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Thread: 2008 Hurricane Season

  1. #136
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas

    There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

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  3. #137
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    This one looks like its headed dead-center on the Texas Coast. Our friends in the lone star state should stay safe, but if I can add something...don't overreact. We've had our share over the past few years in Florida and these things aren't as bad as they look on TV.

    I still remember the evacuation of Houston with Hurricane Rita. More suffering and death in the evacuation than from the hurrican itself.

    Book yourselves a hotel someplace far enough (200 miles) and cancel it if you don't need it. Don't run unless you are in a dangerous situation (barrier island or flood area, etc.).
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  4. #138
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    If Ike makes landfall as a Category 3 or higher, we could get 100 MPH winds in San Antonio on Saturday. Most of the high schools here are moving Saturday football games to Thursday. In some cases, they're moving Friday games to Thursday.

    I have a meeting about 50 miles north on I-35 late Friday afternoon, so I'll probably have a fun drive there and back between the rain, the evacuee traffic and the usual Friday afternoon commuters. I dropped hints to the person who scheduled it that I would be completely open to postponing if circumstances on his end warranted it. We'll see if he takes me up on it.
    /r/reds

  5. #139
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Track forecast for Ike
    Ike is moving west-northwest under the influence of a blocking ridge of high pressure to its north. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike more to the northwest. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and remain closed most of Saturday.

    The latest 00Z/06Z (8pm/2am EDT)) computer models have begun to zero in on Corpus Christi to Freeport as the most likely landfall location. However, with a trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike close to landfall time, a slight variation in timing of this trough could put Ike ashore farther north, near Galveston. There is also a chance the ridge pushing Ike west Thursday could be stronger than expected, forcing Ike more to the west towards a Brownsville landfall. However, I believe that this is lower probability, and that Galveston is more likely to get hit than Brownsville. The cone of uncertainty still covers the entire Texas coast. If Ike hits Corpus Christi, it will miss most of the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 2), but a hit closer to Galveston would seriously disrupt the oil and gas industry.

    I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At 11 am EDT, NHC called for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:

    Brownsville: 9%
    Corpus Christi: 17%
    Port O'Connor: 24%
    Freeport: 23%
    Galveston: 20%
    Houston: 13%

    As you can see, Port O'Connor is considered the most likely city in Texas to receive hurricane force winds. I believe the percentages for the cities above except Brownsville are too low, and should be bumped up by 5-10%.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

  6. #140
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Ike has strengthened back to a Cat. 2 with 100 mph winds.

  7. #141
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    A large spiral band surrounding Ike's inner eye is attempting to close off and form a new outer eyewall with a diameter of 100 miles. The power struggle between the small inner eyewall and the large outer spiral band will likely go on until Thursday, resulting in little intensification of Ike this evening. By Thursday, the power struggle will likely be over, and Ike will probably resume intensification. If the small eyewall wins, Ike could intensify rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane; if the large spiral band takes over as the new eyewall and the inner eyewall crumbles, we can expect more gradual intensification to a Category 3 hurricane.

    Ike continues to grow in size, and its tropical storm force winds extend out almost as far as Katrina's did. This large wind field is already starting to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are already running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Visible satellite loops show that Ike has good upper-level outflow channels open to the north and the south. Outflow and cloud cover are restricted on the storm's west side, where dry air and wind shear of 10-15 knots are affecting the storm. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a major hurricane that will bring widespread destruction to a large stretch of the Texas coast. I expect Ike will generate a 10-15 foot storm surge along a 100-mile stretch of Texas coast from the eye landfall location, northwards. I urge Texas residents to take this storm very seriously and heed any evacuation orders given. Most of you living along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane, and Ike is capable of causing high loss of life in storm surge-prone areas. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and will probably remain closed most of Saturday. Ike has a good chance of becoming the most destructive hurricane in Texas history--though not the most powerful.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

  8. #142
    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Well, things here have become a bit more interesting....still take it over a blizzard though.
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

  9. #143
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Ike intensifying explosively

    Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:25 AM GMT on September 11, 2008

    Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.

    Ike is almost as large as Katrina was, and this large wind field is already beginning to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Tides have risen one foot above normal in Galveston too. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 10-12 feet at Galveston, and 18-21 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

    Ike is likely to be a extremely dangerous major hurricane at landfall, and will likely do $10-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders. It is possible that Ike will make a direct hit on Galveston as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The potential storm surge from such a hit could be in the 15-25 foot range (Figure 2), which is capable of overwhelming the 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. I put the odds of such an event at about 5%.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

  10. #144
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Quote Originally Posted by deltachi8 View Post
    Well, things here have become a bit more interesting....still take it over a blizzard though.
    You planning on evacuating?

  11. #145
    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    You planning on evacuating?
    Not at his time. We are far enough inland and outside of the flood plain so we should be OK. We started prepping a bit tonight for riding it out and will watch things closely tomorrow to see if we need to head north or west. The Governor is suppose to announce some plans tomorrow at 11:30 CST.
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

  12. #146
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Stay safe. We'll be thinking about ya.



  13. #147
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Category 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina

    Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2008
    Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

    Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

  14. #148
    First Time Caller SunDeck's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Quote Originally Posted by deltachi8 View Post
    Well, things here have become a bit more interesting....still take it over a blizzard though.
    Have you been through a hurricane? No blizzard ever made me feel as small and insignificant as a hurricane has.
    Next Reds manager, second shooter. --Confirmed on Redszone.

  15. #149
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.
    For comparison, the Category 4 Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (which killed somewhere around 6-12K people) had storm surge of 15 ft.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  16. #150
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    The northward turn of the projected track today is a plus for weather in my part of the state, but it really puts the population center of Houston and the perilous Galveston Island area at risk.

    The Weather Channel has a live crew in my family's favorite vacation spot, Port Lavaca. Considering how small and untouristy PL is, it's bizarre to see it featured so prominently.
    /r/reds


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