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Thread: 2008 Hurricane Season

  1. #121
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    New projected path has Ike heading straight towards the New Orleans area as a powerful Cat. 4 hurricane. There is still plenty of time for it to shift, though...


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  3. #122
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    New projected path has Ike heading straight towards the New Orleans area as a powerful Cat. 4 hurricane. There is still plenty of time for it to shift, though...
    Good news for us Florida Residents is that ALL models show the hurricane passing to the south, mostly over Cuba. Now it's a matter of how much it penetrates into the Gulf before turning north.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  4. #123
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Ike is back up to a Cat. 4 Hurricane with 135 mph winds.

  5. #124
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    The new update has it hitting Cuba and dropping to a Cat. 1 before moving into the Gulf and restrengthening to Cat. 3 and moving in a similar path to Gustav.

    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 09-06-2008 at 05:14 PM.

  6. #125
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Hurricane Ike threatens Cuba and Gulf

    HAVANA (Reuters) - Hurricane Ike charged toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico as a ferocious Category 4 storm on Saturday, while Tropical Storm Hanna drenched the U.S. Atlantic coast after barrelling ashore in the Carolinas.

    Ike's top sustained winds reached 135 miles per hour (215 kph), making it an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 on the five-step Saffir Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

    Ike alternately weakened and strengthened but was likely to remain a "major" hurricane of at least Category 3 as it slammed into Cuba, the forecasters said.

    The densely populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale area in south Florida seemed an increasingly less likely target but visitors were ordered to flee the vulnerable Florida Keys island chain on Saturday.

    Computer models indicated Ike would sweep into Cuba late on Sunday, severely threatening sugar cane fields, the tourist hotels of Varadero and the crumbling colonial buildings of Havana.

    The storm was forecast to curve into the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of this week's Hurricane Gustav, plowing toward an area that produces a quarter of domestic U.S. oil, and slamming ashore near New Orleans, which was swamped and traumatized by Hurricane Katrina three years ago.

    Katrina was a Category 3 when it struck near New Orleans on August 29, 2005, swamping the city and killing 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

    The deeper Ike goes into Cuba, the weaker it will be once it re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, the hurricane center said. It added, however, "Some restrengthening is forecast once Ike departs Cuba."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews...BrandChannel=0

  7. #126
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Storm continues to jog to left and is now aiming towards Texas.

  8. #127
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Here's another site for tropical storms...

    http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/
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  9. #128
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    BTW, the "British" model my mom was talking about is the UKMET model (as in UK - Meteorological - Duh...). It seems to be tracking out further west.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  10. #129
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    BTW, the "British" model my mom was talking about is the UKMET model (as in UK - Meteorological - Duh...). It seems to be tracking out further west.
    Farther west, as in direct hit on Corpus Christi - at least according to the composite track map on the site Kitty posted. That track is probably the worst case scenario for those of us who live 120 miles inland from Corpus Christi.
    /r/reds

  11. #130
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Once Ike emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a trough of low pressure passing to the north may be able to induce a more north-northwesterly to Ike, and pull it towards the Florida Panhandle, bringing tropical storm force winds to Tampa on Wednesday. The HWRF is the only model showing this, and the rest of the models push Ike more to the west, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The eventual landfall locations predicted by the models range from Alabama to the Mexican border. It is too early to have a feel for where Ike will go at this point, since landfall is probably 6-7 days form now.

    Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed to 29.5C underneath Ike and will warm to 30.0C over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear has dropped below 10 knots and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days. As long as Ike is not over Cuba, it has very favorable conditions for intensification. Once Ike passes Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, the intensification potential remains high, as shear is predicted to be below 15 knots, and the waters are hot.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 09-07-2008 at 02:50 PM.

  12. #131
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Heading to Key West mid month. Following this thread and other sites closely. Looks like Cuba will suck most of the energy from Ike while it's in proximity to the Keys. Will be a nervous couple weeks for me.
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  13. #132
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Powerful Hurricane Ike heads for Cuba, Gulf
    09.07.08, 2:49 PM ET

    By Marc Frank

    HAVANA (Reuters) - Ferocious Hurricane Ike ripped off roofs in the southern Bahamas on Sunday and Cuba scrambled to move hundreds of thousands of people inland, away from a storm eventually headed toward the U.S. Gulf oilpatch and possibly New Orleans.

    A dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds and a possible 18-foot storm surge, Ike bore down on Cuba's northeast coast after raging through Britain's Turks and Caicos, an overseas territory of about 22,000 people, and Great Inagua, the Bahamas' southernmost island.

    "This one is quite severe," said Inagua resident Shanie Roker. "There is a lot of wind and rain. Roofs in Matthew Town are being damaged and trees are coming down."

    Residents of the Florida Keys, a 110-mile island chain connected by bridges with only one road out, were told to evacuate as a precaution.

    Ike could follow a path similar to that of Hurricane Gustav through the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana and Texas, possibly threatening New Orleans, the city swamped by Katrina three years ago, and the Gulf energy rigs, which account for a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of natural gas output.

    MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND

    Many of Cuba's 11 million people could be affected by Ike, which was expected to move ashore north of Guantanamo Bay -- home to the U.S. Navy base housing the controversial prison camp for terrorism suspects -- and spend nearly two days over the long, narrow island.

    Authorities used buses, trucks and other transportation to move thousands of tourists inland from Cuba's prime resorts along the northern coast from Guardalavaca in eastern Holguin to Varadero. Ranchers herded cattle in the prime grazing areas of eastern Las Tunas and Camaguey to higher ground.

    "We are at a disadvantage because there are no hills and mountains to break the wind," farm worker Artemio Madonadoemos said from the flatlands of Las Tunas. "If the storm comes through here the damage will be enormous."

    Ike was set to come ashore in Holguin, home of the nickel industry, Cuba's most important export, then move westward over the heart of the sugar industry. Holguin's mines and three processing plants in the mountains were shut down.

    The hurricane rained new misery on Haiti, where flooding triggered by Tropical Storm Hanna was believed to have killed at least 500 people around the port city of Gonaives.

    "I believe the death toll is much higher," Gonaives chief Mayor Stephen Moise said, adding it had started raining again, floodwaters were rising and bridges linking the city to the rest of the country had collapsed.

    "Gonaives is really a devastated and isolated city," he said. "We cannot bear another hurricane."

    By 2 p.m. EDT, the center of Ike was just west of Great Inagua Island, where a satellite dish on the roof of a phone company building collapsed and high winds blew the shutters off the police station.

    'TOO CLOSE'

    A steady stream of traffic moved along the Overseas Highway in the Florida Keys as some residents evacuated even though Ike was expected to pass at least 100 miles to the south.

    "It's just too close to not react to it," Monroe County administrator Roman Gastesi said.

    A homeless shelter shut down and bused its residents to Miami, and business owner Bill Murphy evacuated the staff of his adult-themed shop, and his entire collection of Halloween costumes for Key West's annual Fantasy Fest event, to Orlando.

    "I've got everyone on my staff ... living with my Orlando employees," he said. "I have a big investment in the costumes because of Fantasy Fest so they were important to save too."

    Ike was forecast to curve into the Gulf in the wake of Gustav, which went ashore just west of New Orleans last week, sparing the city traumatized by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

    Katrina killed 1,500 people and caused about $80 billion damage on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

    Ike's most likely track had it headed for the Texas-Louisiana border. But long-range forecasts have a large margin of error and a slight deviation could take it toward New Orleans.

    Forecasters expected Ike to weaken to a Category 1 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale over Cuba but to regain Category 3 strength as it nears the U.S. Gulf coast.

    Oil companies had begun returning workers to the offshore platforms that were evacuated before Gustav hit. But one company, Shell Oil Co., said Saturday it had stopped returning workers in case new evacuations were needed. (Additional reporting by Michael Haskins in Key West and John Marquis in Nassau, writing by Jim Loney; editing by David Wiessler)

    http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/...-4-PIX-TV.html

  14. #133
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    As Ike moves approaches within 300 miles of the Louisiana coast on Friday, there will be another trough of low pressure capable of turning the storm to the north. The GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Ike northwards into central or western Louisiana. The UKMET and ECMWF models disagree, and think high pressure will dominate enough to force Ike westwards into Texas, between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana border. These two models have been trending too far south with Ike so far, so I would lean towards a landfall in western Louisiana at this point.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

  15. #134
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Looks like he's revised his thinking westward.

    All five major models--the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF--foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. The GFDL model foresees landfall as a Category 2, and the HWRF as a Category 3. Landfall could be as early as Friday afternoon, or as late as Saturday morning.
    The State of Texas emergency management folks have asked every county in the state to get into the highest state of readiness for Ike's landfall. Considering that there are over 200 counties here, that's a big deal.
    /r/reds

  16. #135
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    Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

    Hurricane Ike has completed its final traverse of Cuba, and is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday. Key West radar shows that the inner eyewall of Ike has collapsed, but satellite loops show that Ike has maintained a large, well-organized circulation during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm EDT center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 968 mb, which is characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane. Passage over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to keep Ike from intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

    The capital of Havana missed the worst of Ike, and reported highest sustained winds of just 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 8 am this morning. Ike killed four people in Cuba yesterday--the first hurricane deaths in Cuba this year. Cuba put in place its usual massive evacuation plan for Ike, evacuating 1.2 million residents. Considering the number of people affected and the violence of Category 4 Gustav and Category 3 Ike, Cuba's low death toll this year is a remarkable achievement.

    Track forecast for Ike
    A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.

    The latest 12Z (8am EDT) computer models have come into much better agreement. All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas. Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.

    Intensity forecast for Ike
    Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large a well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening will not occur until early Wednesday morning, since the storm has to build a new eyewall. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots. Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy (Figure 3). The GFDL and HWRF models show Ike responding to these favorable conditions by intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday. The wind shear for Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind shear to remain around 15 knots, which is still low enough to allow intensification. There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is less likely that Ike will significantly weaken as it approaches the coast. The GFDL and HWRF models predict landfall in southern Texas as a Category 4 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. Given the impressive appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at landfall, I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:

    Category 1 or weaker: 20%
    Category 2: 30%
    Category 3: 30%
    Category 4 or 5: 20%

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


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