Well, the difference between Cordero, an average closer, and Brad Lidge is at least 6 wins. I think that's pretty significant. Imagine if Cueto had a 13-2 record.
Well, the difference between Cordero, an average closer, and Brad Lidge is at least 6 wins. I think that's pretty significant. Imagine if Cueto had a 13-2 record.
I doubt that any major league GM or scout would put Francisco as low as he is on the list posted today (14th best prospect). Henry a better prospect than Francisco? No.
Francisco with a question mark at third base? No.
Guy got 34 doubles and 23 homers at age 21 in High A, had an outstanding range factor at third base and a cannon arm. The only Reds prospects possibly better right now are Alonso, Stubbs, Soto, and possibly Frazier (although Francisco - a year younger - stacked up well against Frazier at Sarasota this year).
Top five guys right now are Alonso, Stubbs, Soto, Frazier, Francisco.
Next five guys seem to me as: Lotzkar, Roenicke, Thompson, Valaika, Mesoraco (on reputation).
Also -- Travis Wood and Jordan Smith were advanced quickly to AA this year and took their lumps. Expect one or both to do well at that level next year. Both among top 20-25 Reds prospects.
Last edited by Kc61; 08-30-2008 at 04:24 PM.
Originally Posted by Kc61
I hope you're right about Francisco. I see him as a guy who stalls in AA.
Wood is still young but he's had 2 bad years in a row. I have to see it first. He's very slight on the mound and that doesn't help.
Smith I like better. I missed him. I'd put him around 20 or so.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I think people often conflate the role a guy is in with how well he does it. 300 IP a 2ish ERA is huge regardless of what role it's coming out of. Focus more on the great production and less about what position it's coming from. 70-80 IP of a 3.00 or less ERA is a big help to a team -- certainly more than 200 of a 4.75.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Agree. Using that team as an example, Rob Dibble was more valuable and harder to replace than Billy Hatcher. Though Hatcher played each day and did fairly well, Dibble was still the more valuable property,
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Francisco 21 at A+ .277/.303/.496/.799. Henry 22 at AA .290/.364/.464/.828. I know Sarasota inhibits offense a bit, but 30 Points of OPS at a higher level says something. More importantly, 60 points of OBP says a lot more. It suggests that more advanced pitching may have their way with the lower OBP guy. If Francisco carries those numbers to AA, I'd probably move him up.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I think Fransisco is going to have a HUGE year next year and I mean BIG! but I don't see the walk rate improving much. I think he is gonna produce a line, within the first 6 weeks cause he will be promoted to AAA after his start, of .330/.365/.550 .915 OPS
Maybe, but Henry really looks to top out as a smarter Ryan Freel type, while Francisco has so much more potential than that. Results matter, but in the minors they don't really mean as much as they do in the majors. You are in the minors to learn to play, not to put up the best numbers.
Brandon Larson had much more potential than Ryan Freel. The likelihood of achieving it has to be part of the equation. Francisco's OBP suggests that more advanced picthers will eat him up. Francisco is yet to OPS .800.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Certainly, but a 21 year old with a high ceiling and showing lots of tools in High A gets a nod over a 23 year old in AA that profiles as a decent 4th outfielder type. Francisco has some big issues to overcome with his plate discipline and he might round out the top 10 for me, but Sean Henry just doesn't have much upside to his game.
Only if you think he can approach the ceiling. Since many do, its why I'd deal him for something else.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Brandon Larson was a college player and didn't start getting good minor league numbers until age 23. Francisco has had a big power year at High A ball at age 21.
Larson, by the way, isn't a good example of a high potential player who flamed out. Larson was overdrafted. He was slated as a later pick, but the Reds took him in the first round. (Those were the days when the Reds tried to save money in the draft.)
Francisco's OBP is lower simply as a function of lack of walks. You can call it plate discipline, OBP, OPS, whatever, the issue is the same. And it is an issue.
But the guy has nearly a .500 slugging PCT in over 500 at bats in a league for which he is quite young. That shows special ability.
Francisco's strikeout rate has improved significantly this year. That shows better pitch recognition. The next step is to walk a bit more, which should follow in the normal progression for such a hitter. We'll see.
As for Travis Wood, I don't think it's correct to say he's had two bad years in a row. Wood was hurt last year. This year, both he and Smith had very good years at Sarasota. Their struggles only came after they were both surprisingly promoted rather early in the year.
Last edited by Kc61; 08-30-2008 at 09:06 PM.
I think the point about Francisco is that IF he can learn some plate discipline, he becomes a wonderful prospect, possibly an A prospect, given his power and defense.
But if he doesn't, I don't see how he has much of a future in baseball. Regardless of age, power or defense, you've got to put up better than a .300 OBP in single-A.
It seems understandable, then, that people have all over the place on their boards. You can learn plate discipline, but not everybody does, and I don't know how you can quantify that.
Not necessarily. If a guy cuts down on Ks but doesn't walk more, it could be an indication that he's making better contact, which says nothing about his plate discipline.
I think you have to see the walks go up before you can say there's an improvement in plate discipline with any certainty.
Its not just the walks. If the guy swings at everything, his power will suffer as well. He's got to make pitchers pitch to him. I guess he could be another Vlad, but I'd have to see it first.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
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