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Thread: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

  1. #61
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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post

    Francisco's got power that you can't teach, and generally produces a solid stat line, I'm just not sure if his lack of walks will catch up with him. Still w/ everything else, I'd definently be looking at him as somebody that could be an answer to the Reds future puzzle.

    But at the same time, if he was the deal breaker to bring in a significant addition to the major league squad, I'd move him along, thinking one of the other 3 minor leaguers could make up for Francisco in due time.
    Francisco is so underrated by some posters that I feel compelled to post about him. Yes, I know he has a .303 OBP and that he doesn't walk much. As a 21 year old in High A ball, hopefully this will get better.

    But it is simply not true that he struggles to make contact. Quite the opposite. He has fanned 123 times in well over 500 at bats. That means he strikes out fewer than 1 time per 4 at bats. For a power hitter, that's a very acceptable ratio.

    And is he a power hitter. This year, Francisco has a .496 slugging percentage. He has 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers and 92 RBIs. For you batting average fans, he's hit .277. And he gets praise in the publications for his defensive ability. His range factor this year (calculated by games played) is 2.41, much better than the NL average of 2.27. (He's made 17 errors, still too many.) He has a cannon for an arm and great defensive potential.

    Even if you are an OBP fan, there would seem potentially to be room in a major league lineup for a promising defensive third sacker with 34 doubles, 23 homers, and 92 RBIs -- all accomplished at a fairly high level after he recently turned 21.

    And, of course, on top of all this, Francisco accomplished these numbers in the pitching dominated FSL.

    Third baseman of the future? Not sure but he's leading the competition if you ask me. If he's traded, the Reds will be playing against him as a major league starter some day.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-29-2008 at 01:07 AM.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    You can put me in the group that has underrated Francisco. I'm a lot more sold on him now than I was last year. There is no doubt that he has improved, even if there isn't a drastic difference in the numbers. He still has a long way to go when it comes to waiting for pitches, but his skills will certainly help him compensate these next few years.

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Francisco is so underrated by some posters that I feel compelled to post about him. Yes, I know he has a .303 OBP and that he doesn't walk much. As a 21 year old in High A ball, hopefully this will get better.

    But it is simply not true that he struggles to make contact. Quite the opposite. He has fanned 123 times in well over 500 at bats. That means he strikes out fewer than 1 time per 4 at bats. For a power hitter, that's a very acceptable ratio.

    And is he a power hitter. This year, Francisco has a .496 slugging percentage. He has 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers and 92 RBIs. For you batting average fans, he's hit .277. And he gets praise in the publications for his defensive ability. His range factor this year (calculated by games played) is 2.41, much better than the NL average of 2.27. (He's made 17 errors, still too many.) He has a cannon for an arm and great defensive potential.

    Even if you are an OBP fan, there would seem potentially to be room in a major league lineup for a promising defensive third sacker with 34 doubles, 23 homers, and 92 RBIs -- all accomplished at a fairly high level after he recently turned 21.

    And, of course, on top of all this, Francisco accomplished these numbers in the pitching dominated FSL.

    Third baseman of the future? Not sure but he's leading the competition if you ask me. If he's traded, the Reds will be playing against him as a major league starter some day.
    Just going off the bolded part, I would hope that everyone is an OBP fan...There is no way around saying that high OBP teams have the best offenses...

    As for Francisco there is no reason to overrate him or underrate him due to his potential, but areas of weakness...but he won't be a successful major league player with a .303 OBP...

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    As far as scoring runs goes, the only way to compensate for a low OBP is with a high SLG%, and Francisco has been doing that. The obstacle for him is that very, very few players with his skill set are able to translate it to success against more advanced pitching. If he wants to be anywhere near as good as he can be, he has to learn to take more pitches. But to his credit, even though he's not walking more, he's managed to go to the FSL and decrease his strikeouts while increasing his SLG.

  6. #65
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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Francisco is so underrated by some posters that I feel compelled to post about him. Yes, I know he has a .303 OBP and that he doesn't walk much. As a 21 year old in High A ball, hopefully this will get better.

    But it is simply not true that he struggles to make contact. Quite the opposite. He has fanned 123 times in well over 500 at bats. That means he strikes out fewer than 1 time per 4 at bats. For a power hitter, that's a very acceptable ratio.

    And is he a power hitter. This year, Francisco has a .496 slugging percentage. He has 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers and 92 RBIs. For you batting average fans, he's hit .277. And he gets praise in the publications for his defensive ability. His range factor this year (calculated by games played) is 2.41, much better than the NL average of 2.27. (He's made 17 errors, still too many.) He has a cannon for an arm and great defensive potential.

    Even if you are an OBP fan, there would seem potentially to be room in a major league lineup for a promising defensive third sacker with 34 doubles, 23 homers, and 92 RBIs -- all accomplished at a fairly high level after he recently turned 21.

    And, of course, on top of all this, Francisco accomplished these numbers in the pitching dominated FSL.

    Third baseman of the future? Not sure but he's leading the competition if you ask me. If he's traded, the Reds will be playing against him as a major league starter some day.

    The Reds are pretty crowded at 3B. Many of the team's best offensive prospects are probably 3B in the long run, with EdE, Keppinger and Rosales on the big league roster, and Frazier, Soto, Francisco, Waring and probably Valaika are 3B in the system and there isn't room for all these guys. Moving any to 1B probably isn't an option with Votto and Alonso already on board and the OF with Bruce, Dickerson, Stubbs, Dorn, Henry, Cumberland and Heisey is pretty crowded as well. Moving a couple of these guys in a deal in order to shore up thin areas in the organization has to be in the plan. IMO Frazier and Soto look like better all around bats than FRancisco and Valaika looks like a tweener. Waring probably has less value so Francisco and Valaika are guys I'd shop for a SS prospect who can actually play the spot in the big leagues and doesn't project as an automatic out. Finding a guy like that who is blocked at the big league level and likely available isn't obvious right now though.
    Last edited by mth123; 08-29-2008 at 06:01 AM.
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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by crazyredfan40 View Post
    As for Francisco there is no reason to overrate him or underrate him due to his potential, but areas of weakness...but he won't be a successful major league player with a .303 OBP...
    I don't know about that. He could probably be a decent bottom of the order bat with some pop as long as his defense at 3B is good. I see Pedro Feliz as a likely comp for Francisco. Not a star, but a starting caliber major league player who has some strengths and some weaknesses who can be useful if penciled in the line-up with your eyes open as to what he is. I'd even go so far to say his young cheap years are probably going to fairly valuable.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by crazyredfan40 View Post

    As for Francisco there is no reason to overrate him or underrate him due to his potential, but areas of weakness...but he won't be a successful major league player with a .303 OBP...
    This is where I deviate from the strict OBP crowd. Maybe some stathead can run more specific numbers, but here's how I see it. Put two guys in the No. 5 hole. Both of them bat .300 over 500 plate appearances. One has a .300 OBP, which means he never walks and has 150 hits. (I'm making extreme cases to demonstrate the point.) The other has a .400 OBP, which means he has 129 hits and 71 walks. Obviously, most people would overwhelmingly prefer the 400 OB guy. His advantage is 71 walks, which would drive in virtually NO runs but enable the 6-7-8 hitters to occasionally drive HIM in. Meanwhile, the 300 OB guy will score fewer runs (I'm assuming the same slugging percentage, which means, however, that he'll recoup some of the runs by homering or reaching scoring position) and deliver an extra 21 hits with which he WILL drive in some runs. I'm not sure where the advantage falls -- that would take some much more complicated math -- but the difference is nowhere near what many people presume it to be, and in fact the 300 OB guy may turn out to be every bit as productive in the 5-hole. There would be no comparison in, say, the 2-hole; but that's not what we're talking about. Batting fifth, the 300 OBP guy would drive in more runs than the 400 OBP guy. And isn't that what a No. 5 hitter is supposed to do? In short, I wouldn't write off a power hitter like Francisco merely because he has a poor OBP. There are, in fact, some advantages to that as long as he maintains a high batting average and slugging percentage.
    Last edited by mace; 08-29-2008 at 10:01 AM.

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Batting average, alone, says very little, but that doesn't mean it isn't useful. Many people make the mistake of saying that a single is equal to a walk, but obviously, a single is much more valuable if you have a runner on base. That's why I like to add batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage together when I compare players.

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    This is where I deviate from the strict OBP crowd. Maybe some stathead can run more specific numbers, but here's how I see it. Put two guys in the No. 5 hole. Both of them bat .300 over 500 plate appearances. One has a .300 OBP, which means he never walks and has 150 hits. (I'm making extreme cases to demonstrate the point.) The other has a .400 OBP, which means he has 129 hits and 71 walks. Obviously, most people would overwhelmingly prefer the 400 OB guy. His advantage is 71 walks, which would drive in virtually NO runs but enable the 6-7-8 hitters to occasionally drive HIM in. Meanwhile, the 300 OB guy will score fewer runs (I'm assuming the same slugging percentage, which means, however, that he'll recoup some of the runs by homering or reaching scoring position) and deliver an extra 21 hits with which he WILL drive in some runs. I'm not sure where the advantage falls -- that would take some much more complicated math -- but the difference is nowhere near what many people presume it to be, and in fact the 300 OB guy may turn out to be every bit as productive in the 5-hole. There would be no comparison in, say, the 2-hole; but that's not what we're talking about. Batting fifth, the 300 OBP guy would drive in more runs than the 400 OBP guy. And isn't that what a No. 5 hitter is supposed to do? In short, I wouldn't write off a power hitter like Francisco merely because he has a poor OBP. There are, in fact, some advantages to that as long as he maintains a high batting average and slugging percentage.
    It's a fair point and a good post. Just two things occur to me:

    1. How many runs they drive in depends on who bats ahead of them.

    2. The "empty" .300 hitter (.000 IsoD) makes 50 more outs than the .400 OBP dude.
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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post

    . The "empty" .300 hitter (.000 IsoD) makes 50 more outs than the .400 OBP dude.
    That assumes that .300 hitter never walks. Even if he walks 40 times per season, his OBA would be .352, which would decrease those 50 outs to 24 outs.

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    That assumes that .300 hitter never walks. Even if he walks 40 times per season, his OBA would be .352, which would decrease those 50 outs to 24 outs.
    That was the scenario mace put forth:

    One has a .300 OBP, which means he never walks and has 150 hits. (I'm making extreme cases to demonstrate the point.)
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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    It's a fair point and a good post. Just two things occur to me:

    1. How many runs they drive in depends on who bats ahead of them.

    2. The "empty" .300 hitter (.000 IsoD) makes 50 more outs than the .400 OBP dude.
    Yes, the .300 OBP guy makes 50 additional outs. I was thinking that's already accounted for in the extra opportunities he gives for the 6-7-8 batters, but you're right, it's a two-way advantage: One, the extra opportunity by saving the out, and two, the extra man on base. Good point.

    Also yes that the relative RBIs depend on who bats ahead of them. Similarly, the relative runs scored depend on who bats behind them. That's why I believe there are too many variables to arrive at a hard-and-fast conclusion. The point is made in the most general terms.

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Yes, the .300 OBP guy makes 50 additional outs. I was thinking that's already accounted for in the extra opportunities he gives for the 6-7-8 batters, but you're right, it's a two-way advantage: One, the extra opportunity by saving the out, and two, the extra man on base. Good point.

    Also yes that the relative RBIs depend on who bats ahead of them. Similarly, the relative runs scored depend on who bats behind them. That's why I believe there are too many variables to arrive at a hard-and-fast conclusion. The point is made in the most general terms.
    Yes. Just based on your scenario, I'd pick the higher OBP guy, simply because, and this is just my impression, plate discipline or IsoD doesn't slump as much as batting average. IOW, a guy with a higher IsoD will still get on base even while in the throes of an 0-fer.

    But all things considered, I'd love to have both and bat the .400 OBP in front of the .300 BA guy.
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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    The extra opportunity, however, is not all that it seems to be -- especially late in an inning with men on base. If you're talking about an RBI situation, it's really just a case of transferring the opportunity from the No. 5 hitter to the No. 6 or 7 guy. Ideally, that's a bad tradeoff. The 5 guy is the one you're trusting to drive in the run. In effect, the question is: Do you want those 50 opportunities to go to the 5 batter or the batters behind him? Again, if it's a leadoff situation this argument doesn't apply. That's why I specifically made it for the 5-hole hitter. The further you get from 5, the less merit it has.

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    Re: Wednesday August 27th minor league updates

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    The extra opportunity, however, is not all that it seems to be -- especially late in an inning with men on base. If you're talking about an RBI situation, it's really just a case of transferring the opportunity from the No. 5 hitter to the No. 6 or 7 guy. Ideally, that's a bad tradeoff. The 5 guy is the one you're trusting to drive in the run. In effect, the question is: Do you want those 50 opportunities to go to the 5 batter or the batters behind him? Again, if it's a leadoff situation this argument doesn't apply. That's why I specifically made it for the 5-hole hitter. The further you get from 5, the less merit it has.
    Personally, I want the 50 opportunities to go to someone. One guy will get a hit 3/10ths of the time and get out the rest. The other guy will get a hit 3/10ths of the time, walk 1/10th of the time and get out the rest. Yeah, I'd rather my guy come through but, as you said in your scenario, both guys are .300 hitters so they're have the same chance at hitting the ball. The advantage is with the high OBP guy, even if he fails to get a hit, there's a chance he'll extended the inning rather than shorten or end it.
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