Originally Posted by
RED VAN HOT
Excellent post, kpresidente and 757690. I too am optimistic about 2009, but then I usually am. I tend to think that the improvement, however, will not be strictly due to luck evening out. There is reason to believe that pitching and defense will continue to improve. I think the team next year will require a different approach to generating runs. They cannot rely as much on power. The sample size is small, but it seems to me that we are already seeing a difference in hitting approach. More frequently, hitters are going the other way and laying off pitcher's pitches. If we are going to win the 3-2 games, we will need to manufacture runs as other good teams do.
I tend to think that the Reds have not simply been unlucky. If variation in BABIP were due to chance alone, then we should be able to compute the probability that Reds' BABIP is that far from the ML mean. If the probability of that deviation from the mean is extremely small, then we would be inclined to reject chance and look for other factors to explain the Reds' variation. BABIP is obviously affected by the differences in pitching and defense a hitter experiences. The assumption, however, is that over the course of a season, these variations tend to cancel each other. Hitters tend to hit against the same mix of good and bad pitching/defense. When, however, the variation in BABIP is extreme, it suggests that other variables may be systematically affecting that sample.
I have not done the statistical work. Let's assume for a moment, however, that we are inclined to look for other explanations besides chance that contribute to the Reds' low number. One possibility is that the Reds have collected a group of individuals with consistently low BABIP, players who do not hit the ball hard (757690's post). The players he lists do, however, hit the ball hard and their 2008's are well below their career averages. Thus, I would tend to reject as an explanation, the notion that the Reds assembled a team of unusually weak hitters. We are left, then, with the same problem. Was it chance that all these players, independently, were significantly below their career averages this year? Are there other explanations?
One possible explanation is that hitters are attempting to pull balls that are outside in the strike zone. Their BB/K ratio might stay the same since judgment of the strike zone would not have changed. Perhaps it is what hitters are doing with pitches on the outside part of the strike zone that has changed. Pitches in the outside part of the strike zone would more likely be hit weakly if hitters were attempting to pull them. Admittedly, this is speculation on my part. I have no idea what Reds hitters are being taught. Further, it may be a reasonable strategy for a team of power hitters.