2008 Hurricane Season

[HeatherC1212]

I have power at work but didn't have power at home when I left around 8 AM this morning and have no clue if it's back on or not yet. I hope that we get power back soon because three days of no power is driving us a little stir crazy. Thankfully we only have damage to our backyard fence and no damage to our condo. Those winds were something else on Sunday! There were trees completely uprooted in my condo complex and one of them landed on one of my neighbor's car. The city really did experience a taste of a hurricane only without the rain and flooding. I can't believe how many people are still without power in the city today but hopefully they get more folks up soon. Most of my coworkers are starting to get their power back so I hope we're next in line.

[klw]

OBM- I see you are a fan of Dr. Masters' blog as well.

[OnBaseMachine]

OBM- I see you are a fan of Dr. Masters' blog as well.

Yep. He's usually got some good info on there.

[HotCorner]

I got word that our power is back on! At a little under 48 hours without power, I've never appreciated electricity more.

[OnBaseMachine]

The destruction of Gilchrist
Many of you have probably seen the photo of Gilchrist, Texas showing complete destruction of the town of 750 people, save for one lone home. High-resolution satellite imagery made available by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (Figure 1) confirm that of the approximately 1000 structures existing in the town before Hurricane Ike, only about five survived the hurricane. Approximately 200 of these buildings were homes, and it is thought that some of the residents attempted to ride out the storm in their homes. According to media reports, about 34 survivors from Gilchrist and the neighboring communities of Crystal Beach and Port Bolivar have been fished out of Galveston Bay in the past few days. Rescuers who have reached Gilchrist have not been able to find any victims in the debris because there is no debris. Ike's storm surge knocked 99.5% of the 1,000 buildings in Gilchrist off their foundations and either demolished them or washed them miles inland into the swamplands behind Gilchrist. Until search teams can locate the debris of what was once was Gilchrist, we will not know the fate of those who may have stayed behind to ride out the storm.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed?
It's rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can't even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren't swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It's bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist's case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike's direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20' high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay's waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?
I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist's location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800's. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town's 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under fifteen feet of water in Matagorda Bay.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200809

[OnBaseMachine]

Caribbean disturbance 93L slowly organizing

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:20 AM EDT on September 20, 2008
Tropical disturbance 93L is slowly getting more organized. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has moved closer to the center and has increased in recent hours. However, there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation on satellite images or from last night's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate level, about 15 knots, and some additional slow organization of 93L appears likely today.

Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and four of the six reliable forecast models now predict that 93L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This development is forecast to happen near the southeastern Bahamas. The NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico tonight through Sunday. On Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The southeastern Bahamas can expect rains from 93L beginning on Monday night.

Possible development off the coast of Africa
A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity emerged from the coast yesterday. The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots. However, the system is too close to the Equator to develop very quickly.

Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about six days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200809

[OnBaseMachine]

Here's a picture of Lake Conroe, Texas, which is where Adam Dunn currently resides.

[deltachi8]

Still awaiting power here at our home. My son's school starts up Thursday, which is a good thing - i actually think he misses it.

[SandyD]

My sister's still out of power as well. Her kids started back to school today (pre-k) at esperanza. I hear they're using a generator.

[OnBaseMachine]

Tropical Storm Kyle has developed.

[OnBaseMachine]

Kyle has been upgraded to a Cat. 1 Hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph. Right now it looks like it will make landfall around the Maine/Nova Scotia border sometime Monday.

[deltachi8]

Just to close the book for my home and Ike, our power was restored today around noon. 14 days and 11 hours after it went out. After seeing what damage the storm did in parts of this area, much less Galveston and the barrier island areas, how anyone could complain we consider ourselves to be very lucky to only have lost power.

[SandyD]

my sister still does not have power yet. She is on a circuit of 7 houses, so she thinks they will be one of the last to get restored. (She's near Ella and Pinemont, and she thinks there are lines down behind her house, that haven't been reconnected yet.)

Congrats on getting power back, delta

[SandyD]

My sister in Houston got her power back ... hooray!