camisadelgolf Tries to Fill Out the Minor League Rosters for 2009

[mth123]

You mention that not being on the 40-man roster shouldn't be a problem, but I'm not quite convinced of that. First, there's the 25-man roster. Let's say the Reds sign only one free agent.

(25)
C Ryan Hanigan
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Edwin Encarnacion
SS Alex Gonzalez
LF free agent
CF Chris Dickerson
RF Jay Bruce
C Wilkin Castillo
IF Jeff Keppinger
IF Adam Rosales
OF Chris Dickerson
OF Norris Hopper
SP Edinson Volquez
SP Aaron Harang
SP Johnny Cueto
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Micah Owings
RP Francisco Cordero
RP Jared Burton
RP Bill Bray
RP Matt Belisle
RP Gary Majewski
RP Todd Coffey
RP Bobby Livingston

Then there are the rest of the guys currently on the 40-man roster:
(9)
C Craig Tatum
1B Yonder Alonso
2B Danny Richar
SS Paul Janish
SP Homer Bailey
SP Daryl Thompson
SP Ramon Ramirez
RP Ty Pelland
RP Danny Herrera

That leaves only six spots to protect players from the rule five draft (or to prevent Gutierrez, Cumberland, Smit, and/or James from leaving as minor league free agents).

1B Tonys Gutierrez
2B Luis Bolivar
2B Drew M. Anderson
3B Mike Griffin
3B Eric Eymann
OF Shaun Cumberland
OF Sean Henry
OF Drew T. Anderson
SP Matt Maloney
SP Pedro Viola
SP Sam LeCure
SP Alex Smit
SP Justin Mallett
RP Carlos Fisher
RP Robert Manuel
RP Justin James
RP Ramon Geronimo
(There are many others who are eligible, but I think I listed the most likely to be selected, and even a few of them would be shocking choices.)

Belisle and Coffey are probably going to be non-tendered and that LF you have listed will probably be in exchange for some one else on the roster. That would leave 9 spots for Gutierrez, Eymann, Cumberland, Henry, Maloney, Viola, Lecure, Fisher and Manuel. The Reds may also DFA Majewski and Livingston which would leave room for Smit and Geronimo (though they may be left off). It wouldn't surprise me to see Hopper and Pelland let go either. I also expect the Reds to make a couple quantity for quality deals that might make more room.

[camisadelgolf]

Freel is signed through 2009. So he would need to be added to the 25. Also you have Dickerson listed twice.

Dickerson is listed twice on your 25-man.

Thanks. I meant to have Ryan Freel listed instead of one of the Chris Dickersons.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm pretty sure that was speculation from a poster on here. Besides, what's wrong with keeping them both and having a strong bullpen?

There's nothing wrong with having both of them on the Major League roster next year. It's just that the 40-man roster will be crowded enough, and if Carlos Fisher is going to be on the 40-man roster anyway, why be in a hurry to add Roenicke to the 25-man roster?

Just to be more clear, I'm not opposed to adding Roenicke to the roster. It's just not necessary at this point, and although he has pitched almost 40 innings of successful baseball, I don't necessarily think he's ready to be an effective reliever for the Reds.

[camisadelgolf]

Do you not think Chris Valaika and Todd Frazier are ready to make the jump to AAA?

I think they could both handle AAA, but Valaika is blocked by Richar and Janish at the moment, and Frazier hasn't even played AA yet.

[camisadelgolf]

I don't know if it's a given that Mesoraco starts at Sarasota. He only had a .710 OPS in Dayton this year, and he'll still be 20 years old for the first two months of next season. I might keep in Dayton for a couple months, let him finish up at Sarasota, and hopefully have him start in Chattanooga as a 21 year old in 2010. He'd still be on track to hit the bigs at a pretty young age for a catcher.

You're right. It's certainly not a given that Mesoraco starts in Sarasota. But the Reds have some pretty decent catching depth in the low minors, and there's no one interesting in the system between Mesoraco and Craig Tatum, which is a pretty large gap, relatively speaking. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Mesoraco in Dayton again, but that taking away at-bats from Jordan Wideman, who seems to be advancing well, and giving lesser talents like Jason Bour and Jake Long more time behind the plate.

[camisadelgolf]

Belisle and Coffey are probably going to be non-tendered and that LF you have listed will probably be in exchange for some one else on the roster. That would leave 9 spots for Gutierrez, Eymann, Cumberland, Henry, Maloney, Viola, Lecure, Fisher and Manuel. The Reds may also DFA Majewski and Livingston which would leave room for Smit and Geronimo (though they may be left off). It wouldn't surprise me to see Hopper and Pelland let go either. I also expect the Reds to make a couple quantity for quality deals that might make more room.

Yeah, this is very good insight. You're right about those guys potentially being non-tendered/DFAed.

Personally, I would DFA Livingston (dime-a-dozen-type pitcher imo) and non-tender Coffey (just can't put it together for some reason), Majewski (could be over-priced after arbitration), and Belisle (could also be over-priced after arbitration).

That's ten spots free, eight of which I'd use to protect guys from the rule five draft.

[camisadelgolf]

. . . and Dallas Buck I think will be pushed and be in AA.

I like this statement. If I did this all again, I'd put Buck in AA and let Webb show he's recovered in Sarasota.

[JayBruceFan]

Daniel Guerrero needs to go

Ravin hasn't shown anything this season either. He has sub-par control and has shown that he is injury prone

Lotzkar will probably start in Dayton for the first couple months of next year due to his injury this season, his age and his lack of pro experience up to this point

Carson Kainer hasn't done anything to even warrant a sniff of AA

[camisadelgolf]

Daniel Guerrero needs to go

Ravin hasn't shown anything this season either. He has sub-par control and has shown that he is injury prone

Lotzkar will probably start in Dayton for the first couple months of next year due to his injury this season, his age and his lack of pro experience up to this point

Carson Kainer hasn't done anything to even warrant a sniff of AA

Guerrero showed promise before this year. I don't know what's up with him, but I'd be fine with letting him go.

What keeps Josh Ravin around is his $200,000 signing bonus. The Reds will want to get their money's worth before they let him go. His velocity has jumped up the past couple years, so maybe his control issues come from getting adjusted.

Yeah, I'm surprised I listed Kyle Lotzkar at Sarasota. I would put him in Dayton, move Del Rosario to the rotation, and bump Otterness (24-year-old lefty) to the Sarasota bullpen.

And you're absolutely right about Carson Kainer--he hasn't earned a promotion. But given his age, seniority, and lack of outfielders at that level, I have a feeling he'll get the nod. He's not very good, but it's not like he's so bad that it's embarrassing. I imagine the Reds will consider a lot of minor league free agents for the Chattanooga outfield anyway, though.

[Mario-Rijo]

You mention that not being on the 40-man roster shouldn't be a problem, but I'm not quite convinced of that. First, there's the 25-man roster. Let's say the Reds sign only one free agent.

(25)
C Ryan Hanigan
1B Yonder Alonso
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Edwin Encarnacion
SS Alex Gonzalez
LF Joey Votto
CF Chris Dickerson
RF Jay Bruce

C Bako or a FA Catcher w/ exp.
IF Jeff Keppinger
IF Jerry Hairston Jr.
UT Ryan Freel
OF Shaun Cumberland

SP Edinson Volquez
SP Aaron Harang
SP Johnny Cueto
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Micah Owings

RP Francisco Cordero
RP Jared Burton
RP Bill Bray
RP Jeremy Affeldt
RP Mike Lincoln
RP David Weathers
RP Nick Masset

Then there are the rest of the guys currently on the 40-man roster:
(9)
C Craig Tatum
C Wilkin Castillo
2B Danny Richar
SS Paul Janish
IF Adam Rosales
SP Homer Bailey
SP Daryl Thompson
RP Ramon Ramirez
RP Danny Herrera

Plus these 5 from your previous list who I think stick around.

OF Sean Henry
SP Matt Maloney
RP Carlos Fisher
RP Robert Manuel
SP Sam Lecure

With 1 spot left at this point and these remaining names with any shred of a chance to get the spot. Probably coming down to Smit and Geronimo

1B Tonys Gutierrez
RP Pedro Viola
SP Alex Smit
RP Ramon Geronimo

I could see something like this taking place. Be it a bit far fetched (Alonso) but with some logic to it. My best guess is that there is some definite trading on the horizon for a corner OF perhaps one the significance of a Matt Holliday to free up 2-3 spots on the 40 allowing Yonder to stay down for next season.

How about this trade for Holliday just because I thought of one just as I wrote this. Is there enough potential shine left on these guys to obtain 1 year of Holliday with the potential to sign a LTC? Lot of talent going out with high ceilings but with considerable question marks. IMO it clears up some issues accross the board, but not sure it's enough to get him and equally not sure it's not.

Homer Bailey
Drew Stubbs
Tyler Pelland
Juan Francisco

[camisadelgolf]

How about this trade for Holliday just because I thought of one just as I wrote this. Is there enough potential shine left on these guys to obtain 1 year of Holliday with the potential to sign a LTC? Lot of talent going out with high ceilings but with considerable question marks. IMO it clears up some issues accross the board, but not sure it's enough to get him and equally not sure it's not.

Homer Bailey
Drew Stubbs
Tyler Pelland
Juan Francisco

That's certainly an offer they'd have to listen to. We're talking about four different guys who have been considered top-ten prospects in the organization at different times. The thing is, the Rockies feel like they're not far off from winning the NL West (and they're not), so I think they would be looking to acquire more established players, particularly starting pitchers.

[Mario-Rijo]

That's certainly an offer they'd have to listen to. We're talking about four different guys who have been considered top-ten prospects in the organization at different times. The thing is, the Rockies feel like they're not far off from winning the NL West (and they're not), so I think they would be looking to acquire more established players, particularly starting pitchers.

Thing is I'm not sure they can do a deal better than this currently for a guy who is in the final year of his contract. Although I can see the NYY's coming after him for a package headed by Hughes and maybe Nady with some filler. The good thing about our deal is it's alot more cost effective for the Rox with 3 of the 4 afore mentioned players never having been in the bigs yet. But w/ 3 of them close enough to potentially contribute very soon.

[redsof72]

Speaking only of players I have seen this season: Tough to say on Soto. Hard for me to see them moving either Soto or Waring to left field. Neither has the speed for the outfield. I would guess they will either move Waring to first base or start Soto in Dayton. I would expect Mesoraco to start in Dayton. Bour can handle it in Sarasota. Lotzkar would start in Dayton almost certainly. If Jamie Arneson is not released, I would hope he would be in the bullpen. The problem with Arneson and Ravin this season in Dayton, aside from being awful, were that they killed the relief corps because they were constantly out of the game in the third or fourth inning every time out. If they don't have better options for the Dayton rotation than Arneson and Ravin, something is seriously wrong. I would expect Partch in the Dayton rotation. They like his fastball that tops out at 94.

[camisadelgolf]

Speaking only of players I have seen this season: Tough to say on Soto. Hard for me to see them moving either Soto or Waring to left field. Neither has the speed for the outfield. I would guess they will either move Waring to first base or start Soto in Dayton. I would expect Mesoraco to start in Dayton. Bour can handle it in Sarasota. Lotzkar would start in Dayton almost certainly. If Jamie Arneson is not released, I would hope he would be in the bullpen. The problem with Arneson and Ravin this season in Dayton, aside from being awful, were that they killed the relief corps because they were constantly out of the game in the third or fourth inning every time out. If they don't have better options for the Dayton rotation than Arneson and Ravin, something is seriously wrong. I would expect Partch in the Dayton rotation. They like his fastball that tops out at 94.

I can't think of a good reason to move Soto off of third base (unless someone thinks he'll always be too error prone). Brandon Waring was just named the best defensive third baseman in the MWL, so I don't think it makes sense to move him off the position either. If you did, though, it would have to be to first base. It would mean taking at-bats away from Yonder Alonso or Logan Parker, though.

I could see Jamie Arneson being released, but I think he'll stay. The same goes for Josh Ravin. The reason they throw so many innings is because they have so much potential. You're absolutely right about Lotzkar repeating Dayton, though. I'm not sure what I was thinking.

[JayBruceFan]

Am I the only one that thinks Brandon Waring should start 2009 in back in Dayton?

He struck out way too much this year and doesn't show much pitch recognition from what I've seen from him.

And don't let the 20 HR's fool you, he struggled to get there.

Sure he has decent power but that's about all he has. He has below average to almost no speed at all either