable as an every day league average player. With that said, why is Roenicke so much higher than Zach Stewart? They are very similar players, except Stewart is much younger.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    By far the most important omission, IMO, is Evan Hildenbrandt.
    Good call. He's been very impressive. Shea Snowden was robbed, too. I would also like to say that Justin Reed should be added.

    And what's with leaving out Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez? Because they're so young?

    Some others guys I would consider: Derrik Lutz (good stuff; I wish someone would explain where his command went this year), Byron Wiley (absolutely mashing the ball in Billings), Andrew Bowman (a real sleeper around here; his numbers have been terrible, but he has a lot of potential), Tony Brown (nice power), Cody Puckett (looks kind of like a Justin Turner type), Tzu-Kai Chiu (very good control; left-handed starter who has battled injury this year), Sean Conner (has good potential but is struggling this year; maybe it's an adjustment period thing), Alex Oliveras (good tools and appears to be putting them together after last year's terrible start).

  12. #56
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    By far the most important omission, IMO, is Evan Hildenbrandt.
    Had Hildenbrandt on there and chose to exclude guys not in full season leagues. I added Buchholz and Sappelt at the end to round out to 50. I agree that Hildenbrandt is a guy to watch and when he gets there he could be a force. I should have exlcuded Ravin too, but he did have some time at Dayton and has been around a little longer.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #57
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    MTH, I just can't buy a reliever being that high on the list. Relievers impact on the game is so minimal that even the best of the best aren't as valuable as an every day league average player. With that said, why is Roenicke so much higher than Zach Stewart? They are very similar players, except Stewart is much younger.
    I've never agreed with this. Nasty shut down type relievers have a huge effect. The 1990 Season was basically a championship that belonged to the bullpen for the most part. Rijo was a stud at the end, and Davis, Hatcher and O'Niell were heroes in the play-offs, but Dibble, Charlton and Myers were the keys to the wire to wire season. The Big Red Machine wasn't known for its pitching, but the staffs were always near the top of the league with only Don Gullett a true top starter. The others were successful because a strong deep pen enabled sparky to get them out of there with a lead after six. The 70s era starters have many wins thanks to guys like Carroll, Borbon, Eastwick, McEnaney, Hall, Granger, etc. We've also recently seen how much a season can be trashed by not having them. Teams (especially the Reds of this decade) seem to spend a lot of time, talent and money to acquire relievers that are the caliber that I believe that Roenicke, Stewart and maybe even Thurman can be. Its quite valuable to have them and not to have to go looking for them IMO. The main reason for the disparity in the rankings is because I think Roenicke is ready now (and has more market value as a result) while the others are guys that will need another year or two.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    mth123, if there's one player from your list that I really disagree with you on, it would have to be Sean Henry. I realize that his numbers have been top notch, but with his small frame, I just don't see how he could have enough of an impact at the Major League level to warrant being the #11 prospect in the organization. I think he'd make a good reserve outfielder who could OPS in the .700s, but I wouldn't feel right if I listed him immediately after Devin Mesoraco, a number one pick out of high school who has been impressive with the bat as a catcher.
    I like Henry to be a useful platoon guy or 4th OF type for a long time. I think he is more likely to fill that role successfully than guys like Valaika or Francisco are to fill their roles. Guys that can hit and have other skills are rare. Henry looks more likely to carry it to the big leagues than many of the others. He's had more success at a higher level. Henry is fairly slight though at 154 pounds, so that may be a valid concern.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #59
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I've never agreed with this. Nasty shut down type relievers have a huge effect. The 1990 Season was basically a championship that belonged to the bullpen for the most part. Rijo was a stud at the end, and Davis, Hatcher and O'Niell were heroes in the play-offs, but Dibble, Charlton and Myers were the keys to the wire to wire season. The Big Red Machine wasn't known for its pitching, but the staffs were always near the top of the league with only Don Gullett a true top starter. The others were successful because a strong deep pen enabled sparky to get them out of there with a lead after six. The 70s era starters have many wins thanks to guys like Carroll, Borbon, Eastwick, McEnaney, Hall, Granger, etc. We've also recently seen how much a season can be trashed by not having them. Teams (especially the Reds of this decade) seem to spend a lot of time, talent and money to acquire relievers that are the caliber that I believe that Roenicke, Stewart and maybe even Thurman can be. Its quite valuable to have them and not to have to go looking for them IMO. The main reason for the disparity in the rankings is because I think Roenicke is ready now (and has more market value as a result) while the others are guys that will need another year or two.
    While I agree the Reds bullpen in 1990 was one of the big reasons they were as good as they were (to go along with 7 guys with 200+AB's of an OPS + of at least 104), it was because of the entire bullpen, not just one guy. An every day guy that plays defense and gets 4 PA every game is far and away more valuable to the success of a team than a single reliever, no matter how dominant. 600 PA of average offense and average defense is immensely better than 80-90 innings of 2.50 ERA baseball. A bullpen full of guys like that can certainly be a dominating force, but a single guy like that isn't close to being as valuable as an average positional player.

  16. #60
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- August Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    While I agree the Reds bullpen in 1990 was one of the big reasons they were as good as they were, it was because of the entire bullpen, not just one guy. An every day guy that plays defense and gets 4 PA every game is far and away more valuable to the success of a team than a single reliever, no matter how dominant. 600 PA of average offense and average defense is immensely better than 80-90 innings of 2.50 ERA baseball. A bullpen full of guys like that can certainly be a dominating force, but a single guy like that isn't close to being as valuable as an average positional player.
    Basically agree if you think the guy getting the 600 PA is going to be effective enough to be more than an interchangeable part. I think Frazier, Alonso and Soto will be effective in that way. I'm not convinced that any of the others are likely to make a bigger impact or be harder to replace than Roenicke will as an 8th inning guy. As I said, numbers 4 to 15 were all real close IMO and just about any order would be hard for me to argue with. In previous versions of the list I had Stubbs at number 4, Dorn at number 4, and before they were hurt Lotzkar and Thompson at number 4 for a time. In the end, I think Roenicke will be an impact reliever. The others could be useful players, but unless Lotzkar proves to be all the way healthy I'm not sure any will be impact players. I think Dorn and Stubbs are probably the most likely to be impact guys of the other non-pitchers.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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