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Thread: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    We can disagree about the rankings, but one thing I think is clear is that the Reds have some depth and in the current situation that is a good thing. In order to turn things around the Reds are going to have to bring in some things that they need. Specifically a catcher, a young athletic SS who can hit a little and maybe another starter. To do that, the team is going to need to deal off a few of their young players. My thinking is that you identify a few you want to hang on to, deal others with trade value and backfill the guys that were traded with some of the sleepers coming up behind them.

    Of course everyone is available in the right deal, but the likely scenario for getting what is needed without overpaying is what we're trying to identify. IMO, the keepers on offense are Frazier, Soto and Alonso. But beyond them who to deal?


    1. Juan Francisco - Francisco plays the most crowded spot in the organization. The team has a young starter in EdE who may or may not be a long term answer there. At least one (Soto) if not two (Frazier) of the top guys will likley end-up there and the team has a similar but probably less in demand player in Brandon Waring coming up behind Francisco. Francisco's age and HR bat IMO have him a more valuable trade commodity than Waring and even Soto may still be undervalued by many teams. Francisco seems to be a guy the Reds could deal for other needs and not suffer much with the alternatives still on board, while avoiding the risk of his potentially fatal free swinging flaw.

    2. Chris Valaika - This is a guy who has made a bit of a name for himself with his bat. For him to be successful in the big leagues though, that bat will have to be stationed at 2B. I don't believe its a certainty that he can play there. Add that the team has arguably its best player at the spot and guys like Keppinger, Rosales and even Turner, who may be able to do what Valaika can do, and he seems expendable.

    3. Drew Stubbs - The OF is pretty crowded. Dickerson looks like a guy that could at least platoon in CF and with the Reds probably stuck with Freel as his platoon mate, it leaves CF a little crowded in 2009. Stubbs was a high draft pick who has the defensive chops to play the spot and has really come on in the second half of 2008. IMO he probably has a lot of trade value. I certainly wouldn't give him away, but if he could be swapped for a similar prospect at SS or C, I'd do it. Guys like Cumberland, Henry and Heisey may be able to fill the same role as Stubbs without too much of a drop off by 2010(especially Heisey in CF) but surely don't carry the trade value that Stubbs probably does. Stubbs for Taylor Teagarden? Sign me up for that one.

    The pitching side is a little less clear IMO. Thompson looked like a comer early in the year, but his injury clouds the situation. Lotzkar was probably the best of the younger guys, but he too has an injury concern. Matt Maloney created some buzz last year but has had a poor season. Homer Bailey no longer qualifies as a "prospect" and he has probably had a drop in value, but IMO he's still the best bet in the minors to be a plus starter some day. Travis Wood was once highly thought of, but a couple injured and ineffective years likely have his value down. Sam Lecure, Ben Jukich and Ramon Ramirez have been effective but I'd guess have little trade value. With the Major League rotation likley set with Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto and the not yet official Micah Owings, the team needs guys who can be depth at AAA and effective replacements down the road. IMO the team should cautiously shop Bailey and Maloney (I still think Bailey will be a stud eventually). They probably have the most value of the minor league guys. Bailey because of his former status and Maloney as a high K lefty. The next guys in line who will be AAA depth are likely to be Thompson, Ramirez, Lecure, and Jukich. Wood, Dallas Buck, Jordan Smith, and Alex Smit will be in the pipeline at AA.

    So the primary shop list: Francisco, Valaika, Stubbs, Bailey and Maloney. Throw in any of a number of pen arms (Fisher, Watson, Manual, Lutz, Tabor, etc.) and lesser but possibly intriguing position players (Eyman, Parker, Reed. K. Jones, Phipps, Gutierrez, etc.) and the team should be able to acquire some help in areas of need.
    Last edited by mth123; 08-31-2008 at 07:43 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Stubbs for Taylor Teagarden?
    Texas has a couple of CF prospects already -- Julio Borbon and Engel Beltre. It's fun to think about prospect for prospect deals -- and it would be nice if teams made those kind of trades more often -- but the dealing from depth that the Reds may do will most likely be for a "proven veteran," like Bengie Molina. One possible complication to finding a trade partner is that the Reds don't much starting pitching in the system.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Texas has a couple of CF prospects already -- Julio Borbon and Engel Beltre. It's fun to think about prospect for prospect deals -- and it would be nice if teams made those kind of trades more often -- but the dealing from depth that the Reds may do will most likely be for a "proven veteran," like Bengie Molina. One possible complication to finding a trade partner is that the Reds don't much starting pitching in the system.
    Agree, Just a for instance. I haven't looked real closely for match-ups. Just trying to make the point that trading a guy like Stubbs shouldn't be out of the question. The team has depth and Stubbs has value.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    3. Drew Stubbs - The OF is pretty crowded. Dickerson looks like a guy that could at least platoon in CF and with the Reds probably stuck with Freel as his platoon mate, it leaves CF a little crowded in 2009.
    Freel doesn't show a big enough split (.708 vs. 738 OPS 3-year) to make a good platoon player.

    I want Stubbs to be Dickerson's platoon partner. None of our other outfield prospects provide the same defense.


    All in all, if they're going to trade some of these B/C prospects to avoid a log-jam, I'd rather them go for lower-level prospects than try to package them for a big-league player. I just don't think they have that much value. I really don't want to trade any of them right now, to be honest.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 08-31-2008 at 10:00 AM.

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    How about Dickerson as the trade piece with his highest value now. Stubbs has the potential to be the best player in the league at his position.

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Drew Stubbs - The OF is pretty crowded. Dickerson looks like a guy that could at least platoon in CF and with the Reds probably stuck with Freel as his platoon mate, it leaves CF a little crowded in 2009. Stubbs was a high draft pick who has the defensive chops to play the spot and has really come on in the second half of 2008. IMO he probably has a lot of trade value. I certainly wouldn't give him away, but if he could be swapped for a similar prospect at SS or C, I'd do it. Guys like Cumberland, Henry and Heisey may be able to fill the same role as Stubbs without too much of a drop off by 2010(especially Heisey in CF) but surely don't carry the trade value that Stubbs probably does. Stubbs for Taylor Teagarden? Sign me up for that one.
    I'm not going to debate the merits of the trade, but we have zero depth in the OF.

    Going into 2009, we have, arguably, zero sure things at the majors level.

    Now, Bruce will play RF, but he hasn't exactly burned it up this season. Now, I'm not saying he won't, just that he hasn't.

    Our #2 OF going into 2009 is Dickerson. That's the same guy that most around here felt as little as 2-3 months ago would never cut it in the majors.

    Our #3 OF going into 2009 is currently not in the Reds system.

    The Reds OF is so crowded that no one plays there anymore.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    There is no untouchable in the system right now. Zero. It would be tough to give up Soto and Stubbs (just because he fits a pressing need and is in AAA currently with success), but given the right return there is certainly no one who is untouchable like we had last offseason.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'm not going to debate the merits of the trade, but we have zero depth in the OF.

    Going into 2009, we have, arguably, zero sure things at the majors level.

    Now, Bruce will play RF, but he hasn't exactly burned it up this season. Now, I'm not saying he won't, just that he hasn't.

    Our #2 OF going into 2009 is Dickerson. That's the same guy that most around here felt as little as 2-3 months ago would never cut it in the majors.

    Our #3 OF going into 2009 is currently not in the Reds system.

    The Reds OF is so crowded that no one plays there anymore.
    Firstly, I'm posting in the minor league forum and referring to organizational depth. Secondly, I think the OF is going to be Bruce, Dickerson, and one of either EdE or Votto. Freel will be there and probably Hopper. Bruce, Dorn, Henry and Cumberland and maybe even Heisey may all be ready by the end of 2009. Some will wash out but there is enough similar depth that dealing a few is an idea that the team should pursue. Out of that group Bruce is untouchable and Stubbs is probably the only other one that has decent trade value unless Votto or EdE is dealt.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Secondly, I think the OF is going to be Bruce, Dickerson, and one of either EdE or Votto.
    I doubt that EE or Votto will move to the OF for the simple reason it weakens two spots. There is currently no one in house projected to play in 2009 to take either of those postions.

    It's way easier to find a LF on the FA market than a thirdbaseman or even a firstbaseman.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I doubt that EE or Votto will move to the OF for the simple reason it weakens two spots. There is currently no one in house projected to play in 2009 to take either of those postions.

    It's way easier to find a LF on the FA market than a thirdbaseman or even a firstbaseman.
    Maybe, but I doubt that the Reds are going to sign a long term deal for a big name at 1B or LF. With Yonder and Frazier on the way I find it hard to believe that somebody won't be moved to make room. Since Walt proclaimed that both EdE and Votto were untouchable, I have to think that one will be moved to LF to make room. I also think that Yonder is probably in the long term plan since Jocketty drafted and signed him. That would probably mean Votto to the OF.

    As for the weaken's at two spots stuff, Votto is to 1B play what David Ross was to catching. He does some things well but the thing he absolutely has to do, he doesn't do so well. Votto is not very good around the bag and in taking throws from the other IF. I think he costs the team a lot of baserunners because of it. His strengths actually are more useful in the OF than at 1B and his weakness at 1B is much more detrimental than it would be in LF. He's young, fairly athletic and more mobile than people may realize. If he can learn to read a fly ball off the bat, he can be pretty decent in LF where the defensive bar is pretty low anyway. Signing a stopgap 1B who can contribute a little on offense until Yonder is ready shouldn't be hard. The team could go with some one like Doug Mientkiewicz or Kevin Millar (or both) for a year. It may address the whole "veteran presence" issue that seems important to this organization as well and those type guys could still fit on the bench after Yonder arrives. Votto in LF and a stopgap at 1B would actually improve the team at 2 spots IMO. Of course that is all based on my thinking that Votto really hurts the team defensively at 1B. I'd agree that an EdE move looks less likely and probably would hurt the team until one of the kids comes along to take over at 3B.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    I think Stubbs can really help the team at CF. In my opinion, keep both Dickerson and Stubbs - their fielding and athletic skills could serve them as a 4th OFer.
    I think Valaika and Frazier would be good off-season trade chips.
    I don't like trading younger talent (Soto, Lotzkar and Francisco) until their ceiling and liklihood of reaching it are more established. Of course, that usually means that they lose value, but you have to see if what you hoped you saw talentwise will emerge.
    I would trade anyone in the farm system for a legitimate C or SS.
    The Reds really need a real C and a SS.

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    I think Stubbs can really help the team at CF. In my opinion, keep both Dickerson and Stubbs - their fielding and athletic skills could serve them as a 4th OFer.
    I think Valaika and Frazier would be good off-season trade chips.
    I don't like trading younger talent (Soto, Lotzkar and Francisco) until their ceiling and liklihood of reaching it are more established. Of course, that usually means that they lose value, but you have to see if what you hoped you saw talentwise will emerge.
    I would trade anyone in the farm system for a legitimate C or SS.
    The Reds really need a real C and a SS.
    I'm gonna keep spreading the word until it happens, but the Reds SS of the future is currently with the Dodgers:
    http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=474443

    Son of former major leaguer Ivan De Jesus, the junior De Jesus displays plus defense at shortstop; Baseball America has said that he has the organizationís best infield arm. Around two years younger than his peers, De Jesus has shown excellent plate discipline and judgment of the strike zone as evidenced by his high BB% and low K%. He also has shown the ability to hit for a moderately high average.
    The negative for De Jesus is that he has displayed minimal power thus far (though he did show increased power last year). Although he has a small build, his swing has the potential for more power than his current numbers indicate; however, he needs more loft and a bigger load to reach that potential. Of course, the big positive is that De Jesus doesnít have to have much of a bat to make a major impact because his glove is so good.

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    Member Marty and Joe's Avatar
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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    How about Dickerson as the trade piece with his highest value now. Stubbs has the potential to be the best player in the league at his position.
    As much as it might cause others to not be happy, I agree with your thought about Dickerson. Dickerson's history and minor league numbers lend me to think he's a long-term 4th OF with good defense. There is still value in that (and, I like the idea of a Dickerson/Stubbs platoon), however, I think Dickerson's trade value may not get higher than it might be at the moment.

    I've got absolutely no problem with keeping him, but, if someone were to offer something based on his perceived value today, I'd most definitely consider it.

    Every player should always be available if someone is willing to overpay.

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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Marty and Joe View Post
    As much as it might cause others to not be happy, I agree with your thought about Dickerson. Dickerson's history and minor league numbers lend me to think he's a long-term 4th OF with good defense. There is still value in that (and, I like the idea of a Dickerson/Stubbs platoon), however, I think Dickerson's trade value may not get higher than it might be at the moment.

    I've got absolutely no problem with keeping him, but, if someone were to offer something based on his perceived value today, I'd most definitely consider it.

    Every player should always be available if someone is willing to overpay.
    Except in a great deal for the Reds, I wouldn't trade the following guys:

    Stubbs
    Dickerson
    Cozart
    Francisco
    Brandon Phillips
    Tatum
    Janish
    Alonso

    Each of these guys is reputedly an excellent defender or has great defensive potential. I would keep them. I would also keep Soto and the other very young guys who look like good prospects.

    I agree with the poster who said that Frazier and Valaika are potential trade chips. I just don't know where they fit in defensively.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Who to Keep? Who to Deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    How about Dickerson as the trade piece with his highest value now. Stubbs has the potential to be the best player in the league at his position.
    In theory that's an ok idea. I guess where we disagree is on:

    1. Stubbs potential.
    2. Dickerson's trade value.

    I'm convinced now that Stubbs will be a productive major league CF with a good glove. I'm not convinced that he'll be "the best player in the league at his position." I actually think that a platoon of Dickerson and maybe Freel for now and Chris Heisey down the road can be just as productive on offense and defense. But, given Stubbs draft status, I think he would bring back much more in trade than a Dickerson or a Heisey or both together would.

    I'd choose the cost efficient and productive platoon along with a high caliber player that Stubbs could fetch at another position of need over keeping Stubbs and eventually taking scraps for the other guys who lose their value due to lack of playing time while Stubbs plays CF.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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