Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 17

Thread: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

  1. #1
    Member New Fever's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Memphis
    Posts
    763

    Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Juan Francisco has very bad plate discpline, we all know this. But look at his other stats in a tough Florida State League.

    Hits- 132 ranks (2) in the league
    2B- 32 ranks (2) in the league
    3B- 4 ranks (17) in the league
    HR- 22 ranks (3) in the league
    TB- 238 ranks (1) in the league
    Runs- 65 ranks (9) in the league
    SLG- .490 ranks (6) in the league

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    Juan Francisco has very bad plate discpline, we all know this. But look at his other stats in a tough Florida State League.

    Hits- 132 ranks (2) in the league
    2B- 32 ranks (2) in the league
    3B- 4 ranks (17) in the league
    HR- 22 ranks (3) in the league
    TB- 238 ranks (1) in the league
    Runs- 65 ranks (9) in the league
    SLG- .490 ranks (6) in the league
    what's so weird?

    he'll do well in Chattanooga. All bets are off after that, but I'm thinking that he'll have major league career that sparks many Redszone threads

  4. #3
    Member New Fever's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Memphis
    Posts
    763

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    what's so weird?

    he'll do well in Chattanooga. All bets are off after that, but I'm thinking that he'll have major league career that sparks many Redszone threads
    The reason I feel he has had a weird year is that he isn't receving much prospect buzz anywhere.

  5. #4
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,891

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    I think he gets a lack of 'buzz' because despite being a good hitter, his OBP is below .300. Thats a very big concern.

  6. #5
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    The reason I feel he has had a weird year is that he isn't receving much prospect buzz anywhere.
    it's because he's a hacker ... the current Reds lineup is a demonstration of how most major league pitchers can quite easily navigate a lineup chock full of 'em.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    12,796

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Francisco obviously is a talent. For both the last two seasons he accumulated homers, doubles, and also RBIs (reflecting some timely hitting). He also apparently has a great throwing arm.

    His season is all the more impressive because he is piling up these numbers in a pitcher's league and a pitcher's ballpark.

    As for his plate discipline and lack of walks, it is obviously a concern but he is just 21, a very young player. If he plays all next year at AA and the following year at AAA, I hope he will mature as a hitter and learn to be more selective. He has time to get there.

    Last year Francisco K'd 161 times in 534 at bats (one in every 3.3 at bats). This year, he's K'd 116 times in 486 at bats, a considerable improvement (one in every 4.2 at bats).

    If Francisco improves, I would hope he can become a Jose Guillen type hitter. A guy who doesn't walk that much but makes very good consistent contact with power. He's got a ways to go before he can be that good, but he certainly has the raw ability.

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,755

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Look at Juan Fransisco's numbers. Then look at Wily Mo Pena's. The are quite similar. Like Wily Mo, Fransisco's power will play anywhere. But unless he develops the ability to not chase so many pitches, he's going to be exposed as he moves up the chain.

    I'm thrilled to have a Wily Mo 2.0 in the system, but that horrific OBP is a fatal flaw and not something easily fixed.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-18-2008 at 04:52 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    12,796

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Look at Juan Fransisco's numbers. Then look at Wily Mo Pena's. The are quite similar. Like Wily Mo, Fransisco's power will play anywhere. But unless he develops the ability to not chase so many pitches, he's going to be exposed as he moves up the chain.

    I'm thrilled to have a Wily Mo 2.0 in the system, but that horrific OBP is a fatal flaw and not something easily fixed.
    But WMP signed a major league contract and was rushed to the major leagues. Then he played sporadically for the Reds who were forced to keep him in the majors. Not an ideal path to overcoming bad habits.

    On the other hand, the Reds are handling Francisco quite well. In 2007 and now this year the Reds resisted the temptation to promote Francisco and obviously are taking it slow with him. One level per year. And still, he is at an advanced league for his age.

    There have been many great major league hitters of the "free swinging" variety. If Francisco, who just 21, can get his OBP up to .320, and if he otherwise progresses, he can be an impact hitter in the major leagues.

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    4,484

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    But did Wily Mo ever rank high in a league in hits? In doubles? I think those are highly significant numbers in Francisco's favor. He appears to be a natural run producer. At the risk of offending the OBP gods, there are some advantages to a free swinger in the 5 hole.

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,755

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But WMP signed a major league contract and was rushed to the major leagues. Then he played sporadically for the Reds who were forced to keep him in the majors. Not an ideal path to overcoming bad habits.

    On the other hand, the Reds are handling Francisco quite well. In 2007 and now this year the Reds resisted the temptation to promote Francisco and obviously are taking it slow with him. One level per year. And still, he is at an advanced league for his age.

    There have been many great major league hitters of the "free swinging" variety. If Francisco, who just 21, can get his OBP up to .320, and if he otherwise progresses, he can be an impact hitter in the major leagues.
    I wasn't projecting Fransisco, just saying that at this point in his career he's a similar type of talent. By "fatal flaw", I didn't mean to write him off but to suggest he's dead in the water if he doesn't improve on it. You're right, Wily Mo never had the opportunity to develop in the minors and Fransisco will. I'm excited about the possibility of what he could become and merely pointing out his challenge. He won't be able to swing and miss so much and walk so little and keep his batting average at .280.

    FWIW, I think the best comp for him in the majors right now is Marcus Thames, who actually did take a walk in the minors. I'd be interested in seeing guys who put up low IsoD and high IsoP in the minors and how they progressed.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-18-2008 at 04:54 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Phoenix
    Posts
    6,490

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    What I love about Francisco is how young he is for the Florida League and how much raw power he has.

    And I'm not sure I agree with the Wily Mo comp RMR - Pena never had a breakout minor league season - he was a mediocre minor league hitter with a huge ceiling and an awful contract. And the revolving door of hitting coaches that never really let him figure out what he was doing didn't help either.

    I can't help but think (and dream) that Francisco has several parallels to Alfonso Soriano.
    Both Dominican, both strong armed but not praised for their Defense. Both about the same size, each with monster power - and Soriano took years to develop even bad OBP - up from awful his first couple of season. Soriano came to the US via the Japanese league so his development took place overseas but for some reason that comparison sticks.

  13. #12
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,265

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    I love Francisco's power and ability but he HAS to better his OBP or he's just not worth a great deal. I do agree however that he has plenty of time to improve thatarea of his game.

  14. #13
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,424

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Last year, I would've argued that Francisco's plate discipline is worse than Wily Mo Pena's, but this year, although it's still bad, I can honestly say I've seen an improvement. All he needs is development, and it looks like the Reds are willing to give that to him. Still, for some reason, I'm not very optimistic about Francisco.

    Here's my prediction for Francisco's career:

    2009
    It's another great year for Francisco. He shows even more power and makes great strides in his plate discipline. However, because he's so young and still has trouble waiting for pitches, it's decided that he will repeat AA as a member of the Lookouts to continue developing.

    2010
    In the offseason, Juan Francisco is taken in the rule five draft by a team managed by Jim Bowden, the Baltimore Orioles. Despite being heralded by Bowden as the next Alfonso Soriano (but with better tools and more raw power), Francisco struggles mightily, striking out 45 times in 110 at-bats with two homeruns. There were many struggles throughout the year, including an 0-for-28 drought between many rehab assignments to AAA, but Francisco manages to stay on the 25-man roster the entire year and sticks with Bowden's organization.

    2011
    Francisco starts the year hot by going 8-for-25 with three homeruns (and striking out only nine times). Unfortunately, Francisco soon after goes in a 0-for-31 slump. Because the Orioles are lacking a second baseman, Francisco is optioned in the middle of the season to high-A so he can be converted to second baseman. As a member of the Frederick Keys, the progress Francisco had made in his plate discipline with the Reds seems to disappear completely. Nonetheless, he tears the cover off the ball while in A+ as he puts up a .268/.284/.513 line. The confidence the fans had put in Francisco seems to be restored after Bowden pounds it in their heads that Francisco has more power than Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Alex Rodriguez, and Hank Aaron combined.

    2012
    Due to several failed drafts and a lack of quality players in Bowden's minor league organization, Francisco is promoted to AA, even though it is obvious that Francisco should continue to develop in the lower minor leagues. He continues to shows no progress whatsoever with the Bowie Baysox and sets a record for most errors from a second baseman in the Eastern League. In September, Francisco gets a cup of coffee with the Orioles because they are already out of the pennant race. Francisco goes 1-for-12 with eight strikeouts, but he has very exciting batting practice sessions and hits many long, foul balls that are very encouraging.

    2013
    Francisco is in his last option year. He somehow regresses even more. In AA, he puts up a .231/.233/.414 line, and it appears that his career is winding down. In the winter, he leaves as a minor league free agent following the trades Bowden had made (the entire bullpen with their long injury histories were traded for toolsy, minor league infielders and outfielders).

    2014
    Francisco is signed by a team general managed by Wayne Krivsky. Krivsky tries to take advantage of Francisco's strong throwing arm by converting him to pitcher. Francisco throws 28 innings of relief for the GCL Twins. His line: 7.71 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, 23 hits allowed, 39 BB, 33 K. Francisco is released.

    2015
    Juan Francisco returns home to the Dominican Republic and decides to take the year off and contemplate retiring. In the meantime, the Cincinnati Reds move to the Dominican Republic. Regarding the move, Bob Castellini says, "Following 16 years of losing, we've decided that we are ready to win and win now. If we don't win this year, I will retire. I mean it this time." The theory is that 92% of the team, the Dominican players, will be willing to sign smaller contracts to stay with the team since they are playing closer to home. This allows the Reds to keep such stars as Edinson "Cancer in the Clubhouse" Volquez, Johnny "Six Tommy John Surgeries" Cueto, and Juan "Am I Old Enough to Hit Puberty Yet?" Duran.

    2016
    After having a year to himself, Francisco decides that he's not ready to retire. The 28-year-old Juan Francisco participates in a tryout for the Dominican Reds and impresses. Walt Jocketty, who set new precedents by being the first corpse to general manage a Major League Baseball team, signs Francisco to a one-year, 13,000,000 euro contract. (The dollar stopped being used in 2012.)

    2017
    For the first time in his career, Francisco walks 30 times (17 times intentionally) as a member of the Dominican Reds and puts up a respectable .334 OBP. Although he ties the Reds' franchise record of 44 errors by a third baseman (set by Edwin Encarnacion in 2009), his .587 slugging percentage helps him win comeback player of the year, resulting in a lengthy, expensive contract extension.

    2018
    Pitcher learn that Francisco can't hit a pitch out, even if no one is on base, and he starts the year in a 1-for-71 slump. In May, the Reds fire Walt Jocketty's corpse, which is replaced by Bill Bavasi's corpse. Bill Bavasi's corpse designates Francisco for assignment, who isn't claimed on waivers and is paid 140,000,000 euro by the Dominican Reds to buy out his contract.

    2019-2022
    Juan Francisco develops an alcohol problem and gains 60 pounds. It looks like he may never step on a baseball field ever again.

    2023
    Jim Bowden takes over as GM of the Dominican Reds. In an effort to get the Reds to the closest thing to 'glory days' in recent memory, he signs Juan Francisco and the following players to minor league contracts: Ray Olmedo, Pokey Reese, Bret Boone, William Bergolla, Aaron Boone, Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Charlie Manning, Ryan Wagner, Dmitri Young, Ray King, D'Angelo Jiminez, Brandon Watson, Jerome Williams, Damian Jackson, Ramon Ortiz, Joey Eischen, Jeffrey Hammonds, Jose Guillen, Hector Carrasco, C.J. Nitkowski, and many more. History repeats itself, and the Reds continue to suck. Francisco leads the league in errors and strikeouts, but he goes to the All-Star game simply because one player from each team must go, and Francisco won a eenie-meenie-miney-mo tournmanet. All the above-mentioned players retire once again following the season, and the Reds, the first professional baseball team, fold. It's a sad day in history, but the Reds will always be warm in the hearts of the Dominican Republic, largely in thanks to the great Juan Francisco.

  15. #14
    Member Superdude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,733

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    That's quite a synopsis. I hope none of that happens, but I admire the effort.

  16. #15
    "So Fla Red"
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    South Florida - The Real Humidor
    Posts
    5,053

    Re: Juan Francisco's Weird Year

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    what's so weird?

    but I'm thinking that he'll have major league career that sparks many Redszone threads
    So did Juan Castro and Corey Patterson, but I'm thinking that's not what you meant


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25